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bluewater's JournalWarren, Biden running neck and neck in Democratic primary
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden are running neck and neck in the 2020 Democratic primary, a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday showed.
Twenty-nine percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic said they support Warren, while Biden received 26 percent support from the same group, a difference within the poll’s margin of error.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) came in third with 16 percent, while no other candidate broke double digits.
The three candidates had similar showings in a September Quinnipiac University poll, which saw Warren, Biden and Sanders at 27 percent, 25 percent and 16 percent, respectively.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/464886-warren-biden-running-neck-and-neck-in-democratic-primary-poll
Warren on top in higly rated live-caller Quinnipiac Poll
Biden...….. 26%
Sanders.... 16%
Buttigieg.....4%
Harris...…... 3%
Yang...…….. 3%
The Democratic Primary
With the next Democratic debate only a week away, Warren and Biden both keep their top of the pack positions in the Democratic primary, with Warren receiving support from 29 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic and Biden getting 26 percent support. Sanders seems to be the only other candidate left in the mix with the two frontrunners, receiving 16 percent of the vote. No other candidate tops 4 percent.
"Warren maintains her strength in the Democratic primary, which has been consistently growing since the start of her campaign. This poll confirms her status as a co-frontrunner with Biden," added Malloy.
This compares to a September 25 Quinnipiac University poll, in which Warren received 27 percent, Biden got 25 percent, and Sanders had 16 percent.
President Trump and the 2020 Election
Today, President Trump's job approval is nearly identical to a week ago - today, it is a negative 40 - 54 percent approval rating. Last week, his approval rating was a negative 41 - 53 percent. Looking ahead to the 2020 presidential election, he receives similar levels of support as his approval rating against top Democratic contenders:
Sanders tops Trump 49 - 42 percent, compared to 53 - 39 percent on August 28;
Warren wins against Trump 49 - 41 percent, compared to 52 - 40 percent on August 28.
From October 4 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,483 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 646 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3643
Poll: Warren and Biden running neck and neck as Sanders sinks
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden are running neck and neck with a large lead over the rest of the Democratic primary field, according to a national poll released Monday.
Warren was the first choice of 27 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents surveyed by Investor's Business Daily and TIPP, 1 percentage point ahead of Biden.
The Massachusetts lawmaker gained 3 points from the same survey in September, while Biden dropped from 28 percent to 26 percent support.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was the third most-popular choice of respondents, at 10 percent support in the new poll, a 2 point drop from last month.
South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) gained 2 points from September to now register at 7 percent support.
No other Democratic candidate cleared 3 percent support.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/464648-poll-warren-and-biden-neck-and-neck-as-sanders-sinks
538: What's Behind Elizabeth Warren's Rise In The Polls?
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has come a long way in the polls since the early days of her 2020 presidential campaign. Back in April, she was polling in the mid single digits nationally, but she now leads a number of national and early-state polls. And based on polls from September and August, Warren has expanded her support in a few overlapping directions — making inroads with groups and categories of voters she was previously struggling with. The result is that she is now positioned as the leading alternative to former Vice President Joe Biden. Here’s a look at where Warren has made inroads, so far:
Warren is appealing to more moderate voters now, too
Along with Sen. Bernie Sanders, Warren has long been a favorite among more liberal voters. And since June, she’s actually been the top choice among very liberal voters, according to polling from Quinnipiac University. Now, however, there’s evidence she’s picking up support from more moderate voters, too. In the latest Quinnipiac national survey, Warren not only inched ahead of Biden in overall support from Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents, 27 percent to 25 percent, but she also beat him for the first time in Quinnipiac’s polling among somewhat liberal voters, capturing 30 percent of that group to Biden’s 19 percent. (She was also the clear second choice among moderate or conservative voters, although Biden still had a 10-point lead there.)
Earlier in September, I wrote that it was good for Warren that she was doing so well among very liberal voters, but that it probably wasn’t enough to carve out a path to the nomination as the Democratic Party is roughly evenly split between liberals and moderates. But now, it seems as if Warren’s appeal is broadening beyond her ideological base of very liberal supporters.
Quinnipiac isn’t the only pollster who found this, either. Monmouth University’s September national survey found that Warren led with 37 percent of the vote from liberal voters and was also in second place among moderate or conservative respondents with 20 percent support — 10 points behind Biden’s 30 percent. This marked an uptick of 4 percentage points among these moderate or conservative voters since Monmouth’s August poll. Additionally, the latest YouGov/Economist national poll pegged Warren as the first choice for 15 percent of moderates — some distance behind Biden’s 30 percent, though still in second place. But this was still about twice the level of Warren’s support among moderates in late August.
For the past couple of months, Warren has been the leading candidate for college-educated voters, particularly white ones,1 but there are now signs she’s garnering support from voters who aren’t college educated, too. This is important for Warren because a plurality of Democratic voters are white voters without a college degree, and they currently form a key constituency for Biden and Sanders. And in Quinnipiac’s latest survey, Warren had 26 percent support among non-college whites, which put her in a near-tie with Biden at 27 percent and ahead of Sanders’s 19 percent. By comparison, in Quinnipiac’s late-August survey, Warren had 20 percent to Biden’s 30 percent among non-college whites and was roughly tied with Sanders, who had 19 percent support among that group.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-warrens-rise-in-the-polls/
Elizabeth Warren Aims To Build Appeal In Republican Strongholds
The Massachusetts senator has proven she’s popular in Democratic strongholds, perhaps most memorably when she filled New York’s Washington Square Park last month. But as she’s rising in the polls and sitting on a fresh pile of campaign cash, Warren is also frequently hitting places where she might be less welcome. That includes Nevada’s capital, a conservative area with a proud cowboy streak that’s a seven-hour drive from the glitz of Democrat-friendly Las Vegas.
These trips test whether the progressive message that has fueled Warren’s rise can resonate in all regions. It’s an important hurdle for Warren to clear to prove that, if she were to become the Democratic nominee, she could win back voters in areas that sided with President Donald Trump in 2016.
Her trip last week to Carson City gave reason for optimism. Warren drew more than 1,000 people on a Wednesday night. And some of the loudest applause followed Warren’s most progressive pronouncements, especially when she declared: “I don’t want a government that works for giant multinational corporations.”
“It’s easy to think everything here is Reno,” said Jonathan Byrnside, a 38-year-old federal employee who came to see Warren from nearby Silver City. He was referring to the better-known locale famous for casinos — and, in a bygone era, lenient divorce laws — about 25 miles away, where Warren’s airport run-in occurred. “But there are a lot of people with progressive values who live in rural areas.”
It was Warren’s third visit to northern Nevada and she’s not the only Democratic presidential hopeful venturing into Republican areas. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont came a few weeks ago, while former Vice President Joe Biden visited Reno the same night Warren was in Carson City. California Sen. Kamala Harris was on the campus of the University of Nevada at Reno the following day.
“This is huge for Carson City,” said 74-year-old Jim Woods, a retired construction engineer. Added his wife, Dianne: “This is red territory. It doesn’t look it now.”
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2019/10/07/elizabeth-warren-republicans-democratic-primary-nevada/
Last Week, Warren may have won the Democratic Race
by John Judis, editor-at-large at Talking Points Memo. He was a senior editor of The New Republic and senior writer for The National Journal.
At the risk of appearing foolhardy several months hence, I want to say that in the last week, it has become very likely that Elizabeth Warren will win the Democratic nomination. A two-tier race, with Warren, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders in the top tier, has become a race largely of Warren against herself.
Sanders – justifiably in my opinion, and I am of the same rough age – always faced questions about his age. These questions have been answered in the negative, sadly, by his recent heart attack. Voters will be right to doubt whether someone of Sanders’ age and medical history can handle one of the most stressful jobs on earth – especially, in Sanders’ case, because he would be coming into the job anew and face a hostile Washington and Wall Street. He needs to prepare for a graceful exit.
Biden, on paper, has always been the most electable Democrat, and if the presidential election had been held last month, he probably would have won. To undecided voters in swing states – and I always believe they number more than the political scientists claim – Biden comes off as “one of us.” It’s an inestimable advantage that Warren, for instance, doesn’t enjoy. He has also steered clear of extreme positions that would cost him in a general election. But Biden seems even slower on the uptake than in the past. I don’t believe these claims that he (or Trump for that matter) has dementia – enough with these amateur psychiatrists! – but he shows the disabilities of age.
A younger, quicker Biden might have nailed down the nomination this last week in response to Donald Trump’s predictably irresponsible attacks on him. He would have been all over the talk shows and on the stump. Instead, he has remained closeted, perhaps out of fear that if he does subject himself to questions, he will be stumble. To be sure, Hunter Biden may have been up to no good, but Biden could have used the attacks against his son to highlight his having to surmount a succession of family tragedies. One could feel this week the nomination slipping away from Biden.
That leaves Warren in a tier of her own unless she stumbles. Count me as an admirer. The left-wingers at Jacobin and Current Affairs like to contrast Sanders’s support for a “political revolution” with Warren as a would-be Washington insider, but Warren the outsider led the fight against the bankruptcy law and for the Consumer Finance protection Agency. She was a harsh and effective critic of the Obama White House’s timid approach to Wall Street in 2009. There’s little difference between her programs and Sanders’.
Warren’s problem, if anything, is that she is too close politically to Sanders and has heeded too much the siren call of the metropolitan and college town liberals. She needs to think about winning an electoral college majority in November 2020, and that means backing off programs that raise the specter of higher taxes for the working class or that would allow Trump to paint the Democrats as cultural elitists. That means moving away from Medicare for All, decriminalizing illegal immigration, and reparations. There is nothing wrong, for instance, with advocating Medicare for All as an ultimate goal and Medicare for Anyone as the immediate means to shore up the Affordable Care Act.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/last-week-warren-may-have-won-the-democratic-nomination
Eight of 12 Democratic Nominees Emerged Late
https://twitter.com/GallupNews/status/1180813721750425600https://twitter.com/carliemonett/status/1180840765980729344
Gallup's historical preference polls for the Republican and Democratic nominations show that much can change in voter preferences in the last six to 12 months before the parties' nominating conventions. Candidates who have emerged early on as the favorite among the party's rank-and-file often have succeeded in capturing the nomination. However, across both major parties, there are just as many examples of the winner not emerging from the field until the start of the election year or later.
The historical guidance for a vice presidential candidate, such as Joe Biden, isn't clear. All four sitting vice presidents who ran for their party's nomination succeeded: Gore in 2000, Bush in 1988, Humphrey in 1968 and Nixon in 1960. And of these, those who entered the race early (all but Humphrey) led the field early. Of the four candidates who ran as former vice presidents -- Dan Quayle in 2000, Mondale in 1984, Humphrey in 1972 and Nixon in 1968 -- two (Mondale and Nixon) led early and captured the nomination; one (Humphrey) picked up steam midway, but lost; and one (Quayle) never got off the ground, polling weakly in 1999 before dropping out after a few months.
Biden has led the field in national polls continuously all year, but with his margin over Elizabeth Warren narrowing a full four months before the start of the primary season, there is no precedent to indicate the likelihood he will hold on.
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/267179/democratic-nominees-often-secured-lead-late-campaign.aspx?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=o_social&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=
David Axelrod: she is now the frontrunner to win the Dem nomination.
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1180164011217825797David Axelrod knows a thing or two about successful presidential campaigns:
After Obama's election, Axelrod was appointed as Senior Advisor to the President.[1] Axelrod left the White House position in early 2011 and became the Senior Strategist for Obama's successful re-election campaign in 2012.[2][3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Axelrod_(political_consultant)
Warren Matches Sanders, Whips Biden, in Latest Fundraising Round
In a post yesterday on Joe Biden’s meh third-quarter fundraising haul, I suggested that its significance really depended on how the candidate nipping at his heels, Elizabeth Warren, did. Today we found out she did quite well, as NBC News reports:
The announcement comes as Warren, who has eschewed high-dollar events in favor of targeting small-dollar donations — continues to solidify her place at or near the top of the Democratic presidential field in both polling and fundraising. She was outpaced only by fellow progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders — who leads the pack with $25.3 million raised in the third quarter — and dwarfed the fundraising totals announced Thursday by former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign. Biden raised $15.2 million in the third quarter.
Warren’s campaign also reported she had over $25 million in cash on hand at the end of September, and was making its first paid ad buys of the cycle in the early states.
All in all, it validates the gamble Team Warren made in taking the big $10 million surplus she transferred from her Senate campaign account (which, for the record, she was able to raise without the no-big-dollar restrictions she’s placed on herself in her presidential fundraising) and investing it in expensive but vital field staff in the early states, in hopes that she would be able to pay for its maintenance and expansion as new money rolled in. At the moment, it’s all working for the Massachusetts senator, whose campaign seemed to be stalled earlier this year. The most recent polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and even California, and the latest big national poll (from Monmouth) all show her taking the lead. And aside from showing her overall financial strength, the third-quarter numbers indicate she’s keeping pace with Bernie Sanders’s small-dollar money machine, even as she has largely eclipsed him in the polls.
At the moment, you could say the Democratic race remains dominated by the Big Three of Warren, Biden, and Sanders (in whatever order you choose to rank them), with fundraising dominating by a Big Four (those three plus Pete Buttigieg, who raised $24 million in the third quarter and $19 million in the fourth). Everyone trailing these candidates in either metric needs to make a move soon as voters prepare to vote.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/elizabeth-warren-fundraising-third-quarter.html
Elizabeth Warren Says Trump Supporters 'Are Getting Really Nervous'
Elizabeth Warren said Trump supporters were "getting really nervous" and told supporters to stop chanting "lock him up" as a pro-Trump protestor heckled a rally in Nevada.
The Democratic primary candidate was speaking to backers in Carson City, Nevada, on Wednesday when a man in sunglasses appeared on a gallery above her and started heckling the crowd.
Warren supporters started chanting "lock him up" at the man as he paced the gallery holding up a "Keep America Great!"
Their chant mimicked the "lock her up" chant Donald Trump supporters directed at Hillary Clinton in the run up to the 2016 presidential election.
But the Massachusetts Senator quieted her supporters on Wednesday, waving away their chant and repeatedly saying: "No, no, no."
When the crowd had quietened down, she said: "There's a lot we need to do, and I understand that Donald Trump and his supporters are getting really nervous. And they have a good reason to be."
Supporters gave her comments a standing ovation as the pro-Trump protestor was escorted away.
https://www.newsweek.com/elizabeth-warren-trump-protestor-nevada-lock-him-1463167
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