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Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
15. I mentioned Hillary's 26% in West Virginia in another thread a couple of hours ago
Fri Oct 5, 2018, 05:46 PM
Oct 2018

I follow that stuff closely for betting purposes, and my so-called Partisan Adjustment Number (PAN) for each state.

I've done this since 1992. I used to post the numbers here for every state. No state has come close to shifting like West Virginia has. For reference, in 1992 the West Virginia PAN was +7.4% Democratic, since Bill Clinton carried the state by 13% while winning nationally by 5.6%

Fast forward to 2016, where Hillary loses West Virginia by 42.1% while winning nationally by 2.1%.

So that a red PAN of 44.2%, and a net change from 1992 of 51.6%

It looks like a typo, but it not. That's how much West Virginia has changed in a quarter century, in terms of how it votes compared to the national number.

Granted, and as I mentioned in the other thread, Trump's bullshit promises regarding the coal industry and restoring jobs helped to inflate his margin over Hillary in 2016.

I'm annoyed at Manchin because I'm convinced he's a wimp. I'm sure he sweated out Collins' stance at least briefly because he didn't want to vote No and jeopardize his own race. Eventually I'll come back in his direction, unless he uses the Democratic Party finances toward re-election and then changes parties, like another wimp -- Richard Shelby -- in November 1994.

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