The Blue Wave Rises, Con't. Beto O'Rourke has a real shot against Ted Cruz, and this is why.

[Awsi Dooger]

174. Balanced overall but very high disapproval numbers

Somewhat like Trump. People who hate Cruz really hate him. No need to ask why.

Here are some numbers from Texas Politics. They poll the state every year and not merely in regard to political races, so I trust their sampling and overall findings. This is from June:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/sites/texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/201806_poll_uttt_toplines.pdf

Q22. Please tell us whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neither favorable
nor unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Ted Cruz.

1. Very favorable 23%
2. Somewhat favorable 18
3. Neither favorable nor unfavorable 10
4. Somewhat unfavorable 8
5. Very unfavorable 34
6. Don’t know/no opinion 7

Q23. Please tell us whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neither favorable
nor unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Beto O’Rourke.

1. Very favorable 22%
2. Somewhat favorable 15
3. Neither favorable nor unfavorable 16
4. Somewhat unfavorable 8
5. Very unfavorable 16
6. Don’t know/no opinion 24

***

But here is the main problem Beto faces. I look at ideology at least tenfold above any other variable. There are simply too many damn conservatives in Texas, equating to very, very, very low margin for error for someone like Beto in a federal race, since voters treat federal races like a mini presidency.

From the same link:

LIBCON. On a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 is extremely liberal, 7 is extremely conservative, and 4
is exactly in the middle, where would you place yourself? [Wording on scale: (1) “Extremely
liberal,” (4) “In the middle,” (7) “Extremely conservative”]

1. Extremely liberal 10%
2. Somewhat liberal 13
3. Lean liberal 8
4. In the middle 26
5. Lean conservative 9
6. Somewhat conservative 18
7. Extremely conservative 17

***

That's the reality, the 13% gap between Texans who label themselves some type of liberal (31%) and the ones who self-identify as conservatives (44%).

Texas is stubbornly not changing in terms of percentage of voters who call themselves conservative. This 44% number is the same from the 2016 exit poll. I always quote that 44% in regard to Texas. It is the reason I am not a believer in Texas' transition away from a red state. I have followed this closely since 1992 and every truly shifting state -- either way -- first demonstrates a move in ideology. The dominant side starts to drop. In Texas not only is that not taking place, but a full 35% still call themselves either Extremely or Somewhat conservative. Those are not the weak categories.

Maybe it will drop below 44% in this year's exit poll. Probably will, in a decisively blue year. But unless that 44% drops to 40% or lower in the exit poll I think it is mostly a blip and will bump up to at least 42% in 2020.

Arizona is next on the flip list in terms of presidential level. Texas is so far behind it is not worth mentioning the two together.