September 27, 2020

Trump's Biggest Fear

It's obvious what it is. It's losing in a landslide with a clear winner being declared on or shortly after Election Day.

He hasn't stopped campaigning in four years. He got himself impeached on account of it. He may not be able to ward off the inevitable election loss, but it appears to be within his power to muddy the waters of the results.

So this is all one big hedge. If he loses, he just stirs up all this manufactured controversy over absentee voting and the like. He can stay in the MSM limelight and play the role of the people's underdog champion against the corrupt Deep State. Maybe he takes his movement underground, maybe he walks away with one finger in the air, maybe he refuses to leave. He switches from sore winner to sore loser, it all fits his modus operandi.

If he somehow wins, that will be the last we hear of the "rigged election". We'll get four more years of victory laps and high-fives to self.

But a clear victory by Biden that quickly extinguishes the worst ideology this country has seen in recent memory, that he can't abide.

September 20, 2020

This guy is a metaphor for the Trump Presidency

Disregards fact-based warnings clearly presented at current situation - check
Downplays major threat based on experience with loosely-related minor threats - check
Overestimates knowledge level of subject at hand based on hasty research - check
Tweets/vlogs in fallacious attempt to boast or share "wisdom" - check
Kind of a doofus - check
Ends very, very badly - check

September 8, 2020

My latest leisurely pandemic activity: Amateur Astronomy!

So I bought a Orion 10282 STARBLAST 90mm Altazimuth Travel Refractor Telescope a couple weeks ago. I've never owned a telescope before, or really spent any time with one. I'm in the suburbs and there is an unfortunate amount of light pollution, which makes the refractor a better choice than the reflector.

I've gotten a pretty good look at Mars, Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, and even Uranus. The moon too.

I found Messier 22 (a globular cluster). Damn hard to find even knowing right where it was. Really just a ghostly blob, no color at all.

I found the Orion nebula eventually, really difficult as well. Another nearly invisible ghost.

So light pollution is a bummer. It's a travel scope so there are options. It would be nice to be able to see more from my patio, though. I haven't seen the Milky Way in forever. But it's really a lot worse than that. Many of the constellations are being washed out. There are only two stars from Ursa Minor visible with the naked eye. Constellations like Sagittarius are totally gone.

The scope was pretty reasonable and I've been enjoying it despite the inherent limitations.

August 16, 2020

Is America Greater Than It Was Four Years Ago?

This is a spin on the Reagan quote of course, but with a finer point which pokes Trump's campaign slogan in the soft underbelly.

It is the bumper sticker question the Biden campaign should be asking the American people.

Again.

And again.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/transition-to-greatness-is-a-confession-of-failure/612073/

August 11, 2020

America's Lost Year of Education: A Warning!

I worry about the impact a lost year of education would have on today's students.

Without Social Studies, how will students be able to study the national emergencies and wars of the past? How will they be drilled with the lesson that even small sacrifices by each and every American can amount to a tremendous force for good which can pull us through major calamities?

Without Science, how can students learn the true nature of anthropogenic climate change, pandemics, the big bang, evolution, and other subjects which cannot easily be assessed in daily life? Any vacuum left by a lack of fundamentals and healthy skepticism will be quickly filled by the fog of supernatural beliefs and prepackaged misconceptions.

Without Mathematics, how will students acquire the engineering skills necessary to design tomorrow's nuclear plants, fusion plants, solar cells, and batteries in order to phase out fossil fuels? Without these skills, we can expect a diminished role on the world stage as other countries rise to the occasion.

The workforce and electorate of today have mostly enjoyed the fruits of a robust education system featuring in-person classroom training. If we take that away, we...uh...run the risk of...uh...

Oh fuck it.

August 2, 2020

My drunk driving conservative buddy informs me of three things

First, he has had more sobriety tests than ANYBODY else. He has had numerous roadside field sobriety tests. He's had blood tests at the county jail. He has a beautiful vehicle breathalyzer interlock system which he is very proud of and shows off to all his dates. All these tests (more than ANYBODY else) demonstrate how committed he is to sobriety and, naturally, how extremely low of a risk he is of having another infraction.

Second, this high level of testing (more than ANYBODY else) does result in positive results from time to time. However, if there wasn't so much testing being done, there wouldn't be NEARLY as many. This is simple math.

Third, one of his arrests came after drinking Tsingtao beer all night. Made in CHINA. He informs me that these are clearly "high-gravity" beers which are mislabeled as 4.8% ABV. Mislabeled in CHINA. So he doesn't drink CHINA beer anymore, even when EVERYBODY ELSE was still drinking it and saying it was fine. This demonstrates his remarkable foresight.

Do these analogies ever resonate with conservatives? It doesn't seem like it. But we can laugh.

August 1, 2020

New Rule: The Quarantine 15 Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

Maher flirts with fat-shaming which isn't my style, but I think he's onto an important message here.

Maher quotes a study from Public Health England that people with a BMI of 35 to 40 increase their risk of death from CV-19 by 40%, and it goes up dramatically from there. If accurate, he makes a fair point that the media should touch on this more. Face coverings help protect others as well, but only provide about 5% protection for the wearer as I understand it. That's nowhere near as significant as this.

I've never reached a BMI of 35 but was about 15 lbs over the top of my normal BMI range a month ago. After a month of hellish strenuous exercising I'm only about 5 lbs over now. So I started working on this before the Maher story. Perhaps I have confirmation bias?

August 1, 2020

Question for Dr. Fauci

Can Hurricane Isaias pick up the virus from the stricken state of Florida and precipitate it down on the Carolinas?

The MSM squanders Fauci's time with mostly moronic and superfluous viewer questions all the time, so why not.

July 30, 2020

2020 Republican National Convention Caravan

The 2020 Republican National Convention Caravan was originally going to camp at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. Charlotte was the only city in the country showing much interest in hosting the caravan. This was no surprise considering the caravan's odd consortium of pseudo-scientists, cultists, snake-oil salesmen, and fear-mongers led by the carnival-barking leader himself Donald Trump.

In May, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper grew skittish about the size of the caravan and its oddly influential leader and wanted to see it reduced in size. Eventually, Cooper turned the caravan away entirely in June due to fears from North Carolina residents.

The caravan travelled to Atlanta, Dallas, Jacksonville, Nashville, New Orleans, Orlando, Phoenix, and Savannah, but were turned away at every city's gates.

The caravan finally headed south to Jacksonville, Florida after a seemingly positive discussion with the Governor. However, by July Floridians had adopted a similar skeptical mindset as the Charlotteans regarding the wandering caravan. Trying to save face, caravan leader Trump claimed that the caravan would be disbanded based strictly on his own decision.

July 13, 2020

Magical thinking about school openings in US

As I understand it, the justification that schools can be opened safely this fall is based on the following two assertions:

1) The risk to children getting severely ill from CV-19 is low
2) There is no evidence children can cause significant spread of CV-19

I accept assertion 1 as the science and data clearly back this up. However, assertion 2 appears to be based on a logical fallacy. It has not been demonstrated that unaffected children can be largely immune to CV-19 as opposed to being merely asymptomatic. While the inverse has not be demonstrated either, I believe the default position should be that children can cause significant spread. This belief is compatible with having an abundance of caution related to this health crisis.

If you accept my definition of this default position, you have no choice to reject assertion 2 as it represents a shifting of the burden of proof. If you accept that assertion 2 is not sound, you must also reject the justification that schools can be opened safely.

I don't know of any children who live alone and can socially distance. Schools are at risk of creating a "mixer" environment where children spread it to each other and then to their parents and grandparents, fueling the pandemic further.