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mythology

(9,527 posts)
32. You should direct the snark to the people above
Wed Aug 29, 2018, 06:21 PM
Aug 2018

They are making the claim, one that looks rather laughable if you consider a higher proportion of Sanders 2016 primary supporters voted for Clinton in the 2016 general election than Clinton 2008 primary supporters voted for Obama in the 2008 general election. In fact Sanders supporters were in line with historical averages of about 10%. If they want to assert that Clinton lost because Sanders didn't concede as quickly as they like, they need to support the assertion rather than just stating it as a fact.

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

A more important caveat, perhaps, is that other statistics suggest that this level of "defection" isn't all that out of the ordinary. Believing that all those Sanders voters somehow should have been expected to not vote for Trump may be to misunderstand how primary voters behave.
FACT CHECK: 10 Statements From Trump's Phoenix Speech
Politics
FACT CHECK: 10 Statements From Trump's Phoenix Speech

For example, Schaffner tells NPR that around 12 percent of Republican primary voters (including 34 percent of Ohio Gov. John Kasich voters and 11 percent of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio voters) ended up voting for Clinton. And according to one 2008 study, around 25 percent of Clinton primary voters in that election ended up voting for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the general. (In addition, the data showed 13 percent of McCain primary voters ended up voting for Obama, and 9 percent of Obama voters ended up voting for McCain — perhaps signaling something that swayed voters between primaries and the general election, or some amount of error in the data, or both.)


Some studies show a negative impact of a contentious primary - although it specifically looked at southern states with runoff voting, not necessarily representative of the U.S. as a whole. Others like 538, don't see a strong relationship.

https://www.vox.com/2016/5/5/11593668/close-primaries-general-election

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-shouldnt-drop-out-for-clintons-sake/

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Class. Brava! eom sprinkleeninow Aug 2018 #1
+1 MLAA Aug 2018 #8
That is EXACTLY the way to do it. sheshe2 Aug 2018 #2
Didn't the other Democrat in the race spend 10 million on attack ads on her MattP Aug 2018 #3
Jeff Greene thinks trump is a nice guy radical noodle Aug 2018 #9
Indeed! 2naSalit Aug 2018 #4
Great message! MaryMagdaline Aug 2018 #5
Yeah Gothmog Aug 2018 #6
Yes! You get on board immediately and enthusiastically! Cha Aug 2018 #7
It can make a huge difference in November radical noodle Aug 2018 #12
I know exactly what you mean, rad. Cha Aug 2018 #13
It Does? ProfessorGAC Aug 2018 #20
Of course it does radical noodle Aug 2018 #22
An Opinion To Support An Opinion? ProfessorGAC Aug 2018 #23
No doubt, a sincere query would satisfy itself by research. LanternWaste Aug 2018 #25
You should direct the snark to the people above mythology Aug 2018 #32
Would you have preferred that Graham radical noodle Aug 2018 #38
When you lose you pretend you NEVER said a SINGLE word that you did say in the Eliot Rosewater Aug 2018 #27
They are friends radical noodle Aug 2018 #10
Right on ! WheelWalker Aug 2018 #11
K & R SunSeeker Aug 2018 #14
Awesome! K&R DesertRat Aug 2018 #15
She didn't wait to get behind the winner and encourage her BigmanPigman Aug 2018 #16
K&R Scurrilous Aug 2018 #17
k and r Achilleaze Aug 2018 #18
K&R smirkymonkey Aug 2018 #19
Very classy to move so fast. Vinca Aug 2018 #21
We should all follow her fine example. n/t QC Aug 2018 #24
Recommended! H2O Man Aug 2018 #26
k&R BlueJac Aug 2018 #28
Class act! Soxfan58 Aug 2018 #29
a grown up! msdogi Aug 2018 #30
Love her and am proud to have voted for her in primary. lark Aug 2018 #31
Or we can fight amongst ourselves in a way that hands it to the GOP IronLionZion Aug 2018 #33
hell yeah GregD Aug 2018 #34
I remember in 2008 Hillary did something very similar for Obama FakeNoose Aug 2018 #35
A few days after the convention in 2008, she hopped on Obama's kickoff bus tour with him.... George II Aug 2018 #36
They need to find her another office to run for Sucha NastyWoman Aug 2018 #37
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