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Eliot Rosewater

(34,313 posts)
12. They have a clear bias, it is well known
Mon Feb 5, 2018, 02:36 PM
Feb 2018

You dont know that?



In 2010, Nate Silver of The New York Times’ blog FiveThirtyEight wrote the article "Is Rasmussen Reports biased?", in which he mostly defended Rasmussen from allegations of bias.[79] However, later in the year, Rasmussen's polling results diverged notably from other mainstream pollsters, which Silver labeled a "house effect."[80] He went on to explore other factors which may have explained the effect such as the use of a likely voter model,[81] and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering.[82]

After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.[71] Conservative polling analyst Neil Stevens wrote, "after the primaries [Silver] said Rasmussen was in his crosshairs for ducking out on a number of races by not polling primaries."[83] FiveThirtyEight currently rates Rasmussen Reports with a C+ grade and notes a simple average error of 5.3 percent across 657 polls analyzed.[84]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports


A 2017 article by Chris Cillizza for CNN raised doubts about Rasmussen's accuracy, drawing attention specifically to potential sampling biases such as the exclusion of calls to cell-phones (which, Cillizza argued, tended to exclude younger voters), and also more generally to a lack of methodological disclosure. Cillizza did, however, note in the same piece that Rasmussen was one of the more accurate polling organizations during the 2016 United States presidential election.[95]

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Meh, ignore them and let them drop... Wounded Bear Feb 2018 #1
We should not pay attention to ANY polls! redstatebluegirl Feb 2018 #2
I like that even better. Thanks. Eliot Rosewater Feb 2018 #3
Poison polls is a classic trolling technique, tho. Hortensis Feb 2018 #20
Excellent post ismnotwasm Feb 2018 #21
Kellyanne Conway owns some polling company. Enough said. BSdetect Feb 2018 #4
Better idea: Find out about the poll's source and whether it's an outlier. highplainsdem Feb 2018 #5
Agian the truth is spoken. Wellstone ruled Feb 2018 #6
AAAHHH - very good ER -finally someone steps up - asiliveandbreathe Feb 2018 #7
I don't need a damn poll to tell me ... SWBTATTReg Feb 2018 #8
Rasmussen was right on the money in 2016, Hillary by 2% 4139 Feb 2018 #9
They predicted Hillary would win by 3 million votes? Eliot Rosewater Feb 2018 #10
Hillary won by 2.1%, Rasmussen was off by 0.1% 4139 Feb 2018 #11
They have a clear bias, it is well known Eliot Rosewater Feb 2018 #12
They always adjust their numbers right before election Loki Liesmith Feb 2018 #14
Thanks for that ! ! ! Eliot Rosewater Feb 2018 #15
What exactly are you "just sayin"? lapucelle Feb 2018 #22
Im not really into calls to denounce things Loki Liesmith Feb 2018 #13
Where do you stand on Eliot Rosewater Feb 2018 #16
Will denounce it Loki Liesmith Feb 2018 #17
twitter is god. everything on twitter is 100% true. worship twitter nt msongs Feb 2018 #18
Especially if said tweets attack Hillary or similar other democrats. Eliot Rosewater Feb 2018 #19
Poll: 100% of Americans think Trump is Greatestest President Ever struggle4progress Feb 2018 #23
So exactly who is "reliable"? former9thward Feb 2018 #24
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Please DENOUNCE any polls...»Reply #12