Poll: Biden holds double-digit lead over field of 2020 Dem presidential contenders

[Awsi Dooger]

21. I don't think Biden would defeat Trump

An incumbent whose party has been in power only one term holds enormous advantages and benefit of a doubt. We can't rely on short term flimsy indications like 35ish approval ratings three years removed while ignoring the foundational aspects.

I'll continue to believe we are in excellent shape in 2018 but likely to lose in 2020. That is a big picture focus without caring about specifics. That's the way I look at things. The out party owns huge edge in the opening midterm and then the tide shifts back toward that incumbent president. Throughout 2016 I dreaded a Republican victory because it was almost certainly a 2-for-1 if it happened. That second win is much easier than the first.

I realize Trump looks like he has to be an exception. I hope he is the exception. But every handicapping instinct tells me his approval rating will normalize and since we lack an outstanding candidate everything will drift back to the foundational beginning, which is yet another incumbent re-elected.

If someone emerges as an incredibly popular charismatic challenger, then I'm open to changing my mind. I don't like the looks of our roster right now.

Beyond anything we need to be prioritizing registration drives. The gain would be extraordinary right now. It might not matter in 2020 but down the road it tips one race after another. Get those youngsters registered as Democrats and thinking like Democrats. They are available now. If we stupidly wait until 2020 to make it a priority then the terrain is more balanced and advantage is long forfeited.