The next Democratic nominee for president needs to be a woman.

[JHan]

31. I love those links...and particularly this bit:

The "Jill Robinson theory" of high-achieving, women Congress members
Another way legislators serve their constituents is by bringing programs and money to their districts — securing more money to start a pre-K program, for example, or dollars to repave local roads.

All told, Congress allocated $20.8 trillion in federal outlays (excluding defense and military spending) from 1984 to 2004. Women, it turns out, did a better job at getting their share of that money. On average, female legislators sent 9 percent more funds back to their districts than their male colleagues. Districts represented by women received an additional $49 million annually on average compared to their male-represented counterparts.

Sarah Anzia, the author of this study, argues that this might reflect something particular about the type of women who run for Congress. Multiple studies have found that women underestimate their qualifications for office compared to men. When you look at a comparable group of lawyers, business leaders, and others likely to run for office, the men are significantly more likely to say that they’d make a good politician.

"One of the common jokes in this field is that every day, there are a million men who wake up in the morning, look in the mirror, and say 'I’d be a great congressman,'" says Heidi Hartmann, an economist who runs the Institute for Women’s Policy Research. "And there aren’t that many women who do that."

As such, Anzia hypothesizes that the women who do assess their qualifications positively are those who are actually overqualified for the job.

"If women … underestimate their qualifications for office, then only the most qualified, politically ambitious females will emerge as candidates," Anzia writes. "The women who are elected to office will perform better, on average, than their male counterparts."

Anzia dubs this the "Jill Robinson effect" after Jackie Robinson, the first black baseball player who was also heralded as one of the top talents in the game. "Robinson had to be better than almost any white player in order to overcome the prejudice of owners, players, and fans," Anzia writes.

Another thing that occurred to me just now is how Presidents are a contrast to each other. Typically they run counter to who the opposing party nominates, and they come to symbolize a rejection of the predecessor.

Trump's anti-intellectualism, nativism, and vulgarity is a response to Obama's decency and his progressive vision of diversity. In '08 Obama's scholarly and cultured persona was a response to Bush's ignorance and evangelicalism. In 2000 Bush sold himself as a down to earth, family man with good Christian values, in response to Clinton's lascivious reputation as a result of the Lewinsky affair. Clinton sold himself as an outsider from the south who was approachable, a cool guy who can play the sax - in contrast to Bush Snr's "blue blood" background, elitism and patrician manner. Reagan sold himself as a cheerful sunny optimist in response to Carter's somber realism. And Carter sold himself as clean and honest in response to Nixon's toxic presidency and the corruption of Watergate. Nixon in some ways personified the backlash to the civil rights movement and Johnson, appealing to the "the silent majority". And so on.

So, who would we envision as being the opposite of Trump The Pussygrabber? Who is the anti-Trump? Who would be seen to restore America's standing in the world, heal relationships with allies, with a gift or at least some talent for diplomacy? What sort of person would attract the votes of those in the crosshairs of this administration? What sort of person would get the interest of women in the surburbs, POC, and represent a complete and total rejection of all that Trump stands for?


In the 2016 matchup, they managed to drag Clinton to Trump's level, with a massive disinformation campaign. Now that we are aware of the dynamics of 2016, the next nominee won't face a similar fate - hopefully.