This is setting up for another MASSIVE FAILURE for Romney ... [View all]

[Blackhatjack]

Romney can't decide if he is in or out of Iowa. He has a huge war chest full of campaign $$ to spend, waits until after the straw polls are over, and then decides to go all in. His SuperPac spends relentlessly on attack ads directed at Gingrich. And yet he never crosses 25% in any poll.

Now with 2 days to go, he has real competition in the latest polls from both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, both within a couple of percentage points --and a polling margin of error of 4% or more.

There is not a doubt that New Hampshire will go with Romney.

BUT if Romney loses Iowa, wins in N.H., and heads to South CArolina --he is going to LOSE there. It is looking like he can spend all the money he has and it won't cut it with the social conservatives of S.C.

At that point you would have either 3 different winners in the first 3 states, or one of the candidates not named Romney will have two(2) wins and Romney will have one win in N.H. and 2 losses.

At that point there will be some serious intra party bloodletting going on ... and the problems that Romney has minimized so far will be magnified by the rightwingers, fundamentalists, and tea partiers --all to the horror of independents and Karl Rove and company who will smell inevitable disaster in the general election.

A lot depends on the turnout in Iowa, but keep in mind these are caucuses and not traditional style elections. Paul's ground base is formidable, and the Christian fundamentalists seem to be turning to Rick Santorum in a big way (and rejecting Michele Bachmann).

IT is hard to believe a candidate could have more than 4-7 times the campaign $$ to spend against his closest opponents and still lose .... but that is what the Romney campaign is facing if they fail to pull out the win in Iowa.

At that point there is going to be a civil war going on inside the Republican Party the likes of which we have never seen. Who ends up with the official Party nomination will most likely be someone who is not named Romney.