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Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
7. A victory like 2016 lends to sustained enthusiasm
Sat Oct 6, 2018, 10:35 PM
Oct 2018

If we don't understand that, or deny it, we flunk psychology.

Their voters went way outside the box and succeeded, despite all odds and sustained mockery. They view Trump as a savior and a crusade. There is no chance they are going to sit back and allow it to be taken away due to their own laziness.

For those reasons the enthusiasm and motivation gap this cycle will be less than typical, not greater than typical. We have benefited for months by misguided polling that wrongly proposed low energy on the GOP side. It is similar to early fall 2016 when nonsense polling had Republicans not backing Trump in typical percentage. Once that normalized the gap narrowed, even before James Comey changed history.

Our fate rests with independent voters. Nothing else. We will not win via motivation or turnout. Every poll can basically be ignored other than the preference of independent voters. It shouldn't be difficult to find. There will be one article and news segment after another regarding independent voters and what they are thinking/how they are shifting.

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