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robbob

(3,522 posts)
14. Absolutely wrong!
Wed Dec 20, 2017, 05:48 PM
Dec 2017

Sure, I can flip a coin 10 time and get it to come up tails 9 times, that doesn’t change the fact that mathematically speaking, head vs tails is a 50/50 probability! Try playing the game with 10 doors; over time you will be wrong to stick with your original pick 90% of the time!

Put another way; when presented with 3 doors, you have a 33% chance of getting the correct door. So there is a 66% chance the correct door is one of the other 2. Monty shows you the “other door” that doesn’t have the car, but that doesn’t change the odds: there is still a 33% chance your first pick was right, and a 66% chance the car is behind the other door.

This mathematical fact does not take into account human intuition...

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Some people need a math l...»Reply #14