The Republican Party isn't shrinking. [View all]

[Garrett78]

I keep seeing posts about how the Republican base is shrinking but I've seen no evidence to support that claim. We'd all like it to be true, but believing doesn't make it so.

Someone posted a couple of articles that point to the Gallup survey as evidence for the claim, but the Gallup survey doesn't actually support the claim.

Now, if you go back to 2004, you do see a pretty substantial decline in party affiliation and a rise in the number of people claiming no affiliation (i.e, 'independents').

But there's been very little change in recent years: https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx. The most recent survey was taken in June.

In June of this year, 27% self-identify as Rep., 43% as independents and 29% as Dem.

In June of 2017, those numbers were 26, 42 and 30, respectively.

In June of 2016, it was 27, 41 and 30.

In June of 2015, it was 25, 41 and 31.

In June of 2014, it was 24, 46 and 28.

In June of 2013, it was 26, 41 and 31.

Anyway, you get the idea.

Lastly, I will once again remind everyone that the vast majority of so-called "independents" are actually very partisan. They just like calling themselves "independent" for one reason or another (wanting to sound reasonable, being too embarrassed to admit who they truly support, wanting to avoid political conversations, or whatever the reason may be). It's been all the rage lately to argue that Republican affiliation is undergoing a precipitous decline (and that that's why Trump's popularity within the Republican Party is so sky high), but I've seen no polling data that supports that. Wishing doesn't make it so.