Polybius
Polybius's JournalJust did some Nevada Senate math, have questions
Of all the counties left, one big one favors Catherine Cortez Masto and that's Clark County (Washoe is a virtual tie, with CCM leading by 0.24%). Clark County is 88% in (with 608,429 votes), and CCM had a 5% lead. What I'm not sure about is does that the 608,429 are already in with 12% more to go, or does it mean that the total amount with everything when it reaches 100%?
If it means the the total once everything is in, then that means that there are 73,011 votes in that county left.
So if that trend holds, CCM be getting 52.5% of the votes. That would be 38,331 for her, and 34,680 for Adam Laxalt. That's a pickup of 3,651 votes for her. Plus, there are a few remaining Red counties left, some light where she can pick up votes.
Is there different data than the NYT is showing? Did I do some math wrong (I used to be good in math, but that was over 20 years ago lol). Scroll down to where it says "Where votes have been reported and where votes remain."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-nevada-us-senate.html
Holy shit, Idaho is nuts
Ammon Bundy got 17.2% of the vote! Brad Little (R) got 60.2% and Stephen Heidt (D) got 20.3%. 
Johnson prevails in Wisconsin Senate race that Democrats eyed as pickup opportunity
Source: CNN
Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will win reelection, CNN projects, defeating Mandela Barnes in a race that Democrats saw as one of their best flip opportunities in the midterm elections.
The victory is another demonstration of the remarkable political durability of Johnson, 67, who has now won three consecutive hard-fought elections, despite polls that long showed him among the least popular senators up for reelection this year.
In holding off Barnes – whom Democrats had viewed at the outset of this year’s election cycle as a potential rising star – Johnson has also bolstered the GOP’s hopes of winning control of the Senate.
Throughout the summer and fall, Republicans relentlessly focused their attacks on Barnes over crime.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/politics/ron-johnson-wisconsin-midterm-reelection/index.html
Abbott defeats O'Rourke in Texas governor's
Source: The Hill
O’Rourke gave a concession speech on Tuesday night, appearing to be in good spirits as he talked about the movement he started in conservative Texas.
The Democratic candidate said he mobilized a swell of voters in the state, even as he faced great odds against an incumbent governor and strong Republican rule.
This was O’Rourke’s second attempt at statewide office, following his unsuccessful bid for Senate in 2018. O’Rourke lost by just under 3 points to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), a surprisingly narrow defeat for a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
The Democratic candidate said he mobilized a swell of voters in the state, even as he faced great odds against an incumbent governor and strong Republican rule.
Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3725346-abbott-defeats-orourke-in-texas-governors-race/
Gov. Ron DeSantis cruises to re-election, solidifying GOP hold on Florida politics
Source: NBC News
MIAMI — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis notched a quick election night win, NBC News projected Tuesday, a victory that could become a springboard for a future White House run and put him on a collision course with former President Donald Trump.
DeSantis’ victory over former Rep. Charlie Crist — fueled by a massive cash advantage, political headwinds against Democrats like Crist and changing demographics in a reddening state — contrasted sharply with the governor’s election four years ago when he won by less than half a percentage point.
Sen. Marco Rubio also cruised to victory Tuesday night, NBC News projected, securing his third term amid a statewide Democratic collapse. He defeated Democratic Rep. Val Demings.
Now, as ballots continue to be tallied, DeSantis supporters and campaign insiders hope he wins bragging rights by exceeding Jeb Bush’s historic 2002 margin when he secured re-election as governor by 12.8 percentage points. DeSantis also might become the first Republican gubernatorial candidate since Bush to win Miami-Dade, the state’s largest county, which also has its largest Hispanic population and was once considered a Democratic bastion.
Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/gov-ron-desantis-cruises-re-election-solidifying-gop-hold-florida-poli-rcna56196
Just got back from voting
My district is NY-11. Nicole Malliotakis is the Congresswoman. It is a Red district, and the place where I vote is Bright, Bright Red, perhaps the Reddest in Staten Island.
Only once have I ever really had to wait more than a 10 minutes, and that was 2012. In midterm elections, there's never a wait of more than a couple of minutes.
Well, the lines were absolutely massive. I waited for nearly an hour. First, I blamed myself, getting there at 6:00. So I asked the poll worker how it's been all day. She said non-stop since the polls opened. She was in her 60's, and said that she has never seen anything like this for a midterm.
Hard to tell, but it seemed that there was a decent amount of younger voters.
Final 538 House and Senate predictions
59% chance Republicans take the Senate (most since June 14th). 84% chance Republicans take the House. Egads.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
Today is the election! What do you think will happen?
I asked the same question 25 days ago and one week ago. So, in your opinion, what is the most likely scenario after the election is over?
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