Richard Charnin

About Richard Charnin

It seems like only yesterday, but I graduated from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics. My first job was a numerical control engineer/programmer for Grumman Aerospace Corporation, a major defense/aerospace manufacturer that built the lunar module. I obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics (Adelphi University, 1969) and an MS in Operations Research (Polytechnic Institute of NY, 1973). In 1976, I moved on to Wall Street as manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for White Weld & Co, an old-line investment bank which was acquired by Merrill Lynch in 1978. When personal computers first became available in 1982, I converted many of the mainframe FORTRAN application programs I had written to Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets. As an independent software consultant, I specialized in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. I never imagined that years later I would be posting election analyses on the Internet. But after the 2000 fiasco, I felt motivated to develop a robust forecast model. The unadjusted state exit polls are confirmed by the True Vote Model agree – Gore won by 5-7 million votes) In July 2004 I began posting weekly election projections based on state and national pre-election polls. As far as I know, the “2004 Election Model” was the first of its kind in that it used Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls. Immediately following the election, I began posting exit poll analyses that sparked heated debates and attracted hundreds of viewers. I’ve been going virtually non-stop ever since. My focus continues to be on developing math models to calculate the True Vote – as opposed to the recorded vote. The corporate media and politicians avoid the subject of election fraud like the plague. The unadjusted state exit polls are confirmed by the True Vote Model; Election Fraud is systemic. The Democratic True Vote has been consistently 3-5% higher than the official recorded vote. Since 1988, they have won the unadjusted exit polls by 51-41% compared to the recorded 48-46% margin. Because of my emphasis on numerical analysis, I will usually provide a text summary with a link to the original HTML post. A complete set of links to my posts is available at RichardCharnin.com.