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Iggo

(49,929 posts)

4. Second ticket? That's another chance at the same odds.

Reply to JohnnyRingo (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2018, 01:26 PM

Oct 2018

I've explained this to my coworkers, and they nod their heads, but I don't think they get it.

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Powerball simulator plays 1,000 draws a second. [View all] JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 OP

Odds are pretty damn slim! Roland99 Oct 2018 #1

That's known as the Gambler's Fallacy, I think. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #2

not quite true.... getagrip_already Oct 2018 #3

Correct. I was incorrectly thinking of each combination in a separate set. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #13

what is interesting..... getagrip_already Oct 2018 #29

No it isn't the gambler's fallacy Vox Populi Oct 2018 #8

You're confusing chances and odds, and I'm going to leave it at that. (n/t) Iggo Oct 2018 #14

Nope. Adrahil Oct 2018 #19

Pretty sure you increase your odds as well. WeekiWater Oct 2018 #26

You double your chances with a second ticket. Iggo Oct 2018 #53

Here's proof you double your chances. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #58

I will accept that double of statistical nothing is nothing. Iggo Oct 2018 #62

Absolutely. By buying 10,000 tickets, for example, you're making terrible odds better, but still Oneironaut Oct 2018 #63

So my statement is accurate. N/T WeekiWater Oct 2018 #83

The Gambler's Fallacy is that previous outcomes in random chance affect future outcomes underpants Oct 2018 #76

Second ticket? That's another chance at the same odds. Iggo Oct 2018 #4

what? Vox Populi Oct 2018 #6

You're both right. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #9

exactly correct.... Adrahil Oct 2018 #20

Equally true. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #21

You absolutely do not "double your odds". JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #10

Actually, wouldn't a better analogy be that you have 6 card decks, and you choose a card. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #11

No JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #16

If, for one draw, you buy 2 tickets, and they are different, then you do have double the odds muriel_volestrangler Oct 2018 #18

Isn't that only true for different drawings, though? Oneironaut Oct 2018 #22

But you're changing the setup. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #24

There are a finite number of possible outcomes... Adrahil Oct 2018 #17

yes they go from 1 in 292 million qazplm135 Oct 2018 #28

Yes.... which is double.... Adrahil Oct 2018 #33

Think about that. JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #37

Buying a second ticket doubles the odds. Buying a third doesn't double them again. fishwax Oct 2018 #39

+1 NT Adrahil Oct 2018 #51

NO. Adrahil Oct 2018 #42

Yep, you got it except that SECOND ticket really does Double Drahthaardogs Oct 2018 #45

That's is a unique situation. Adrahil Oct 2018 #47

Exactly, but that is where people are getting confused Drahthaardogs Oct 2018 #48

Well said. NT Adrahil Oct 2018 #49

The odds of winning the jackpot aren't 1 in 292m, though. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #59

Depends on the game Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #66

Why do you put the card back? Kaleva Oct 2018 #31

Because the stock of numbers stays the same for every play. JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #38

Not sure what you are getting at here... Adrahil Oct 2018 #43

But the play is done only once. Kaleva Oct 2018 #77

That's not correct Takket Oct 2018 #40

Yup. Adrahil Oct 2018 #44

You're doubling your chances, not your odds. JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #50

All what matters for a player is the chance to win Hav Oct 2018 #56

No JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #75

I think I'm starting to see where one part of the confusion comes from Hav Oct 2018 #82

I agree. JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #86

Even if you bought 1000 tickets at those odds, Oneironaut Oct 2018 #61

I think he's confused because Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #65

It does. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #64

. Iggo Oct 2018 #12

IMO... if one single person is going to consistently play a lotto type game... roamer65 Oct 2018 #5

The odds at winning the Michigan Fantasy 5 is 1: 575,757 Kaleva Oct 2018 #32

how much does it cost ? JI7 Oct 2018 #35

1 dollar Kaleva Oct 2018 #78

About that.... GemDigger Oct 2018 #7

IMO you're paying for the thrill. And that's 100%. nolabear Oct 2018 #15

"The pleasure is to play. Makes no difference what you say." Iggo Oct 2018 #23

Nope. Never. The analysis is never any fun - Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #25

the only way to significantly improve your odds qazplm135 Oct 2018 #27

You'd have to have to wait for the pot to hit 584 million, Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #30

Right this is mainly a theoretical game. Adrahil Oct 2018 #34

Hardly anyone has done the math - Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #36

Isn't it $2 per ticket? grantcart Oct 2018 #84

No idea. I don't gamble. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #87

Correct but you undervalued the actual cost by 100% so it is even more grantcart Oct 2018 #88

It's at 1.6 billion now thus my comment qazplm135 Oct 2018 #41

I don't gamble, so I've got no clue what the prize is at. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #60

You realize you can buy more than one ticket qazplm135 Oct 2018 #67

You and your team would have to buy about 850 tickets per second, from the moment after fishwax Oct 2018 #69

Given that you can buy more than one at a time qazplm135 Oct 2018 #70

at one second per number Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #72

You can buy more than one at a time, but in this case you would have to buy *specific* numbers fishwax Oct 2018 #74

Did you see my time calcualtion a few posts up? Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #71

I love this thread because of all the math geeks arguing probabilities... SidDithers Oct 2018 #46

THAT MontanaMama Oct 2018 #52

They are needed indeed Hav Oct 2018 #54

Yup.... Adrahil Oct 2018 #79

Nowhere near as epic as this one: muriel_volestrangler Oct 2018 #68

WOW Adrahil Oct 2018 #81

The odds of picking the exact sequence of cards after shuffling the deck twice lapfog_1 Oct 2018 #55

Place your bets on Democrats. Better odds. More Winners IADEMO2004 Oct 2018 #57

Your math is wrong... brooklynite Oct 2018 #73

+1 grantcart Oct 2018 #85

To quote Han Solo krispos42 Oct 2018 #80