Prediction: Kavanaugh won't be confirmed

[grantcart]

46. Incorrect on all three points

1) Your use of the word moot is incorrect.

To begin with moot doesn't mean 'immaterial to the facts' which is a common usage and probably what you meant, it actually means "unsettled"

subject to debate, dispute, or uncertainty, and typically not admitting of a final decision.

What you probably intended to mean was that it was moot in the sense that a legal motion can be rendered "moot" if it is found not to be material to the question and doesn't need a ruling.

In any case neither you nor I decide whether the issue is moot, only the voters will decide. You can choose to ignore it as a factor, which you obviously have.

What could be the factor?

These races are currently statistically tied:

Nelson FL +1
Bredsen TN -5
Donelly +2
Sinema +2
McCaskill +3
Heller -4
Tester +4

So the question is if a loss on Kavanaugh reinforces the current trend of increased right wing turn out is it worth it to block Kavanaugh and lose 7 Senate seats?

Giving the Republicans the Senate for 2 more years carries a high risk that another justice may be incapacitated during that time giving them a) either another democratic seat or b) replacing an elderly Republican with a younger one.

Ginzberg age 85
Breyer 80
Thomas 70 ( I wouldn't put it past Thomas to resign simply to give the ability to control the seat for another 40 years)

So the Hobsian choice we might be faced with is

1) A seat held by Kavanaugh or some other equally repugnant right wing apparatchik but we get control of the Senate

or

2) Loss of the Senate in which case the seat will still be filled by a right wing apparatchik but they could also then confirm one or two more justices in the next 2 years and control the Senate.

Don't get me wrong, if Kavanaugh gets voted down I will celebrate but I am also aware that the cost could be unbearable and me declaring it "moot" doesn't make it moot to the voters in TN, AZ, MT, NV or FL.

2) You and I agree that Kavanaugh is a 'fix' for Trump. What I find difficult to understand is why you don't also think that the next nominee (or two or three) won't also be a fix for Trump. Who ever Trump nominates is going to believe that the President is untouchable.

3) "Impeaching a sitting SCJOOTUS is damn near impossible" Really? How about removing an elected Vice President of the United States that received 88 million votes? It would be obviously more difficult to do the latter but it took only 10 days to remove Agnew after it was discovered that he had taken a relatively small payment of $ 10,000 that had nothing to do with his job as Vice President.

If a criminal conviction against Kavanaugh was brought on either the perjury (which seems strong on the Mendez allegation) or on any of the sexual assault charges and looked like it would result in a criminal conviction with time served the prosecutors would offer and Kavanaugh would take the same deal that Agnew took. How strong are either of those cases? Nobody knows but IF he faces a conviction then removal would not only not be impossible, not just likely but almost certain. The question is are the assault charges strong enough to prosecute (I assume it would come down to Mark Judge) or whether his texts to get his friends to back him up on Mendez charge fall within the narrow legal discussion of perjury.


If Kavanaugh is blocked I will take a day off of canvassing for Sinema and celebrate.

If we lose the Senate because of it I will regret it for the rest of my life.