****A + Rated WAPO poll**** Generic Ballot Democrats 53% Repugnants 42%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The peer reviewed research attests to the efficacy of the generic ballot as a predictive tool

Will Democrats Catch a Wave?
The Generic Ballot Model and the 2018 U.S. House Elections

Alan Abramowitz

This article presents a simple model that uses results of generic ballot polling to predict the outcome of the 2018 elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. The “generic ballot” refers to a question included in numerous national polls asking voters which party they favor in the House elections without providing the names of the candidates. When combined with two other variables—the party of the president and the number of seats held by each party prior to the election—this model produces very accurate predictions of seat swing in House midterm elections. The model currently predicts a strong likelihood of a Democratic takeover of the House.

For the 18 midterm elections since World War II, the results of the generic ballot test are highly correlated with the party division of the national popular vote for the House (r=.82). The generic ballot also can accurately predict seat swing in midterm elections when incorporated in a statistical forecasting model (Moore and Saad 1997; McGhee and Baldassare 2004; Abramowitz 2010; Abramowitz 2014). In this article, I use results of a simple three-variable model including the generic ballot to provide conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2018 midterm election.


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I wish I could link it. It's in a google doc.