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former9thward

(33,424 posts)

49. I am sure it is.

Mon Jun 18, 2018, 04:11 PM

Jun 2018

I am also sure 538 will be attacked if it shows Trump's numbers going up. And praised if they show his numbers going down. I am also sure that many people don't understand polls are weighted by population. Trump is deeply underwater in high population states like CA, NY and IL. It is simple algebra that since that is the case if he is at the mid 40s nationwide then he is over 50% in the states where he won his electoral votes. People are making the same mistake that was made in 2016.

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Trump Job Approval at 45%, Tying Personal Best [View all] oberliner Jun 2018 OP

I expect it will drop mcar Jun 2018 #1

I hope you are right oberliner Jun 2018 #2

Me too mcar Jun 2018 #3

Yes, plus conservatives are doubling down on Hortensis Jun 2018 #19

Kidnapping babies is not a good look - this will damage him badly. lagomorph777 Jun 2018 #32

Look around you. These are our co-workers. Neighbors. Tatiana Jun 2018 #4

Exactly - their behavior has become more egregious with each GOP administration. lagomorph777 Jun 2018 #33

Yep not fooled Jun 2018 #52

Unfuggingbelievable. Proud Liberal Dem Jun 2018 #5

Still succeeding? He's the bottom feeder in comaparison to other presidents. Kaleva Jun 2018 #8

Succeeding in terms of polls Proud Liberal Dem Jun 2018 #21

meaningless. Still far below the historical average for all presidents since 1945. Kaleva Jun 2018 #6

Exactly the same as Obama at this point in the first term. former9thward Jun 2018 #10

Not if you look across multiple polls. spooky3 Jun 2018 #11

Compare same polls, same methodolgy. former9thward Jun 2018 #41

538's approach is more statistically sound. Nt spooky3 Jun 2018 #47

I am sure it is. former9thward Jun 2018 #49

Thank you for that lesson. I find it interesting that you think this is helpful spooky3 Jun 2018 #50

Here's the difference. mac56 Jun 2018 #18

Obama was at 40% many times in his eight years in this poll. former9thward Jun 2018 #40

Not seeing your point. mac56 Jun 2018 #42

You said 45% was the low for Obama. It wasn't. former9thward Jun 2018 #43

And? mac56 Jun 2018 #44

I don't live or die with polls like many do. former9thward Jun 2018 #48

I agree, but Gallop is not a good poll that his not picking and choosing ...that is a fact. Demsrule86 Jun 2018 #75

Context is important here. John Fante Jun 2018 #22

Yep. Even more pathetic will be Spanky's inevitable tweet about this personal best. ProgRocknProgPol Jun 2018 #25

Inevitable. This clown was taking credit for the economy BEFORE he was inaugurated. He's a joke. John Fante Jun 2018 #37

One can be like a Bible thumper and pick one verse and ignore the context Kaleva Jun 2018 #72

Yougov has him at 40% approve, 51% disapprove. Dawson Leery Jun 2018 #7

The horse race is guaranteed without impeachment. NCTraveler Jun 2018 #9

Trump has really solidified his hold on Republicans NewJeffCT Jun 2018 #12

He really has oberliner Jun 2018 #15

I know his internet pallies are really high on him. Kingofalldems Jun 2018 #13

That's for sure oberliner Jun 2018 #14

You better believe it! Kingofalldems Jun 2018 #16

Diehard rethuglicants voting. lpbk2713 Jun 2018 #17

His composite numbers are . . . peggysue2 Jun 2018 #20

Dont believe it. JDC Jun 2018 #23

I actually expected a higher Korean Summit Bounce ProgRocknProgPol Jun 2018 #24

I'm detecting a solid trend in your posts. PubliusEnigma Jun 2018 #26

He's still a point behind where PBO was at this point in his tenure. DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2018 #27

How can anybody support a baby stealer? C_U_L8R Jun 2018 #28

This can't be helpful to the GOP. lagomorph777 Jun 2018 #34

Smack in the middle of the 44-46% I predicted after the summit Awsi Dooger Jun 2018 #29

Do you expect these types to change their opinion of Spanky based on the child separation issue? ProgRocknProgPol Jun 2018 #31

How can they not? (Not counting pure deplorables) People don't identify with baby-stealers. lagomorph777 Jun 2018 #35

No way his numbers are up. Stable perhaps, not up Freethinker65 Jun 2018 #30

Markets are beginning to jitter with the trade war heating up. lagomorph777 Jun 2018 #36

This must be such exciting news tenderfoot Jun 2018 #38

What does that mean? oberliner Jun 2018 #45

I do not take these polling trends lightly Poiuyt Jun 2018 #39

Well said oberliner Jun 2018 #46

Rethuglicans have no shame. walkingman Jun 2018 #51

Amen oberliner Jun 2018 #53

Fivethirtyeight has him at 42.. just now Thekaspervote Jun 2018 #54

Yes, they aggregate several different polls oberliner Jun 2018 #58

Ahem mcar Jun 2018 #55

Yes, he's lower on the CNN poll oberliner Jun 2018 #59

CNN poll says 39% doc03 Jun 2018 #56

The CNN poll is 30 percent D's, 25 percent R's, and 45 percent I's oberliner Jun 2018 #57

Trying too hard. Kingofalldems Jun 2018 #60

It's worth it to get more info oberliner Jun 2018 #68

So what does that mean? Does that make CNN wrong, neither one has 50/50. nt doc03 Jun 2018 #61

There are more self identified Democrats than Republicans. DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2018 #63

Might explain the discrepancy oberliner Jun 2018 #69

Nate Silver gives CNN an A-, Gallup a B DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2018 #62

Yes, they concluded that his approval rating is at 42 oberliner Jun 2018 #67

42 DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2018 #70

That's the 528 figure oberliner Jun 2018 #71

So you're a pollster now. BannonsLiver Jun 2018 #64

Just sharing the party id data oberliner Jun 2018 #66

It is a shit poll ...gallop. Demsrule86 Jun 2018 #65

It is Gallop...CNN is below 40...why even post Gallup ? Demsrule86 Jun 2018 #73

Fuck him and those that prop him up. spanone Jun 2018 #74

The ugly truth is that 40% of the country are racist, sexists, bigots, and all the excuses or still_one Jun 2018 #76