Cynthia Nixon got 0% of the black vote at state Democratic convention

[Jim Lane]

23. In 2014, Zephyr Teachout got three times as many signatures as she needed.

On what basis are you predicting that Nixon will fall short? She starts with much higher name recognition than did Teachout. She also starts with the endorsement of the Working Families Party. In 2014, a lot of WFP members wanted to endorse Teachout. Cuomo headed that off by making the WFP various promises, which he then didn't keep. This time around, Cuomo lost. That suggests that the dissatisfaction with Cuomo among progressives is higher now than it was in 2014. (The WFP has a separate ballot line and could run Nixon even if she loses the primary, but so far it has merely endorsed her, which is different. The point is that, in 2014, Teachout didn't get even that.)

Another difference from 2014 is that Cuomo's corruption problem has gotten even worse. One example, from the Wikipedia article about the "Buffalo Billion" project:

Federal prosecutors filed charges in September 2016.[9] In November 2016, a federal grand jury indicted Cuomo's former aide Joseph Percoco and the former president of the SUNY Polytechnic Institute, Alain Kaloyeros, for bribery and bid rigging, alongside six government contractors.[10] Percoco was accused of taking at least $315,000 in bribes.[10] In March 2018, a federal jury in Manhattan convicted Percoco on felony charges of honest services fraud and soliciting bribes from Competitive Power Ventures, an energy company, and COR Development, a real estate developer.[11][12] Cuomo's former aide Todd Howe had already pleaded guilty to eight corruption charges relating to COR Development and LPCiminelli.[10]

A handful of people connected closely to each other have dominated the process of planning, building and promoting the majority of Buffalo Billion's projects. Some include developers who have contributed to Cuomo's campaign. The New York Times wrote on May 24, 2016:[7]

…federal investigators' interest seems to lie less with whether the people of Buffalo will ultimately benefit than with those who already have: a tangle of well-connected players — including developers and frequent donors to the governor — who have feasted on Buffalo Billion money.

The vote at the state convention doesn't reflect the views of grassroots Democrats. Teachout easily met the petition requirement, and then got more than a third of the vote against Cuomo, despite having almost no support from party officials.