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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
April 9, 2022

The maximum number of US Senate seats the Democrats will end up with in 2022/2023.

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)MD(Van Hollen-D)
40)HI(Schatz-D)
41)VT(Welch-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)NC(Beasley-D)
53)WI(Barnes-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)





April 9, 2022

Democrats guide to remaining in the majority in the US House of Representatives in 2022.

Democrats will lose
AZ-2(O’Halleran-D) 1
AZ-6(Kirkpatrick-D) 2
CA-9(McNerney-D) 3
CA-42(Roybal Allard-D or Lowenthal-D) 4
GA-7(McBath-D or Boudreaux-D) 5
IL-6(Casten-D or Newman-D) 6
IA-3(Axne-D) 7
KS-3(Davids-D) 8
ME-2(Golden-D) 9
MI-7(Slotkin-D) 10
MI-8(Kildee-D) 11
MI-11(Levin-D or Stevens-D) 12
MI-12(Lawrence-D) 13
NH-1(Pappas-D) 14
NJ-7(Malinowski-D) 15
OH-9(Kaptur-D) 16
PA-7(Wild-D) 17
PA-8(Cartwright-D) 18
TN-5(Cooper-D) 19
TX-34(Vela-D) 20
VA-2(Luria-D) 21
WI-3(Kind-D) 22
Democrats will gain
CA-13)21
CA-22)20
CA-27)19
CA-45)18
CO-8)17
FL-28)16
IL-3)15
IL-13)14
MI-3)13
MI-13)12
NM-2)11
NY-1)10
NY-11)9
NY-22)8
NC-14)7
OH-1)6
OR-6)5
TX-15)4
TX-35)3
Democrats will have a net loss of 3 seats.








April 9, 2022

2022 US Senate Election Prediction- Democrats will remain in the majority in the US Senate in 2023.

Democrats guide to 50
37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)HI(Schatz-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)NC(Beasley-D)
53)WI(Barnes-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)



April 8, 2022

Democratic held US House seats that Democrats could lose?

1)WI-3
2)VA-2
3)TN-5
4)PA-8
5)PA-7
6)OH-9
7)NJ-7
8)NH-1
9)MI-7
10)MI-8
11)MI-11
12)MI-12
13)ME-2
14)KS-3
15)IA-3
16)GA-6
17)AZ-2
18)AZ-6
19)CA-9
20)CA-42

US House seats that the Democrats will gain.
19)CA-13
18)CA-22
17)CA-27
16)CA-45
15)CO-8
14)IL-13
13)MI-3
12)MI-13
11)NM-2
10)NY-1
9)NY-11
8)NY-22
7)NC-14
6)OH-1

Democrats will have a net loss of 6 seats.





April 8, 2022

US Senate seats that the Democrats will win in 2022 to stay in the majoriy.

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)CA(Padilla-D)
39)NY(Schumer-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)VT(Welch-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)NC(Beasley-D)
53)WI(Barnes-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)





April 8, 2022

2022 US Senate Election Prediction. Democrats will gain 2 seats.

Democrats will win
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CA(Padilla-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)



April 8, 2022

The Blueprint polling firm is unreliable!

The so called Democratic polling firm released a poll in March 2022 for the 2022 US Senate Election in GA showing Walker-R ahead of Warnock-D by 4 points and NV showing Laxalt-R ahead of Cortez Masto-D by 7 points. Democrats guide to 50 seats without NV
37)CA(Padilla-D) vs another D in 11/2022 like in 2016(Harris-D vs Sanchez-D) and 2018(Feinstein-D vs DeLeon-D).
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)MD(Van Holden-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)WI(Barnes-D)/NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)NC(Beasley-D)/WI(Barnes-D)
52)GA- 1/2023 runoff. (Warnock-D)/NC(Beasley-D)


April 8, 2022

Which Democratic held US Senate seat up for re-election in 2022 that might flip?

None of the Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022 will flip but the most vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seat up for re-election in 2022 is NV(Cortez Masto-D).
Democrats are definitely going to hold onto
CO(Bennet-D)46
NH(Hassan-D)47
AZ(Kelly-D)48
GA(Warnock-D)49 (1/2023 runoff)
Democrats are definitely going to pick up PA,WI,and NC.

April 8, 2022

US Senate seats that the Democrats will win in 2022 in order to make Manchin and Sinema irrevelant.

GA(Warnock-D vs Walker-R) is going to be decided in the 1/2023 general election runoff.
Democrats need to get 51 or 52 seats before GA.
37)CA(Padilla-D) vs another Democrat like in 2016 and 2018.
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)/NC(Beasley-D)
52)NC(Beasley-D)/GA(Warnock-D)

April 7, 2022

Who is more likely to win?

Mandela Barnes(D-WI) or Cheri Beasley(D-NC) or both or neither?
I expect Democrats to win AZ(Kelly-D),GA(Warnock-D),NV(Cortez Masto-D) and PA(Fetterman-D).
OH(Ryan-D) is a bonus seat for Democrats.

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