Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Bad News: Trump's support is rising [View all]pnwmom
(108,977 posts)34. This poll doesn't use a representative sample of anything. It's online and self selected.
From the link that can be found on Reuters own results page:
https://www.aapor.org/Publications-Media/Press-Releases/Archived-Press-Releases/Understanding-a-credibility-interval-and-how-it-d.aspx
The statistical basis for a poll to have a margin of sampling error is that it must be based on a probability sample, where everyone in the population to be surveyed has a chance of being selected and the respondents are selected randomly. Surveys based on self-selected volunteers such as opt-in online polls do not have such a grounded statistical tie to the population. As a result, estimates from self-selected volunteers are subject to unknown error that cannot be measured.
A credibility interval can be developed to measure the theoretical accuracy of nonprobability surveys. The credibility interval relies on assumptions that may be difficult to validate, and the results may be sensitive to these assumptions. So while the adoption of the credibility interval may be appropriate for nonprobability samples such as opt-in online polls, the underlying biases associated with such polls remain a concern.
Consequently, AAPOR urges caution when using credibility intervals or otherwise interpreting results from electoral polls using non-probability online panels. The Association continues to recommend the use of probability based polling to measure the opinions of the general public.
A credibility interval can be developed to measure the theoretical accuracy of nonprobability surveys. The credibility interval relies on assumptions that may be difficult to validate, and the results may be sensitive to these assumptions. So while the adoption of the credibility interval may be appropriate for nonprobability samples such as opt-in online polls, the underlying biases associated with such polls remain a concern.
Consequently, AAPOR urges caution when using credibility intervals or otherwise interpreting results from electoral polls using non-probability online panels. The Association continues to recommend the use of probability based polling to measure the opinions of the general public.
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
48 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
I fear he has now been normalized and accepted, despite being the most racist, dishonest and
Doodley
May 2018
#3
I'm not worried because most folks don't even know what the heck is going on.
Kirk Lover
May 2018
#21
The typical American is ever so clueless and lives in the land of Idiocracy. n/t
RKP5637
May 2018
#38
They should tell the truth, that everything that Trump has done for the economy is
Doodley
May 2018
#8
Try holding an election with only paper ballots, honest counting and no voter suppression
DFW
May 2018
#10
I understand this new Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted in....RNC headquarters
Brother Buzz
May 2018
#12
I can see it happening with the jobs report and Korea in the news. Once the economy
mucifer
May 2018
#16
This poll doesn't use a representative sample of anything. It's online and self selected.
pnwmom
May 2018
#34
Right. Because it's an online, self-selected poll -- not a poll based on a representative sample. n/
pnwmom
May 2018
#37
What this shows is that Trump is getting away with his lies and incompetence with no
Doodley
May 2018
#25