G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Data journalist for @TheEconomist. I write mostly about polls, elections & political science. Past @pewmethods @UTAustin. Newsletter: http://thecrosstab.substack.com

October 13, 2019

CBS NEWS: Warren leads in Early States Delegate Projection

Early-state Democratic voters say President Trump's allegations against Joe Biden have not affected their views of Biden and largely think they aren't true. Even so, it's Elizabeth Warren who continues to draw support from Democrats. She has extended the aggregate lead she had in this poll last month across the 18 early primary and caucus states.

As for individual states, she has increased her lead over the pack in New Hampshire and pulled even with Biden in Iowa. And Warren leads in our delegate model over Biden, too, demonstrating that she's competitive in many regions.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-democratic-polls-elizabeth-warren-extends-lead-across-early-states-new-hampshire-draws-even-with-biden-in-iowa/

October 12, 2019

Warren has taken the "lead" in The Economist's average of 2020 Democratic primary polls

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1182824571680051200

The Economist aggregate poll tracker has a more sophisticated presentation and offers a lot more information about the candidates with different demographic groups.

It takes into account each poll's margin of error, it's sampling size and how recent it was -- the chart display shows each candidates margin of error range along with their weighted average as it changes over time.

For example, Warren 25 (22-28) shows the average and the upper and lower margin of error confidence levels in the parentheses.

For a more detailed description of this great tool, see this article posted on DailyKos. it's from August, so it's talking about old polling results from back then, but it details many of the cool features available:

No, the latest poll is not blockbuster news. The Economist has the best aggregate.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/27/1881793/-No-the-latest-poll-is-not-blockbuster-news-The-Economist-has-the-best-aggregate-1-2-3-B-W-S

Check out The Economist's aggregate tracker for yourself at:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

October 10, 2019

Biden is creating a generational divide among black voters

While polls suggest Joe Biden leads among black voters, please read the fine print. Although Barack Obama's vice president touts his African-American support by saying "I think they know me," in reality that support is conditional, more specifically generational, and therefore flimsy and tenuous.
Biden enjoys widespread support among older black adults, leaving some younger black voters to try to convince their parents and grandparents to change their ways and shift their vote for the 2020 election.

Black millennials and Gen Z-ers are proactively attempting to sway their elder family members away from Biden and towards progressive candidates, as the New York Times reported in September. While it's unclear if the attempt to specifically sway older black voters is working, according to an October Quinnipiac poll, Biden's support among black registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters has dropped 17 points since their July poll.
Biden has downplayed this black generational gap, suggesting the votes of older and moderate blacks are all he may need to get him over the top. However, it should come as no surprise that Biden has a young black people problem.

While his age, 76, has been mentioned as an issue, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are also in his age group -- and yet their age, until Sanders' recent heart attack, has not emerged as a factor.
But what has proven a roadblock for Biden's support among young people of color is the shelf life of his mindset, his decades-old sentiments on race, society and politics that seem to lock him into the 1960s and 1970s. Add to that Biden's perceived persona of white moderation that tells black people we should move in baby steps rather than seek aggressive and immediate change.

During the third Democratic debate, when asked about slavery and reparations, Biden responded with references to black parents unable to raise their children, and by telling them to "make sure you have the record player on at night." At that moment, Biden sounded out of touch -- more like a white man blaming black people for their
oppression.

David A. Love is a writer, commentator, and journalism and media studies professor based in Philadelphia. He contributes to a variety of outlets, including Atlanta Black Star, ecoWURD and Al Jazeera. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidALove. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his. View more opinion articles on CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/10/opinions/biden-generational-divide-black-voters-love/index.html

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