For Democrats, the elusive dream of a blue Georgia hinges on rapidly diversifying Atlanta suburbs

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Need Georgia to report 40% or fewer conservatives this year

That's all I care about, as indication toward future trend, essentially the Virginia model 15 years later. If Georgia holds at 42% self-identified conservatives -- like the 2016 exit poll -- then it remain a tease state and out of reach. But if we get a modest but meaningful drop to 40% conservatives, even with a statewide defeat, then that's a great sign looking ahead. The state doesn't become winnable in balanced national terrain until those conservatives are 37% or fewer.