A lot of people are in denial about the Mueller investigation.

[Awsi Dooger]

57. Trump is much more likely to be re-elected than impeached or forced out

I agree with you that he is >50% likelihood to be re-elected.

Big picture factors and focus dominate. Incumbents whose party have been in power only one term receive surreal benefit of a doubt when they seek re-election. There is no reason to believe that won't apply again in 2020. We'll have to get very lucky to defeat him. Trump will have to sustain implosion to mid 2017 levels, with a 40ish approval rating or below. But that is certainly an underdog. The longer he is in office the more his style and personality will be accepted as the norm. Shock and disgust factor will diminish. We are in exponentially better shape toward 2018 than 2020.

The denial is indeed on sites like this. I agree with the ideology but there's no chance I am going to succumb to the daily obsession with details. That type of thinking leads to nothing but opinions and decisions. Every day you are absorbing something new and linking it to something else. And that's the worst place you can be when attempting to project the future. Rachel Maddow utilizes that method exclusively. She wouldn't begin to understand any other approach. That's why I have very little respect for her, other than as a story teller.

In my 25 years in the Las Vegas sportsbook scene the people who had absolutely no chance were the ones who watched every game and formed dozens of opinions, subject to fluctuation every minute. Everything was fluid. The people who fared well, on the other hand, relied on a handful of foundational variables and merely applied them where proper. The number of variables and decisions was sliced by 90% if not more.

I like H20 Man's posts but again he is the type who believes in details. Yesterday he wrote a long thread about how he follows the news every day. That approach may allow someone to be very well informed across the board but in terms of how Mueller will fare or how Trump will be impacted it unfortunately is the worst possible reliance.