The Blue Wave Rises, Con't. Beto O'Rourke has a real shot against Ted Cruz, and this is why.

[Awsi Dooger]

111. Interesting 538 discussion on what it takes to flip an unlikely state

This Beto/Cruz discussion is from April but it applies overall and I think analytical types will appreciate it, even though the more emotional types might not.

There is plenty of talk regarding changing states and what differentiates them, whether it's a one-off switch or something more logical and long term.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-does-it-take-to-flip-a-state-from-red-to-blue-or-blue-to-red/

Overall Texas is described as a meaningful Demographic switch but Nate believes it is probably unlikely for Beto. I agree completely with Nate's summary of the terrain, described here:

natesilver: So the way I see it is something like this: Texas has a 12-point Republican lean, but the national environment favors Democrats by, say, 9 points, but then Cruz has like a 5-point incumbency advantage (slightly less than normal). So that would put Cruz ahead by mid-to-high single digits. That’s my prior, anyway.