nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018 US Senate Election- The most vulnerable Democratic and Republican held seats.
Lean Takeover
AZ(OPEN-Flake-R)
NV(Heller-R)
Tossup
TN(OPEN-Corker-R)
ND(Heitkamp-D)
MO(McCaskill-D)
Lean Retention
IN(Donnelly-D)
FL(Nelson-D)
TX(Cruz-R)
MS(Hyde Smith-R)
How Democrats regain control of the US Senate in 2018 and retain control for the next 10 years with
A Democrat in the White House(2021 to 2029)
2018
Hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2018 and Pick up AZ and NV. +2D 51D 49R
2020
Lose AL, Pick up AZ-special,CO,ME-open,and NC. +3D 54D 46R
2022
Lose AZ, Pick up PA,and WI.+1D 55D 45R
2024
Lose IN(Holcomb-R defeats Donnelly-D) -1D 54D 46R
2026
Lose NC -1D 53D 47R
If all of the Democratic US Senate Incumbents up for re-election in 2018 win re-election this year,
The likelihood of some of them holding onto their seats in 2024 is 50-50.
Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election likely to stay Democratic
AZ(Sinema-D)
CA(OPEN-Feinstein-D)I am assuming DiFi serves out her term.
CT(Murphy-D)
DE(OPEN-Carper-D) Lisa Blunt Rochester-D
FL(OPEN-Nelson-D) Stephanie Murphy-D
HI(OPEN-Hirono-D) Tulsi Gabbard-D
ME(OPEN-King-I/D)Hannah Pingree-D
MD(OPEN-Cardin-D) Anthony Brown-D
MA(Warren-D)
MI(Stabenow-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
MO(McCaskill-D)
MT(Tester-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
ND(Heitkamp-D)
OH(Brown-D)
PA(Casey-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
VT(OPEN-Sanders-I/D) David Zuckerman-P/D
VA(Kaine-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
WV(Manchin-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
Democratic held US Senate seats up in 2024 likely to flip
IN(Donnelly-D)Eric Holcomb-R
TN(OPEN Bredesen-D) Beth Harwell-R
Red State Democratic incumbent US Senators MO(McCaskill-D),MT(Tester-D)ND(Heitkamp-D)and WV(Manchin-D) win re-election in 2024 due to weak Republican opposition.
2020 and 2022 US Senate Election- Number of seats Democrats will gain or lose in both cycle?
2018
Best case scenario for Democrats-Hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2018 and Pick up AZ(Sinema-D),NV(Rosen-D),and TN(Bredesen-D) +3D 52D 48R
Worse case scenario for Democrats- Lose IN(Donnelly-D),MO(McCaskill-D),and/or ND(Heitkamp) and Pick up AZ(Sinema-D) and/or NV(Rosen-D) -1D 48D 52R
2020
Best case scenario- Hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2020 and Pick up
AK(Begich-D,Berkowitz-D,or French-D)
AZ special(Gallego-D,Kelly-D,Kirkpatrick-D,or Stanton-D)
CO(Hickenlooper-D,Johnston-D,Kennedy-D,Neguse-D, Perlmutter-D, Polis-D or Salazar-D)
GA(Abrams-D,Evans-D,Holcomb-D,or Reed-D)
IA(Boulton-D,Loebsack-D,or Vilsack-D)
KY- if McConnell-R retires(Beshear,Conway,Edelen,or Grimes-D)
ME- If Collins-R retires(Michaud-D or Pingree-D)
MS- If McDaniel-R is the incumbent( Baria-D,Childers-D,or Hood-D)
MT(Bullock-D,Cooney-D,or Schweitzer-D)
NC(Foxx-D,Jackson-D,Ross-D, or Stein-D)
TX- If Cornyn-R retires(Castro-D or O'Rourke-D)
+11D 59 to 63D/37R to 41R
Worse case scenario-Lose AL(Jones-D) and Pick up
AZ special,CO,ME-Open,and NC.
+3D 51 to 55D/45R 49R
2022- If Trump or Pence is President
Best case scenario for Democrats-Hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2022 and Pick up
AK(Berkowitz-D or French-D)
FL(Graham-D or Murphy-D)
GA(Abrams-D,Evans-D,or Holcomb-D)
IA(Boulton-D or Finkenauer-D)
MO(Galloway-D or Kander-D)
NC(Foxx-D,Jackson-D, or Stein-D)
OH(Cordray-D,Ryan-D, or Sutton-D)
PA(Cartwright-D or Lamb-D)
WI(Bryce-D,Kind-D,or Pocan-D)
+9D 60 to 72D/28R to 40R
Worse case scenario for Democrats- Lose AZ and Pick up
FL,NC,PA,and WI.
+3D 54 to 66D/34R to 46R
2022- If a Democrat is President
Best case scenario-Hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2022 and pick up
FL,NC,PA,and WI.
+4D 55 to 67D/33R to 45R
Worse case scenario-Lose AZ
-1D 50 to 62D/38R to 50R
How Democrats could get 67 US Senate seats by 2022 making Trump removal from office real?
2018
Hold onto all of the Democratic held seats up in 2018,
Pick up AZ(Sinema-D),NV(Rosen-D),and TN(Bredesen-D) +3D 52D 48R
2020
Hold onto all of the Democratic held seats up in 2020 except AL(Jones-D)-1D 51D 49R
Pick up AK(Berkowitz-D), AZ special(Stanton-D),CO(Neguse-D),GA(Evans-D),IA(Boulton-D),ME(Pingree-D),MT(Williams-D),and NC(Ross-D)+8D 59D 41R
2022
Hold onto all of the Democratic held seats up in 2022,
Pick up AK(French-D),FL(Graham-D),GA(Holcomb-D),IA(Finkenauer-D),MO(Galloway-D),NC(Jackson-D),PA(Lamb-D),and WI(Bryce-D). +8D 67D 33R
2020 Presidential and 2022 Senate Election- If a Democrat wins the 2020 Presidential Election,
Which Democratic Senator up for re-election in 2022 is likely to lose?
AZ-The winner of the 2018/2020 special election.
CO-Bennet-D
NV-Cortez Masto-D
NH-Hassan-D
All of them
None of them
2018 US House Freshmen Democrats running for the US Senate in 2022.
IA-1 Abby Finkenauer-D to replace Grassley-R
PA-6 Chrissy Houlahan-D to replace Toomey-R
PA-17 Conor Lamb-D to replace Toomey-R
WI-1 Randy Bryce-D to replace Johnson-R
2018,2020,and 2022 US Senate Election- Democrats guide to 60 seats.
2018
1)AZ-Sinema-D
2)CA-Feinstein-D
3)CT-Murphy-D
4)DE-Carper-D
5)FL-Nelson-D
6)HI-Hirono-D
7)IN-Donnelly-D
8)ME-King-I/D
9)MD-Cardin-D
10)MA-Warren-D
11)MI-Stabenow-D
12)MN-Klobuchar-D
13)MO-McCaskill-D
14)MT-Tester-D
15)NV-Rosen-D
16)NJ-Menendez-D
17)NM-Heinrich-D
18)NY-Gillibrand-D
19)ND-Heitkamp-D
20)OH-Brown-D
21)PA-Casey-D
22)RI-Whitehouse-D
23)TN-Bredesen-D
24)VT-Sanders-I/D
25)VA-Kaine-D
26)WA-Cantwell-D
27)WV-Manchin-D
28)WI-Baldwin-D
2020
29)CO-Hickenlooper-D
30)DE-Coons-D
31)IL-Durbin-D
32)IA-Vilsack-D
33)MA-Markey-D
34)MI-Peters-D
35)MN-Smith-D
36)MT-Bullock-D
37)NH-Shaheen-D
38)NJ-Booker-D
39)NM-Udall-D
40)NC-Foxx-D
41)OR-Merkley-D
42)RI-Reed-D
43)VA-Warner-D
2022
44)AZ-Kelly-D
45)CA-Harris-D
46)CO-Bennet-D
47)CT-Blumenthal-D
48)FL-Graham-D
49)HI-Schatz-D
50)IL-Duckworth-D
51)IA-Culver-D
52)MD-Van Hollen-D
53)NV-Cortez Masto-D
54)NH-Hassan-D
55)NY-Schumer-D
56)NC-Cooper-D
57)OR-Wyden-D
58)PA-Lamb-D
59)VT-Leahy-D
60)WA-Murray-D
61)WI- Pocan-D
2018 US House Election- Democrats guide to a majority.
Democrats will lose PA-14 193
Democrats will gain
AZ-2 194
CA-10 195
CA-25 196
CA-39 197
CA-48 198
CA-49 199
CO-6 200
FL-26 201
FL-27 202
IL-12 203
IA-1 204
MI-11 205
MN-2 206
MN-3 207
NE-2 208
NJ-2 209
NJ-7 210
NJ-11 211
NY-19 212
NY-22 213
PA-1 214
PA-5 215
PA-6 216
PA-7 217
PA-17 218
TX-23 219
VA-10 220
WA-8 221
If there is a strong Democratic Wave
CA-45 222
IL-6 223
KS-2 224
KS-3 225
TX-7 226
UT-4 227
If both California US Senate Seats become vacant between December 2020 to January 2021,
Who replaces Feinstein-D?
Who replaces Harris?
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