May I Attempt to Predict America's Political Future?

[louis c]

39. I'm sorry you don't understand

That's too bad.

I'll try once more.

Many reputable polls and nearly every special election and scheduled election in 2017 and 2018 has borne out that the electorate is voting Democratic. A generic poll is a poll that asks the question "would you rather the Democrats or the Republicans control congress?" Ever since this poll has been in existence, it is accurate. Taking gerrymandering into account, most political experts believe that the Democrats must have a plus 6% to have a chance of winning a majority of House seats. So, at a plus 16%, the sentiment of the voting public would be so overwhelmingly Democratic, that we would win a large majority of seats. In gerrymandering in 2010, Republicans had to make voting assumptions and predictions in each state and slice the votes relatively thin. The Dem districts were 80% Dem, but the Republican districts were more like 55% to 60% Rep., most were closer to the 55%. But, the Reps. assumed that college educated, white suburban voters (the type that would be comfortable with a Bush, a McCain or a Romney) would remain loyal. Unfortunately for them, those are the deserters. Now, before you go off saying that Trump still gets 90% of Republicans, remember that fewer and fewer voters are self-describing as Rep. In other words, 90% of 1,000 is not quite the same as 90% of 1,200. The most recent polls that I've seen is that Rep are down about 25% (an overall decline of 6% in hard numbers). You know, like 40% becomes 34% in an overall poll (hence the down 15%).

But I must correct you of one thing, you are far from an optimist, IMHO. You're not even a skeptic or a pessimist. You are a defeatist.

Too bad.