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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
July 11, 2022

Maximum number of US Senate seats the Democrats might win in 2022 is 20.

1/37)NY(Schumer-D)
2/38)HI(Schatz-D)
3/39)CA(Padilla-D)
4/40)VT(Welch-D)
5/41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
6/42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
7/43)IL(Duckworth-D)
8/44)OR(Wyden-D)
9/45)WA(Murray-D)
10/46)CO(Bennet-D)
11/47)AZ(Kelly-D)
12/48)NH(Hassan-D)
13/49)PA(Fetterman-D)
14/50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
15/51)GA(Warnock-D)
16/52)WI(Barnes-D)
17/53)OH(Ryan-D)
18/54)NC(Beasley-D)
19/55)FL(Demings-D)
20/56)IA(Franken-D)

July 11, 2022

Can the Democrats win 22 US Senate Elections in 2022?

1)AZ(Kelly-D)
2)CA(Padilla-D)
3)CO(Bennet-D)
4)CT(Blumenthal-D)
5)FL(Demings-D)
6)GA(Warnock-D)
7)HI(Schatz-D)
8)IL(Duckworth-D)
9)IA(Franken-D)
10)MD(Van Hollen-D)
11)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
12)NH(Hassan-D)
13)NY(Schumer-D)
14)NC(Beasley-D)
15)OH(Ryan-D)
16)OR(Wyden-D)
17)PA(Fetterman-D)
18)VT(Welch-D)
19)WA(Murray-D)
20)WI(Barnes-D)

Democrats need to hope that McMullin-UT caucuses with the Democrats if elected.
Greitens(R-MO) wins the Republican nomination.
How strong are Likely Democratic nominees in
IN(McDermott-D)
KS(Holland-D)
KY(Booker-D)
MO(Kunce-D)
OK special(Horn-D)

July 11, 2022

Which 2022 Democratic US Senate nominee is going to win by a wider margin?

Tim Ryan-OH or Mandela Barnes-WI?

Ryan is running in a open seat election against a first time candidate. Ryan is running in a Republican leaning swing state.
Barnes is running against a 2 term incumbent who twice defeated the beloved Russ Feingold. Barnes is running in a Democratic leaning swing state.

July 11, 2022

US Senate seats up in 2022 that the Democrats will win by a solid to slight margin.

37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)NY(Schumer-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

July 11, 2022

US Senate seats that the Democrats will win in 2022 by a solid to slight margin.

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)



July 10, 2022

US Senate seats up in 2022 that the Democrats are gonna win.

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)PA(Fetterman-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)



July 10, 2022

Between the 2022 US Senate Races in GA,OH,and WI.

Which Democratic US Senate Nominee will win by a wider margin?

GA- Warnock-D is a more popular than expected Democratic incumbent. Walker-R is a more unpopular than expected Republican challenger. GA is trending Democrat.
OH- Democrats have nominated the best candidate. Ryan-D. Republicans have nominated the worst candidate. Vance-R. OH is a red state so the race will be closer than expected.
WI- Barnes-D vs Johnson-R is currently close. We need to see how Barnes does after he wins the Democratic nomination.

July 10, 2022

US Senate seats up in 2022 that the Democrats will be likely to win.

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)VT(Welch-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)HI(Schatz-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)OH(Ryan-D)




July 10, 2022

US House seats that are key in keeping Democrats in the majority.

US House seats that Democrats will lose.
1)TN-5(OPEN Cooper-D)
2)NY-12(Either Maloney-D or Nadler-D)
3)MI-11(Either Levin-D or Stevens-D)
4)MI-12(Lawrence-D)
5)IL-6(Newman-D)
6)GA-7(Bourdeaux-D)
7)FL-2(Lawson-D)
9)FL-7(OPEN Murphy-D)
10)FL-13(OPEN Crist-D)
11)CA-9(McNerney-D)
12)CA-42(Roybal Allard-D/Lowenthal-D) will be replaced by Garcia-D.
Democrats will pick up
11)CA-13
10)CA-22
9)CA-27
8)CA-45
7)IL-3
6)IL-13
5)MI-3
4)MI-13
3)NM-2
2)NY-10
1)NY-18
0)NY-19
1)NY-22
2)NC-14
3)OH-1
4)OR-6
5)PA-1
6)TX-15
7)TX-35
Democrats will pick up 7 seats.
Democrats need to defend
6)AZ-2(O’Halleran-D)
5)AZ-6(OPEN Kirkpatrick-D)
4)IA-3(Axne-D)
3)KS-3(Davids-D)
2)ME-2(Golden-D)
1)MI-7(Slotkin-D)
0)MI-8(Kildee-D)
1)NH-1(Pappas-D)
2)NJ-7(Malinowski-D)
3)OH-9(Kaptur-D)
4)OH-13(OPEN Ryan-D)
5)PA-7(Wild-D)
6)PA-8(Cartwright-D)
7)PA-17(OPEN Lamb-D)
8)VA-2(Luria-D)
9)WI-3(OPEN Kind-D)

I see at worse a net loss of 9 seats.









July 10, 2022

US Senate seats up in 2022 that the Democrats will definitely win.

37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)OR(Wyden-D)
43)IL(Duckworth-D)
44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)PA(Fetterman-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

These seats are in states that Biden carried.

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