General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Feb 20: Bernie Sanders says his 2016 team saw effects of Russian anti-Clinton campaign [View all]Quixote1818
(31,156 posts)that line of attack. EVERYONE knew Russia was involved as they probably almost always are messing around in our elections. 538 suggests Russia probably didn't impact the election much. Not nearly as much as the FBI suggesting they were re-opening her email investigation a week before the election.
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1. Russian interference is hard to measure because it wasnt a discrete event.
You know what probably did cost Clinton the election? The letter that former FBI Director James Comey sent to Congress on Oct. 28, 2016, and the subsequent media firestorm over it. The impact is relatively easy to measure because it was the biggest news event in the final two weeks of the campaign, and we can compare polls conducted just before the Comey letter to the ones conducted just after it.1
Russian interference isnt like that. By contrast, the indictment (and previous reporting on the subject) suggests that the interference campaign had been underway for years (since at least 2014) and gradually evolved from a more general-purpose trolling operation into something that sought to undermine Clinton while promoting Trump (and to a lesser degree, Bernie Sanders). To the extent it mattered, it would have blended into the background and had a cumulative effect over the entirety of the campaign.
Snip: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-did-russian-interference-affect-the-2016-election/