nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalMaximum number of Democratic Governors after the 2018 Elections.
1)AZ- Farley-D
2)CA-Newsom-D
3)CO- Polis-D
4)CT-Drew-D
5)DE-Carney-D
6)FL-Graham-D
7)GA-Abrams-D
8)HI-Hanabusa-D
9)IL-Pritzker-D
10)KS-Brewer-D
11)LA-Bel Edwards-D
12)ME-Eves-D
13)MD-Baker-D
14)MI-Whitmer-D
15)MN-Walz-D
16)MT-Bullock-D
17)NV-Sisolak-D
18)NH-Marchand-D
19)NJ-Murphy-D
20)NM-Lujan Grisham-D
21)NY-Cuomo-D
22)NC-Cooper-D
23)OH-Cordray-D
24)OR-Brown-D
25)PA-Wolf-D
26)RI-Raimondo-D
27)TN-Dean-D
28)VA-Northam-D
29)WA-Inslee-D
30)WI-Wachs-D
Maximum number of US Senate seats Democrats will have after 2018.
53
Democrats will hold onto
CA 24
CT 25
DE 26
FL 27
HI. 28
IN. 29
ME. 30
MD. 31
MA. 32
MI. 33
MN. 34
MN Special. 35
MO. 36
MT. 37
NJ. 38
NM. 39
NY. 40
ND. 41
OH. 42
PA. 43
RI. 44
VT. 45
VA. 46
WA. 47
WV. 48
WI. 49
Democrats will pick up
AZ. 50
AZ Special. 51
NV. 52
TN. 53
2018 US House Elections- Districts that Democrats will pick up.
1)AZ-2
2)CA-10
3)CA-21
4)CA-25
5)CA-39
6)CA-45
7)CA-48
8)CA-49
9)CO-6
10)FL-26
11)FL-27
12)GA-6
13)IL-6
14)IL-12
15)IL-13
16)IA-1
17)IA-3
18)KS-2
19)KS-3
20)KS-4
21)KY-6
22)ME-2
23)MI-8
24)MI-11
25)MN-2
26)MN-3
27)MT-AL
28)NE-2
29)NJ-2
30)NJ-7
31)NJ-11
32)NM-2
33)NY-11
34)NY-19
35)NY-22
36)NY-24
37)PA-6
38)PA-7
39)PA-8
40)PA-15
41)PA-16
42)PA-18
43)TX-7
44)TX-23
45)UT-4
46)VA-2
47)VA-10
48)WA-8
49)AK-AL if Begich-D runs.
US House Delegations going from Republican Majority to Democratic Majority.
AZ(4D 5R) to (5D 4R) AZ-2/what are the Democrats chances in winning AZ-8 in the special election? 6D 3R
CO(3D 4R) to (4D 3R) CO-6
IA(1D 3R) to (3D 1R) IA-1 and IA-3
KS(0D 4R) to (3D 1R) KS-2,KS-3,and KS-4
PA(5D 13R) to ( 10D 8R) PA-6,PA-7,PA-8,PA-15,and PA-18
VA(4D 7R) to (6D 5R) VA-10 and either VA-2,VA-5,or VA-7
A recent poll by PPP shows that MN voters did not want Franken to resign from the US Senate 50-42.
Franken can get back into the US Senate 2 ways.
1)Challenge Tina Smith in Democratic Primary for Franken"s old US Senate seat in 2020.
2)Hope for Klobuchar to be on the 2020 Democratic Presidential/Vice Presidential Ticket win the electoral college vote. The Democratic Governor of MN appoints Franken to Klobuchar" old US Senate seat in 2021.
Likely Scenario for Democrats in the 2018 US Senate, US House, and Governors race.
2018 US Senate Election
Democrats will hold onto competitive Democratic held US Senate seats in FL,IN,ME,MI,MN special,MT,NJ,ND,OH,PA,VA,WV,and WI but lose MO. -1D 48D 52R
Democrats will pick up AZ,NV,and TN +3D 51D 49R
If there is a 2018 special election in AZ and MS, Democrats will pick up AZ Special and MS Special if Brandon Presley-D is the Democratic Nominee and McDaniel-R or Another rightwing extremist is the Republican nominee. MS State House Minority Leader David Baria-D who represents the Gulf Coast Region of MS should run for one of the MS US Senate seats- the seat that Presley-D is not a candidate for.
2018 US House Election
Democrats will hold onto competitive Democratic held US House Seats in AZ-1,AZ-9,CA-7,CA-24,FL-7,FL-13,IL-17,IA-2,MN-7,
MN-8,NV-3,NV-4,NJ-5,NY-3,NY-18,OR-5,PA-17, and WI-3 but lose MN-1 and NH-1 -2D 192D 243R
Democrats will pick up
PA-18 on March 13, 2018 and retain it on November 2018. 193D
AZ-2. 194D
CA-10. 195D
CA-21. 196D
CA-25. 197D
CA-39. 198D
CA-48. 199D
CA-49. 200D
CO-6. 201D
FL-26. 202D
FL-27. 203D
IL-6. 204D
IA-1. 205D
KS-2. 206D
MI-11. 207D
MN-2. 208D
MN-3. 209D
NE-2. 210D
NJ-2. 211D
NJ-11. 212D
NM-2. 213D.
NY-19. 214D
NY-22. 215D
NY-24. 216D
PA-15. 217D
TX-7. 218D
TX-23. 219D
VA-10. 220D
WA-8. 221D
2018 Governors Race
Democrats hold onto competitive Democratic held Governors seats in CO,CT,MN,OR,PA,and RI. 16D 33R
Democrats will pick up AZ,FL,IL,MD,MI,NV-if Miller-D runs,NH,and NM 24D 25R 1I
Independents will pick up ME. 24D 24R 2I.
Beto O'Rourke(D-TX) should be the 2020 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee.
O'Rourke(D-TX) is running a strong campaign for the 2018 TX US Senate Race against the incumbent Cruz(R-TX). Due to the Republican Party advantage in Texas, O'Rourke-D faces an uphill battle in winning the 2018 TX US Senate Race. If O'Rourke-D wins or comes close to winning the 2018 TX US Senate Race, he should be the Vice Presidential runningmate to whoever is the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee.
O'Rourke is young,handsome,charismatic and a great speaker/debator. He has a progressive voting record and is fluent is Spanish. Putting O'Rourke on the 2020 Democratic Presidential/Vice Presidential Ticket can turn TX into a purple/swing state and Democrats can pick up AZ,FL,GA,and NC along with MI,PA, and WI. 349ev.
2018 MS US Senate Elections- Which seat should Brandon Presley-D run for?
MS Class 1 (Wicker-R) Wicker-R faces a tough primary challenge against McDaniel-R. McDaniel-R has a greater than 50-50 chance of winning the Republican nomination. In a matchup against McDaniel, Presley can portray McDaniel as a crazy extremist. In a matchup against Wicker-R, Presley can portray Wicker as corrupt sellout. Presley can campaign as a populist outsider.
MS Class 3(VACANT Cochran-R) Republican candidates are Harper-R ,Palazzo-R or Pickering-R or Governor Bryant can appoint himself to give Lt Governor Tate Reeves the incumbency advantage in the 2019 MS Governors Race. Democrats should nominate former MS Attorney General Mike Moore. A popular 4 term State Attorney General known for suing big tobacco in 1990's.
This will give Democrats an opportunity in picking up both MS US Senate Seats.
Current US Senators likely to be the longest serving US Senator in US History.
Longest serving former US Senator
Byrd(D-WV)51 years
Longest serving current US Senator
Leahy(D-VT)elected in 1974- seeks re-election in 2022 and retires in 2028. 54 years
Hatch(R-UT)elected in 1976- gets re-elected in 2018 and retires in 2024. 48 years
2018 US Senate,House,and Gubernatorial Election-Best and worse case scenario for Democrats.
Best case scenario for Democrats
US Senate
Democrats hold onto all of the Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2018 including IN and MO- the two most vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats up in 2018 and pick up AZ,NV,TX,TN and AZ Special. +5D 54D 46R
US House
Democrats hold onto all of the Democratic held US House seats up in 2018 including MN-1,MN-8,NV-3,NH-1,and NJ-5- The five most vulnerable Democratic held US House Seats up in 2018 and pick up:
1)AZ-2
2)CA-10
3)CA-21
4)CA-25
5)CA-39
6)CA-45
7)CA-48
8)CA-49
9)CO-6
10)FL-26
11)FL-27
12)GA-6
13)IL-6
14)IL-12
15)IL-13
16)IA-1
17)IA-3
18)KS-2
19)KS-3
20)KY-6
21)ME-2
22)MI-8
23)MI-11
24)MN-2
25)MN-3
26)MT-AL
27)NE-2
28)NJ-2
29)NJ-7
30)NJ-11
31)NM-2
32)NY-11
33)NY-19
34)NY-22
35)NY-24
36)NC-9
37)PA-6
38)PA-7
39)PA-8
40)PA-15
41)PA-16
42)PA-18
43)TX-7
44)TX-23
45)TX-32
46)UT-4
47)VA-2
48)VA-5
49)VA-7
50)VA-10
51)WA-8
51 seat gain in the US House. 245D 193R
Governorship
Democrats hold onto all of the Democratic held Governorships up in 2018 and pick up
AZ,FL,IL,KS,ME,MD,MI,NV,NH,NM,OH,TN,and WI. +13D 29D 20R 1I
Worse case scenario for Democrats
US Senate
Lose IN and MO, Pick up AZ,NV,TN, and AZ Special. +2D 51D 49R
US House
Pick up
1)AZ-2
2)CA-10
3)CA-25
4)CA-39
5)CA-48
6)CA-49
7)CO-6
8)FL-26
9)FL-27
10)IL-6
11)IA-1
12)KS-3
13)ME-2
14)MI-11
15)MN-2
16)MN-3
17)NE-2
18)NJ-2
19)NJ-11
20)NY-19
21)NY-22
22)PA-6
23)PA-8
24)PA-15
25)TX-7
26)TX-23
27)VA-10
28)WA-8
28 seat gain in the US House 222D 213R
Governorship
Pick up AZ,FL,IL,ME,MD,MI,NH,NM,and WI +9D 25D 24R 1I
Profile Information
Member since: Tue May 24, 2022, 10:37 AMNumber of posts: 8,617
