bluewater
bluewater's Journal"Russia's military progress slows, but it makes gains in the south and east"
Even as a missile strike on Friday hit the outskirts of Lviv, a Ukrainian city that had been spared much of the Russian assault, the latest intelligence assessments indicate that Russian forces are still struggling to capture more territory as they try to push across Ukraine.
The British defense intelligence service said on Friday that Russian forces had made minimal progress this week, and that Ukrainian forces around the capital, Kyiv, had continued to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the city.
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Russias recent territorial gains have been mostly in the south and east of the country, including in the areas around Mariupol, according to assessments by Western governments and independent analysts. Russian forces have advanced from the southern city of Kherson, which they have captured, toward Kryvyi Rih, closer to the center of Ukraine.
Russia also continued its assaults on Mariupol from the east and west on Thursday, and on Friday its Defense Ministry said that Russian forces and Russia-backed separatists were tightening the noose around the city. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russians were carrying out the total destruction of civilian infrastructure, housing and livelihoods.
The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy in the north and northeast remain encircled and subject to heavy Russian shelling, British defense intelligence said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/world/europe/russia-military-ukraine.html
Why can't this be stopped?
The heroic Ukrainian Armed Forces have been sacrificing everything to fight the invasion, yet are unable to defend major cities from this destruction.
How can we, the US and NATO, actually put an end to this TERRORISM and save tens of thousands of innocent lives?
Ukrainian President Zelensky says NATO's Article 5 "has never been as weak as it is now"
Source: CNN
In an address on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his call to close Ukrainian airspace after a night of air alarms heard "almost all over" the country.
"Each of the more than 800 Russian missiles that have hit our country is an answer to a long-standing question about NATO whether the doors of the alliance are really open for Ukraine," Zelensky said while speaking from his office Tuesday afternoon. "If they were open, if it was honest, we would not have to convince the alliance for 20 days to close the skies over Ukraine, to close from the death being brought by the Russian Air Force. But ...they don't hear or don't want to hear us yet."
He went on to call out NATO's Article 5, the principle of collective defense, "weak" as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues.
"Some states of alliance have intimidated themselves, saying that they can't answer. That they cannot collide with Russian missiles and planes in the Ukrainian sky. Because this, they say, will lead to escalation, will lead to the Third World War.
And what will they say if Russia goes further to Europe, attacking other countries? I am sure the same thing they say to Ukraine. Article 5 of the NATO treaty has never been as weak as it is now. This is just our opinion," he said.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-15-22/h_d9b893d94a3533f0d79d3d7447cd64d1
Resident of Mariupol paints grim picture of situation: "This is horror"
Here is what the resident said:
"The town of Mariupol, March 13. The 18th day of the war. The town is besieged....
Theres no humanitarian aid and will not be. The evacuation of peaceful people is impossible. People are in a devastating situation. Water, food are coming to an end, people are forced to break into shops, in search for necessities , including logs - its minus 7 right now . And heres what we see in every shop.
Russian military vehicles and also from DNR [the Russian-backed Peoples Republic of Donetsk] are not ashamed of air strikes, the town is under air strikes, and shelling from grads and mortars...
There are thousands of victims among peaceful civilians in all parts of the city! I've been on the left side, now I am in Illicha [a district of Mariupol] Its like a meat grinder here.
We feel bitterness, desperation this land has been soaked with this
Russians came here under a reasonable, in their view, proposition, but they sowed despair fear, bitterness they have taken away our peace They are killing us Thats whats happening The town has no electricity for 13 days, no heating, water And the world doesnt know whats happening here
This is horror Heres our good morning... "
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-13-22/index.html
"Where Russians have been making hard-fought gains"
Although Russia has not captured major cities in recent days, its invasion is far from stalled. Russian forces continue to make gains, pushing into smaller cities and encircling larger ones. Troops have been nearing Kyiv, the capital, and also closing in on key cities in the South and the Northeast.
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But even Russias slow progress encircling major cities has put enormous pressure on Ukrainian civilians, some of whom lack electricity and running water. And Ukraines military remains on the defensive as Russia consolidates its positions outside major cities and threatens to isolate large numbers of Ukrainian troops or force them to retreat.
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Outside Kyiv, Russian forces gained control of the town of Bucha several days ago and moved southwest in an attempt to encircle the capital. They were also approaching Kyiv from the east, with heavy fighting involving a line of Russian tanks reported in the suburb of Brovary, according to videos posted online on Thursday.
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Russian forces continue to have the upper hand in the south. Their offensive on Mykolaiv continued as they worked to encircle the city from the east, with troops conducting offensives radiating out.
Some troops have pushed up as far as Oleksandrivka, not far from the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant, the countrys second largest. Others have made their way to the north and northeast of Mykolaiv toward Kryvyi Rih, though no sustained offensive has been reported.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
Click on link for the labelled map.
Russian tanks advance towards Kyiv from east
Issued on: 09/03/2022 - 22:46
Over the last five days, the Russians have advanced more than 80 kilometres (62 miles) on the northeastern front and are getting close to the Ukrainian capital.
The Ukrainian officer in camouflage points towards the north, where the motorway stretches empty to the horizon between snow-covered fields. "The Russian tanks are just over there, two kilometres away," he said, ordering a civilian vehicle to turn round and go back, due to the danger from Russian forces. "Drive in a zig-zag to avoid their shots," he advises the driver.
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The Russian tanks are stationed just a few kilometres away from Kyiv's city limits. Last Saturday, the Russians were about 80 kilometres further up this road, on a level with the city of Chernihiv.
This advance along the motorway from the north brings Russian tanks just to the east of Kyiv, heightening fears that they could soon encircle the capital. Russian tanks are also just a few kilometres from the city to its northwest.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220309-russian-tanks-advance-towards-kyiv-from-east
Senior US Defense Official: Putin "still has 95 percent of the combat power that he started with"
Putin has nearly 100 percent of the combat power that he amassed for this invasion inside of Ukraine and Putin still has 95 percent of the combat power that he started with, the official added.
The combat power available to him if you count his estimated losses just in terms of aircraft and vehicles that are either inoperable or not moving or not available to him, he still has a lot of combat power available, the official said.
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Very little of the nation of Ukraine is not covered by some sort of Russian surface-to-air missile capability, and they are also conducting offensive air strikes through missiles launched by aircraft as well as by mobile launchers, the official said. While Russians have more control of the airspace in some parts of the country, up in the north more than anywhere else, they dont have control over the entire country, and the space overall remains contested, the official said.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-08-22/index.html
The reason President Zelensky sounds desperate in his pleas for more assistance is because things simply are that desperate.
Please remember that the heroic Ukrainian armed forces are still fighting a much stronger and better armed opponent.
"Russian forces are likely completing preparations for an assault to seize Kyiv"
Main effortKyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
Supporting effort 1Kharkiv;
Supporting effort 1aLuhansk Oblast;
Supporting effort 2Mariupol; and
Supporting effort 3Kherson and advances westward.
Main effortKyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis consist of a main effort aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, east.
Main effortKyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis consist of a main effort aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, east.
Russian forces are likely completing preparations for an assault to seize Kyiv from the east and west within the next 24-96 hours. The Russians are setting conditions for the attack by concentrating supplies and reinforcements, attempting to advance and stabilize their lines, and attacking the city with air, artillery, and missile fire likely intended both to demoralize and to damage Kyivs defenders. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 6 that the Russians have started accumulating the resources they would need to storm the capital.[1] The General Staff noted that Ukrainian forces retain a coherent defense of the city at this time.[2]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7
The heroic Ukrainian armed forces are like a rubber band that is getting stretched to its breaking point.
The reason President Zelensky sounds so desperate in his pleas for more assistance is because things simply are that desperate.
Baltics, in Russia's Shadow, Demand Tougher Stance From West
Source: NY Times
VILNIUS, Lithuania -- Demanding assurances that the Baltic States will not become Russia's next battleground, Lithuania's president firmly told America's top diplomat on Monday that warnings to deter Moscow from further aggressions are "no longer enough."
Hours later, Latvia's foreign minister dismally predicted that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would shatter any belief that the region could ever let down its guard against President Vladimir V. Putin. "We have no illusions about Putin's Russia anymore," Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said. "I don't see any good reason to assume Russia might change its policy."
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is likely to get a similar earful on Tuesday in Estonia as he tries to convince Baltic leaders, who are also part of NATO, that the United States is doing all it can to stop Russia's assault on Ukraine from spreading across Europe -- while remaining careful not to set off a wider war.
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But Baltic leaders appear unsatisfied with the level of military support the United States is providing to help deter Russian advances, either to Ukraine directly or to its allies in Europe. Mr. Rinkevics also said international sanctions against Mr. Putin's allies could be toughened, and he called on European states to stop the oil and gas imports from Russia that have become Moscow's economic lifeline.
Russia provides 10 percent of the world's oil and more than a third of the European Union's natural gas. Western sanctions are largely engineered to allow companies in Europe to continue to buy Russian energy, and the White House has resisted more aggressive penalties for fear that they would drive up the price of gasoline and other energy costs for Americans.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/world/europe/baltics-russia-ukraine-war-blinken.html
In light of events in Ukraine, the Baltic states apparently no longer feel simply being in NATO is a strong enough deterrent against Russian aggression.
Stocks Plunge, Materials Surge in Latest Turmoil: Markets Wrap
Source: Bloomberg
The turmoil on global financial markets intensified Monday as U.S. stocks plunged the most in 17 months and commodity prices relentlessly powering higher as the fallout from war in Ukraine threatened to the global economy.
The S&P 500 sank almost 3% for its worst day since October 2020, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 3.7%. Nickel surged 90% to a record on worry over potential shortages, oil settled at the highest in a decade and wheat approached records after a 7% jump. Earlier, the Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany's DAX index closed in bear markets. The spread between two-year and 10-year Treasuries briefly dropped below 20 basis points, a level not seen since March 2020 and a bearish sign for the economy.
Russia's war on Ukraine and the sanctions from U.S. and European allies on Russian assets have sent a jolt through financial markets that were already unsteady after two years of the pandemic and the threat of central banks pulling back on stimulus. Investors have grown leery of owning riskier assets as surging commodity prices exacerbate inflationary pressures that could force policy makers to tamp down growth.
"The longer oil prices and inflation remain elevated -- and thereby threaten an early demise of this economic expansion and bull market -- the more investors will trim their exposure to equities," wrote Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. "Investor uncertainty should elevate the angst."
Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-06/stocks-face-oil-risks-amid-talk-of-russia-embargo-markets-wrap
Not good news would be an understatement.
I'm old and live off a modest amount of savings and investments in the market and this is starting to really frighten me.
It is apparent that a protracted war in Ukraine will lead to tens of thousands of civilian deaths in Ukraine and severe economic consequences for Europe and the US. Half measures to end this conflict are simply not good enough.
Pakistani premier hits out at Western envoys' joint letter on Russia
Source: Reuters
ISLAMABAD, March 6 (Reuters) - Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan hit out on Sunday at Islamabad-based Western envoys who last week urged Pakistan to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine, asking them if they thought Pakistan was their "slave".
The heads of 22 diplomatic missions, including those of European Union member states, released a joint letter on March 1 urging Pakistan to support a resolution in the United Nations General Assembly condemning Russia's aggression against Ukraine.
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"What do you think of us? Are we your slaves ... that whatever you say, we will do?" Khan said while addressing a political rally.
In the event, Pakistan, a traditional ally of the West, abstained from voting as the U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly reprimanded Russia for invading Ukraine.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistani-premier-hits-out-western-envoys-joint-letter-russia-2022-03-06/
It's helpful to know who your real allies are.
The South Asian country of Pakistan is home to over 212 million people and is the fifth-most populous country in the world.
Pakistan is believed to have a stockpile of approximately 160 warheads, making it the 6th largest nuclear arsenal. Pakistan is actively developing nuclear weapons, and experts project that it may have the 5th largest arsenal by 2025 with 220-250 warheads.
Pakistan has the 17th largest economy in the world based on GDP PPP.
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