General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Can we please stop with the "polls were wrong in 2016" narritive [View all]louis c
(8,652 posts)with Trump, it was racism. No party has offered an open racist for President since Woodrow Wilson. The closest I can come was Wallace in 1968, or Thurmond in 1948, but neither were major party candidates.
Racists will vote against their own best interests, because they a racists and bigots first and their personal best interests come second. We all know a racist or bigot who has turned his back on his children for who they dated or married. This was not in his best interest, but he served his racism or bigotry first.
Now, for my opinion on the voting dynamic, these people who voted for the first time for Trump will not come out for a mid-term. I believe they are being qualified by Rasmussen as likely voters, but I think they are not, especially in 2018. I think your enthusiastic voters who are registering for the first time, or sat out 2016 because they couldn't cotton to Hillary (I think they learned a hard lesson), who are, maybe, 18 to 26 years old are not recorded in the polls as likely voters. But, it is my opinion, they will not miss this election to vote Democratic under any conditions.
Thus, the enthusiasm gap. I work on GOTV and, let me tell you, it's a lot easier to get a person to the polls who wants to vote than one who spends all day trying to avoid you. I think we have a lot of the former this year.