The bearish factors are the size of the 2016/17 Brazilian crop, how much is still unsold by American and Brazilian farmers, and the size of the 2017/18 American soybean crop.
Last year, Brazil’s soybean crop hit a record high. Local prices collapsed. And farmers around the globe were highly concerned about news that Brazil would set another record in 2017/18.
Perhaps that is why one of my favorite titles about Brazil’s crop was from Reuters.
“Brazil farmers ‘hope for a miracle,’ hoard soybeans.”
https://farmlead.com/blog/insights/most-bullish-thing-about-soybeans-isnt-china/
That is a 2009 article you are citing.
In January, China accounted for 16.9% of US imports. Canada and Mexico are next with 14.9 and 14.5% respectively. Fourth is Japan at 5.2 and then Germany at 4.3%.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/toppartners.html
But what we import from each country differs a lot, so targeting China actually targets a specific thing -- especially computing and electrical equipment that is made in China, in many cases by Chinese factories owned by American companies.
Here's what the United States imports from these five countries and why they're the best at producing these goods for the U.S. market.
China: China primarily exports electrical equipment. This would include computers and optical and medical equipment. It's also a big exporter of low-cost apparel, fabric, and textiles. A lot of China's exports are manufactured products made for U.S. companies. These companies pay to ship raw materials to China. There the low-cost factory workers process the materials into the final product.
Canada: Almost 75 percent of Canada's exports go to the United States, thanks to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Since 1994, trade between the NAFTA partners has tripled. Canada has abundant supplies of oil, gas, and uranium.
Mexico: The other member of NAFTA sends even more of its exports to the United States (78 percent). Mexico's No. 1 export is manufactured products, for many of the same reasons. If it weren't for the drug cartels, Mexico could become the next China.
Japan: Japan's biggest export to the United States is fuel-efficient and reliable automobiles, like Toyotas and Hondas. It also supplies machinery, medical instruments, and aircraft. Japan supplies a lot of parts. Japan's earthquake and nuclear disaster created a global economic slowdown due to a reduced export of parts. To make its products more competitive in the U.S. market, Japan's central bank keeps the value of its currency, the yen, low. That's contributed to the yen carry trade and made Japan one of the largest holders of U.S. debt.
Germany: Germany's biggest export to the United States is high-end automobiles, like BMW, Porsche, and Mercedes-Benz. It also exports pharmaceuticals, machinery, and equipment.
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-imports-by-year-and-by-country-3306259
We could import more computers and electronics from Japan and South Korea. In many cases these would actually be made in China and then moved through Japan and South Korea.
It's interesting to contemplate that Apple may be severely hurt by tariff son iPhones from its suppliers in China, while Samsung and LG can shift production for different countries among its Chinese and South Korean factories in order to avoid the US tariff. Others like Motorola division of Lenovo might shift final assembly to Malaysia or Indonesia, i.e. put it in the box with US graphics on it.
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