General Discussion

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

7. The polls were correct in 2016

Mon Sep 3, 2018, 03:04 PM

Sep 2018

This year is a problem because it is much more difficult to predict
1) state polls are more infrequent and the key to polla is watching the change of the same polls in the same place.

2) off year elections have wide swings in turnout

3) the intensity of emotion on the Democrats side cannot be measured.

For example we have a lot of data on "generic congressional ballot" but we have non generic outstanding candidates, including a phalanx of gifted highly intelligent women.

We are going to outperform predictions.

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Can we please stop with the "polls were wrong in 2016" narritive [View all] louis c Sep 2018 OP

The polls weren't the wrong thing in 2016... TCJ70 Sep 2018 #1

What happened is what Russia planned. lark Sep 2018 #3

Exactly. iluvtennis Sep 2018 #24

Nope. There is still absolutely zero evidence of any votes being changed mythology Sep 2018 #25

Usual Red Herring via strawman of "votes being changed" uponit7771 Sep 2018 #37

Ahem. garybeck Sep 2018 #48

There was some voter suppression and voter turnout plunged. CentralMass Sep 2018 #52

The MI vote counting got shut down. lark Sep 2018 #53

Thank you. Nt raccoon Sep 2018 #68

We need to get rid of that thing yuiyoshida Sep 2018 #19

Agreed. N/t TCJ70 Sep 2018 #35

Especially Since It Isn't Working As Intended ProfessorGAC Sep 2018 #60

Correct. Pollster have to go with some assumptions underpants Sep 2018 #2

Maybe he 'won'. triron Sep 2018 #5

Baiman is a moron using a long ago discredited conspiracy theory that shouldn't be taken seriously mythology Sep 2018 #22

Thank you. paleotn Sep 2018 #61

Unavoidable biases in samples Amemenhab Sep 2018 #64

Close victories are the most suspect garybeck Sep 2018 #49

I believe the polls were correct and where there was some huge unexplained deviation and swing in # Pachamama Sep 2018 #4

Polls are only as good as people answering polls at140 Sep 2018 #6

As someone who has a very good understanding about polls and observed them being taken, I call BS on Pachamama Sep 2018 #33

I was never a pollster, but I watch cable news at140 Sep 2018 #43

"I was never a pollster, but I watch cable news" NCTraveler Sep 2018 #57

Not Buying That Point erpowers Sep 2018 #42

Preventing voters and exit polling are separate issues. at140 Sep 2018 #44

The polls were correct in 2016 grantcart Sep 2018 #7

I agree louis c Sep 2018 #8

Don't polls pretty much ignore people who have cell phones but no landline? tblue37 Sep 2018 #9

no. they are actually calling cells louis c Sep 2018 #11

I've been polled on my mobile number. Codeine Sep 2018 #47

She won election but antiquated Electoral College was stolen by R dirty tricks & T-Rus'n collusion. Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2018 #10

You're conflating election polls with favorability ratings brooklynite Sep 2018 #12

Polls are polls and louis c Sep 2018 #17

Didn't she get about 2.5 million more votes, but won California by about 3 million more? braddy Sep 2018 #13

HRC's popular vote margin: Nationally: 2.87 million more. California: 4.27 million more progree Sep 2018 #16

California has a different population than those states due to immigration replacement. braddy Sep 2018 #27

The margin of error should also be included in the discussion Bradshaw3 Sep 2018 #14

The other thing is all their nefarious effort and mischief could be focused on one person... deurbano Sep 2018 #15

Comey was manipulated by the NYFO bucolic_frolic Sep 2018 #21

And I'm waiting for THAT investigation. deurbano Sep 2018 #26

The polls were correct. Hillary won. bitterross Sep 2018 #18

"older, first time voters without voting history" bucolic_frolic Sep 2018 #20

I don't know about your local, businessman's election, but louis c Sep 2018 #29

Active Measures AlexSFCA Sep 2018 #23

I believe the polls were correct and the election was stolen. NRaleighLiberal Sep 2018 #28

So do I. k8conant Sep 2018 #30

+100000000 Pachamama Sep 2018 #34

Yes... Mike Nelson Sep 2018 #31

Too many people cherish state polls and ignore national polls Awsi Dooger Sep 2018 #32

I agree with you. But I think a reverse dynamic is a play in 2018 louis c Sep 2018 #36

Reluctant Bush responders. Older first time voters, next it will be purple unicorns... lostnfound Sep 2018 #38

*** ALL STATES HRC LOST BY MOE WERE VOTER SUPPRESSION RED STATES*** uponit7771 Sep 2018 #39

Again I cite Dr. Ron Baiman's affadavit on 2016 exit polls. triron Sep 2018 #45

Favorability polls are far different than candidate polls. former9thward Sep 2018 #40

Again, let's go through this step by step louis c Sep 2018 #41

Can we stop talking about the 2016 election and focus on the one happening this year? Initech Sep 2018 #46

"Those who do not learn from History are doomed to repeat it" (NT) louis c Sep 2018 #50

the polls all came in within the margin of error in almost all the states beachbum bob Sep 2018 #51

Nordstrom may be a swell place to buy shoes, but the governor of Virginia is mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2018 #54

I believe the polls were correct, and his squeaked-out victory was due to the Bradley Effect Tarc Sep 2018 #55

No. Never in our history have 12 out of 13 polls been wrong. Honeycombe8 Sep 2018 #56

The polls didn't figure in the hacks RhodeIslandOne Sep 2018 #58

It's funny how we complain about the polls when we lose, but not when we win. progressoid Sep 2018 #59

A significant part of my job.... paleotn Sep 2018 #62

Yup. Advance polls and actual election are two different beasts. Amemenhab Sep 2018 #63

welcome to DU gopiscrap Sep 2018 #65

It was mostly Targeted Vote Suppression populistdriven Sep 2018 #66

Well, it's true the polls did not account for... Trueblue Texan Sep 2018 #67