General Discussion

NewJeffCT

(56,848 posts)

87. I am NOT a Bernie supporter, but I do think he can win the nomination in 2020

Wed Apr 11, 2018, 09:22 AM

Apr 2018

That said, I did not support Clinton in 2016, either. Nor did I support Obama or Clinton in 2008. I did not donate any money until we had a Democratic nominee.

The reason that Bernie can win the nomination in 2020 is that he has his base of support among the Democrats and the left. In 2016, Clinton had much of the rest of the Democratic Party, including minorities. After O'Malley had little impact on the race, it was just Clinton or Sanders.

Right now, Warren says she will not run, so there is nobody to divide up the votes from that "Democratic wing" of the Democratic Party. In 2004, there was Howard Dean (for his vocal anti-war position), John Edwards, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich dividing up the left wing votes. When Dean lost early, he was basically out of the race and

In 2020, if Biden does not run, there could be several candidates dividing up the votes that Clinton received in 2016 - Harris, Booker, Castro, Cuomo, Gillebrand, Murphy, Kennedy, and probably a few more.

So, barring Warren entering the race and splitting his vote, Bernie could get his base of 40-45% of the vote in primaries, get his caucus victories and the other 6, 7 or 8 candidates split the remaining 55-60% in primaries.

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Just a couple reasons Bernie can win the nomination IF he even runs [View all] Omaha Steve Apr 2018 OP

Thanks no thanks waddirum Apr 2018 #1

agree. KatyMan Apr 2018 #8

Sanders and Nader 2020? Hortensis Apr 2018 #47

I sort of doubt Sanders supported Bill Clinton in 2000, PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2018 #52

:) whoops. 1996, thanks. Hortensis Apr 2018 #55

I think I'm going to be sick. BannonsLiver Apr 2018 #2

You and me both. arthritisR_US Apr 2018 #25

He'll need to win more than Iowans, 1.5 million union members and Trump voters EffieBlack Apr 2018 #3

Unfortunately for him I think he's turned off more voters in the last year than he's attracted.... George II Apr 2018 #144

no thanks obamanut2012 Apr 2018 #4

You are using 2016 statistics and making some assumptions. Blue_true Apr 2018 #5

Yes, there's been a lot of media Hortensis Apr 2018 #48

Bernie will also get a more indepth look from the press and political talking heads. Blue_true Apr 2018 #69

Think you're spot on about new press scrutiny. Hortensis Apr 2018 #79

Exactly all that! bettyellen Apr 2018 #202

As much as I get that he is a newcomer on the national stage. NCTraveler Apr 2018 #6

Very well said. geardaddy Apr 2018 #22

Wish you wouldn't post obviously inflamatory comments that are clearly against tos. JCanete Apr 2018 #116

lol. NCTraveler Apr 2018 #121

what are you talking about? I'm trying to make a point about what is supposed to be accdeptable JCanete Apr 2018 #122

"what is supposed to be accdeptable" NCTraveler Apr 2018 #123

yeah, but you know I wasn't talking about the lecture. Take it easy. nt JCanete Apr 2018 #125

Lets revisit your replies to my couple of day old post. NCTraveler Apr 2018 #126

I plan to only vote for Democrats. So no. nt hack89 Apr 2018 #7

I don't think Bernie could win the nomination... kentuck Apr 2018 #9

And we've seen that movie already. Didn't like the ending. brush Apr 2018 #32

That's pretty much what I expect to happen in 2020... comradebillyboy Apr 2018 #110

Minority support is necessary. He won't get it. nt LexVegas Apr 2018 #10

He already lost it once. MineralMan Apr 2018 #11

Hillary lost in 08 and came back to win in 16 Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #23

I didnt vote during the primary... Mellomugwump Apr 2018 #41

08 was way closer...and the primary was way less divisive...she worked her heart out for Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #53

The way he acted at the Convention was really a tell. LisaM Apr 2018 #59

And the those folks were from the campaign too...disgraceful. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #63

Post removed Post removed Apr 2018 #105

She was great and put Pres. Obama's name in for' unanimous'. You know Sen. Sanders did not do Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #107

Her 2008 convention speech was so strong and unifying that even Keith Olbermann liked it. LisaM Apr 2018 #114

He didn't like Hillary or he liked Pres. Obama more...I miss Keith. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #164

I was talking about the 2016 convention... k8conant Apr 2018 #137

Sorry...yep it was a shit show in 16. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #163

I know. LisaM Apr 2018 #203

More grace and class than most in that position. (nt) ehrnst Apr 2018 #188

She showed incredible grace and kindness. That is leadership and class. ehrnst Apr 2018 #187

,,, lapucelle Apr 2018 #64

;) sheshe2 Apr 2018 #66

+1000 nt brer cat Apr 2018 #84

Bernie does not support the Democratic party. mia Apr 2018 #12

If he gets the nomination, Democrats will support him n/t leftstreet Apr 2018 #15

If he gets the nomination, Democrats will be viewed as so weak that they can't even find a mia Apr 2018 #18

Historically he turns down the nomination and runs as an Independent. NCTraveler Apr 2018 #20

I think i agree with you. trueblue2007 Apr 2018 #74

A few weeks ago Elizabeth Warren was a speaker at a very important fundraiser/dinner.... George II Apr 2018 #85

I liked him going into 2016. Adrahil Apr 2018 #13

I don't think he can win. I think he is too old. He is not a Dem. So no, I don't think Democratic OregonBlue Apr 2018 #14

My generation should sit down and let younger wasupaloopa Apr 2018 #16

He said Obama should be Primaried JI7 Apr 2018 #17

Agree...completely. Time to put 16 behind us it was an awful election and an awful year. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #54

Neither he nor Hillary should run in 20 Cairycat Apr 2018 #19

You write, "The hatred for Bernie runs very deep with some here." Jim Lane Apr 2018 #24

"DU" is... George II Apr 2018 #40

While we're restating the obvious... Jim Lane Apr 2018 #44

Did you overlook questions 11 and 18? George II Apr 2018 #45

Sigh. Another reading comprehension fail. Jim Lane Apr 2018 #46

Well done, sir. Wish I could rec it. n/t ms liberty Apr 2018 #61

I suggest Twitter, and Facebook...and I can tell you even my kids won't vote for him again...you can Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #57

So we have a difference in methodology. Jim Lane Apr 2018 #73

Sen Sanders has lost support and there have been polls that showed Joe Biden as more popular. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #86

I see the exact opposite of your wishful thinking. R B Garr Apr 2018 #62

I think most Democrats are even less likely than DUers... dawg day Apr 2018 #104

You repeat the myth of Bernie's unpopularity outside white male voters. Jim Lane Apr 2018 #117

55%/50% isn't very good when you're talking about the base. dawg day Apr 2018 #204

Bernie's favorability rating is 76% among Democrats. Isn't that the base? Jim Lane Apr 2018 #211

"Favorability" is very different than "If the election were held today, I would vote for him." nt EffieBlack Apr 2018 #219

That is, perhaps, why I wrote the second paragraph of #117. (n/t) Jim Lane Apr 2018 #223

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2018 #72

There is one reason why Bernie will never get the nomination grantcart Apr 2018 #21

Quite Me. Apr 2018 #26

Indeed. (nt) ehrnst Apr 2018 #39

Pass. bearsfootball516 Apr 2018 #27

So he's going to rejoin the Party again? Give us a break. PubliusEnigma Apr 2018 #28

Post removed Post removed Apr 2018 #29

I will be consistent. I think it's a distraction to talk about Bernie as a candidate now, pro or con Tom Rinaldo Apr 2018 #30

It might help if he switched his party designation from I to D a little earlier next time. stopbush Apr 2018 #31

He said last time he would remain a Democrat. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #58

He lied. stopbush Apr 2018 #67

I can't argue with that. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #68

No, he's not the one who lied. (n/t) Jim Lane Apr 2018 #224

Just one reason why he can't win the nomination: Tax Returns lunamagica Apr 2018 #33

Bingo. Especially for a candidate running on ehrnst Apr 2018 #38

Economic issues and integrity. Blue_true Apr 2018 #70

Bernie doesn't like the Democratic party, so no reason to think he'll be our nominee. KitSileya Apr 2018 #34

Yes, but he's not succeeding in driving out the true blue core of the Democratic Party. Indeed.... George II Apr 2018 #36

I know that is anecdotal, TexasTowelie Apr 2018 #42

Bernie isn't the face and leader of the future BoneyardDem Apr 2018 #115

Not wanting to refight the primaries but since you brought it up.... George II Apr 2018 #35

Any backup for those claims? (nt) ehrnst Apr 2018 #37

Which premises do you doubt? They are all self-evident to me. earthshine Apr 2018 #49

"Self-evident." ehrnst Apr 2018 #78

So, which do you deny??? All premises are OBVIOUSLY factual and true. earthshine Apr 2018 #88

Did I deny any? I asked for numbers and stats. For instance: ehrnst Apr 2018 #90

Short memory Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #92

Which of the several citations is that one? ehrnst Apr 2018 #94

Grassroots $ Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #95

My understanding is that the $27 "average" donation wasn't really borne out in the stats ehrnst Apr 2018 #96

1.5 million plus union members Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #100

That would be union leadership endorsements, and not individuals that would vote. ehrnst Apr 2018 #106

Never mind Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #108

Got nothing? ehrnst Apr 2018 #111

1.5 million is actually 1.25 million, but even so that's less than 4% of members of unions.... George II Apr 2018 #140

I cyte the facts of the 2016 campaign. All of this was true then ... and true now. earthshine Apr 2018 #130

My fondness for facts and citations bothers you? ehrnst Apr 2018 #132

You hate Bernie. Nothing will change that. earthshine Apr 2018 #133

I think you are missing where the "hate" is originating. ehrnst Apr 2018 #136

I would like an answer to that last sentence also. Eliot Rosewater Apr 2018 #142

They are based in facts and articles that I have been reading here and elsewhere for years. earthshine Apr 2018 #159

And we have the fallacy of proving a negative.... ehrnst Apr 2018 #162

You're the one who loves facts and polls, yes? earthshine Apr 2018 #175

Wait, wait, count me in I LOVE FACTS ALSO!!! Eliot Rosewater Apr 2018 #178

I know - the whole mocking tone of "you love facts and polls" ehrnst Apr 2018 #185

"I am refusing to do research FOR YOU." ehrnst Apr 2018 #184

Provide any evidence to the contrary of any assertions made. earthshine Apr 2018 #191

Again.... ehrnst Apr 2018 #196

"I have watched the party move to (the) right for decades." LOL. betsuni Apr 2018 #167

Ha!! :-D Nice catch! I see it too! NurseJackie Apr 2018 #173

And??? earthshine Apr 2018 #176

I know it is not true. betsuni Apr 2018 #206

Isnt that a rightwing talking point? Or wait, maybe not theirs, let's look at this Eliot Rosewater Apr 2018 #179

What are "members"? ehrnst Apr 2018 #189

I've heard size doesn't matter. betsuni Apr 2018 #205

Well yes, especially when one is in their 70's. ehrnst Apr 2018 #209

Ehrnst uses facts and citations to prove a point? mcar Apr 2018 #149

Guilty as charged... ehrnst Apr 2018 #197

This is AMAZING! betsuni Apr 2018 #207

You used the word "hate" four times in your post. On what do you base this personal attack? George II Apr 2018 #156

Lighten up, Francis. yardwork Apr 2018 #157

Bernie insists on being "I" Independent not "D" BoneyardDem Apr 2018 #181

Post removed Post removed Apr 2018 #186

Actually, here is what Bernie himself said as to why he ran as a Dem: ehrnst Apr 2018 #190

What's the point? Nothing here is disputed. earthshine Apr 2018 #194

Who are you talking to? ehrnst Apr 2018 #195

The DCCC? They didn't decide whether or not he ran as a Democrat. George II Apr 2018 #198

I still don't understand why you are here pressing an "I" and while you are at it.... BoneyardDem Apr 2018 #200

He "ran strong in Iowa", a caucus state, but he didn't win. George II Apr 2018 #141

He can't win a general election nt Tavarious Jackson Apr 2018 #43

Where are Bernie's tax returns? yardwork Apr 2018 #50

Yes, that is a good question. ehrnst Apr 2018 #91

I want to know why his supporters arent asking this, I really do. Eliot Rosewater Apr 2018 #101

April 14, 2016, sitting with Andrea Mitchell with the East River and Brooklyn Bridge as a backdrop.. George II Apr 2018 #199

I would not consider last time...whole different ball game this year. And Sen. Sanders has made Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #51

It is absolutely amazing to me that Bernies supporters continue insist that the Democratic Party EffieBlack Apr 2018 #118

I think Sen Sanders has die hard fans almost like a rock star...it is an emotional response...not Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #165

Partly agree... Mike Nelson Apr 2018 #56

And then be revealed as Ralph Nader the II. Demsrule86 Apr 2018 #60

Nope. Never. Nt. Amimnoch Apr 2018 #65

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2018 #71

No one should run unless they produce 5 years of FULL returns before the first primary/caucus. pnwmom Apr 2018 #75

Screw the presidency. fleabiscuit Apr 2018 #76

I would prefer Barbara Lee, perhaps. David__77 Apr 2018 #77

The guy is starting to be vetted for the first time in his career. NCTraveler Apr 2018 #80

And, boy is he pissed about it. EffieBlack Apr 2018 #119

I will vote for the person with a D by their name MyNameGoesHere Apr 2018 #81

No. TheSmarterDog Apr 2018 #82

Nope. No way. Tipperary Apr 2018 #83

I am NOT a Bernie supporter, but I do think he can win the nomination in 2020 NewJeffCT Apr 2018 #87

Murphy could attract Bernie supporters. Garrett78 Apr 2018 #161

When would he become a Democrat again? Orsino Apr 2018 #89

Can we stop with the Bernie posts? kstewart33 Apr 2018 #93

If he were to win, would he remain a Democrat?... SidDithers Apr 2018 #97

Fool me once... as the expression goes. NurseJackie Apr 2018 #98

nope JustAnotherGen Apr 2018 #99

People still talking about Bernie lillypaddle Apr 2018 #102

No, I think he's out of the running. The Velveteen Ocelot Apr 2018 #103

I only vote for Democrats. OhZone Apr 2018 #109

Anyone who wants to run should run, and the voters will decide. It's called Democracy. vsrazdem Apr 2018 #112

Everyone has the right to rn - but they dont have the right to use an organizations money and EffieBlack Apr 2018 #120

Can't decide . I liked these two lunasun Apr 2018 #113

Why would we nominate a guy who says he doesn't consider himself a Democrat? MrsCoffee Apr 2018 #124

He needs to get some smarter people around him first Blue_Tires Apr 2018 #127

+1. Definitely needs to take that to heart. IMHO Weaver was his undoing in 2016 emulatorloo Apr 2018 #135

It is best to move on, besides November 2018 is what matters right now. Hoyt Apr 2018 #128

Well said re 2018 n/t emulatorloo Apr 2018 #134

No thanks. I'm a Democrat and want an actual Democrat as the party's nominee. elocs Apr 2018 #129

No. He is a good Senator for Vermont. However, he is not presidential material emulatorloo Apr 2018 #131

Excellent synopsis. EffieBlack Apr 2018 #155

Trump did not win Rust Belt voters based on trade. He won them based on the same lies StevieM Apr 2018 #138

Trump killed Trans Pacific immediately Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #139

People from all parts of the country voted for one of the two candidates for all sorts of reasons. StevieM Apr 2018 #143

NOT in the rust belt Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #145

Without Comey's involvement there would not have been a "difference-maker." StevieM Apr 2018 #146

Dem: Obama's trade push may have cost Clinton the Rust Belt Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #147

Trump didnt become president because of his stance on trade EffieBlack Apr 2018 #148

The rust belt was it Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #150

I disagree with you twice over. StevieM Apr 2018 #152

These Rust Belt Democrats Saw the Trump Wave Coming Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #153

You probably really believe that EffieBlack Apr 2018 #154

Is that why NAFTA-loving Rob Portman won his race easily? Garrett78 Apr 2018 #160

I never said NAFTA was the driving force Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #168

Dozens of links have been posted over the last year that back up what I wrote. Garrett78 Apr 2018 #169

Try reading my links Omaha Steve Apr 2018 #170

I have. And the opinions expressed by a few individuals do nothing to disprove the actual data. Garrett78 Apr 2018 #208

Not again. Crutchez_CuiBono Apr 2018 #151

And he generally stands by his positions. guillaumeb Apr 2018 #158

Like his position that Obama should be primaried Renew Deal Apr 2018 #172

Tax returns tax returns tax returns... Eliot Rosewater Apr 2018 #180

Here's some.... marble falls Apr 2018 #192

With the release of her 2015 income taxes, Clinton has now released 39 years' worth of tax returns Eliot Rosewater Apr 2018 #193

Old, White, Male Tarc Apr 2018 #166

He would lose again Renew Deal Apr 2018 #171

I know of no one who didn't vote for Bernie in 2016 who would vote for him in 2020. I DO know plenty EffieBlack Apr 2018 #220

In order for it to happen Sanders is going to have to run a more honest campaign. NCTraveler Apr 2018 #174

I can't think of any upside from another Sanders presidential campaign. comradebillyboy Apr 2018 #177

What nomination? He wouldn't be running as a Democrat. Lil Missy Apr 2018 #182

Oh no.... heaven05 Apr 2018 #183

Why do Sanders supporters ignore the fact that many Dems do not like him? LonePirate Apr 2018 #201

Many equals Most. nt LexVegas Apr 2018 #210

His favorability rating among Democrats is a mere 76%. Jim Lane Apr 2018 #212

A quick look at the actual poll reveals a few details. ehrnst Apr 2018 #214

It looks like his highwater mark was February 2016, more than two years ago... George II Apr 2018 #216

Yep.(nt) ehrnst Apr 2018 #217

Because they don't listen, they dismiss. betsuni Apr 2018 #213

They think if they just tell us AGAIN, only this time louder, how great Bernie is, EffieBlack Apr 2018 #215

I guess "louder" is "more right" or "more numerous" ehrnst Apr 2018 #218

No thanks sellitman Apr 2018 #221

This Bernie voter and supporter say no thanks. Still In Wisconsin Apr 2018 #222