The drama in the republican race isn't going to be in Iowa. It will be in NH.

[onenote]

3. I think there is little to no chance that Mitt will lose in NH

He's consistently polled in the upper 30s to low 40s. No one else in the field can barely scrape past 20. Even if Mitt finishes third in Iowa, he'll still be 35 plus in NH. And the also rans don't have enough support that, if they drop out, their votes will be enough to overcome Mitt's margin. Paul, who's been in the upper teens to 20 percent, might climb up to 25-28 with a victory in Iowa, but that's it. Santorum, who is in the single digits, might get up into the teens with a good Iowa showing, but those two will split the "not Romney" vote. Huntsman will continue to get around 10 percent. Gingrich will drop, but still be hanging around 10 percent or a bit more.

At least that's how it looks to me.