February 2, 2022

No, Ukraine Should Not Have Kept Nuclear Weapons

A bad idea comes around again.

https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/peacefield/61f9e4619d9e380022bdd931/no-ukraine-should-not-have-kept-nuclear-weapons/



The Russians are on the verge of dramatically expanding their previous invasion of Ukraine, this time with enough forces that they could roll through the streets of Kyiv. I will admit that when the Soviet Union collapsed 30 years ago, I did not expect that the new Russian Federation—poor, militarily weak, but finally free—could be, or would want to be, a threat to its neighbors. This was a failure of imagination on my part. But about one thing I was certain, and remain so: It’s a good thing that Ukraine never became a nuclear-weapons state. Now that the Russians are poised to invade, this bad idea is coming around again.

There are sensible people I respect who disagree about this, and so I think it’s worth a little time to consider that no matter how bad things might get, they would only be worse if Ukrainian nuclear weapons were involved. A series of historical and political circumstances have brought us to this point, going all the way back to how the USSR was created in the first place. (There are reasons, for example, that the Ukrainian state exists in its current borders and for why Crimea ended up a bone of contention, but that’s a subject I’ll explain in an additional newsletter later this week.) Today, let’s just ask a basic question: Would nuclear weapons have protected Ukraine now?

American “realists” like Professor John Mearsheimer, among others, think so. This is a simplistic answer, as realist answers so often are. It is a view of the world as something like a big game of Risk, in which all the countries are basically alike except for how many pretty colored chips they control. This approach leads foreign-policy analysts to say things that sound deep and logical, but make no sense when real countries, with real histories, governed by real people, get involved.

It also assumes that nuclear weapons are magical talismans that protect anyone who holds them. They’re talismans, alright. Like a Monkey’s Paw. Mearsheimer, for those unfamiliar with him, is the University of Chicago scholar who said back in 1990 that European stability might improve if Germany became an independent nuclear power. This is no slam on the Germans, but nobody—including the Germans—wanted that. He then said it about Ukraine in 1993 and 2014.

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February 2, 2022

How Democrats Can Stop a Red Wave

Republicans like their chances in November. But politics can change quickly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/01/us/politics/democrats-gop-red-wave.html



A “red wave” is building this year — or so we’re told. Republicans are confident that the country’s sour mood will sweep them back into power in Congress, mainly because Americans are fed up with the coronavirus and inflation. They think they’ll pick up 30 or so House seats and four or five seats in the Senate. “It’s crystal clear,” said Corry Bliss, a partner at FP1 Strategies, a consulting firm that helps Republicans. He added: “The red wave is coming. Period. End of discussion.”

But what if that’s wrong? We asked about two dozen strategists in both parties what would need to happen for Democrats to hold the House and Senate in November. And while we’re not making any predictions, it’s possible that Democrats could retain control of Congress. Difficult, but possible. Democrats have 222 seats in the House, and 50 seats in the Senate. That means Republicans need to pick up just six House seats and one Senate seat to take full control of Congress. Here’s what needs to happen for Democrats to pull off an upset in 2022:

Biden voters show up

Pundits often make it sound like voters are judiciously studying each party’s arguments and forming conclusions. But that’s not really the way American politics works. Modern elections are much more about mobilization (getting your supporters to the polls) than persuasion (convincing the other side’s supporters to switch), though both matter. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by more than 7 million votes in 2020. So for Democrats, winning in 2022 means figuring out how to get as many of those people as possible to vote, even though Trump won’t be on the ballot this time.

“Their primary motivation for voting in the last election was defeating Trump,” said Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, which on Monday announced a $30 million program of digital ads aimed at reaching what he calls “new Biden voters” in seven swing states. The last two elections — the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential vote — saw the biggest turnout in history. That means there’s an unusual amount of uncertainty among insiders about which voters will show up in 2022.

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February 2, 2022

Man United's Mason Greenwood further arrested on suspicion of sexual assault and threats to kill

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/01/man-utd-footballer-mason-greenwood-further-arrested-over-sexual-assault

Greater Manchester police say detectives have been further granted additional time to speak to suspect

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/01/man-utd-footballer-mason-greenwood-further-arrested-over-sexual-assault

Manchester United footballer Mason Greenwood has been further arrested on suspicion of sexual assault and making threats to kill. The 20-year-old was arrested on suspicion of rape and assault on Sunday afternoon after police saw a woman reporting claims of physical violence and sexual threats on social media. Greater Manchester police, who have not identified the player by name, said on Tuesday that a suspect had been further arrested on suspicion of sexual assault and making threats to kill.

Greenwood, who is regarded as one of England’s most talented young footballers, remains in custody being questioned by detectives. Officers have until Wednesday to either charge him or release him on police bail. The striker, who has played once for the England national team, was suspended from playing for or training with Manchester United until further notice after the allegations.

In a statement on Tuesday, Greater Manchester police said a suspect had been detained in custody on Sunday afternoon after it became aware of online social media images and videos posted by a woman alleging incidents of physical violence.

A spokesperson said: “Detectives have been granted further additional time to speak to a man in his 20s who was arrested on suspicion of rape and assault of a woman … “He continues to be questioned after magistrates authorised an extension until tomorrow, Wednesday 2 February. “Following inquiries so far, he has since been further arrested on suspicion of sexual assault and threats to kill.

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February 1, 2022

Denmark has lifted all of its domestic Covid-19 restrictions, including the wearing of face masks,

making it the first European Union country to do so.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60215200

Nightclubs have reopened, late-night alcohol sales have resumed, and the contact-tracing app is no longer needed to enter venues. While cases are still relatively high, the authorities say the virus no longer qualifies as a "critical threat". That is due to the country's high vaccination rate, experts say.

"We have an extremely high coverage of adults vaccinated with three doses," epidemiologist Lone Simonsen of the University of Roskilde told the AFP news agency. "With Omicron not being a severe disease for the vaccinated, we believe it is reasonable to lift restrictions," she said.

From Tuesday, masks are no longer required in shops, restaurants, and on public transport. Limits on the number of people allowed at indoor gatherings and social distancing measures also come to an end.

The national contact-tracing app is no longer required - although individual event organisers can still choose to make it a condition of entry.

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