General Discussion

getagrip_already

(17,802 posts)

29. what is interesting.....

Sat Oct 20, 2018, 05:17 PM

Oct 2018

is that when someone went back and looked at all the winning numbers since the game (I think it was powerball, but it was definitely one with balls) began, a few pop up far more frequently than others.

I don't have the article handy, but you can google it.

It's still within statistical norms though, just not truly random.

Is that because some of the balls are heavier than others, or the way they start them out, or some other non random factor, or just plain old chance?

Dunno. But it would be smart money to play those numbers more frequently, at least some of the time.

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Powerball simulator plays 1,000 draws a second. [View all] JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 OP

Odds are pretty damn slim! Roland99 Oct 2018 #1

That's known as the Gambler's Fallacy, I think. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #2

not quite true.... getagrip_already Oct 2018 #3

Correct. I was incorrectly thinking of each combination in a separate set. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #13

what is interesting..... getagrip_already Oct 2018 #29

No it isn't the gambler's fallacy Vox Populi Oct 2018 #8

You're confusing chances and odds, and I'm going to leave it at that. (n/t) Iggo Oct 2018 #14

Nope. Adrahil Oct 2018 #19

Pretty sure you increase your odds as well. WeekiWater Oct 2018 #26

You double your chances with a second ticket. Iggo Oct 2018 #53

Here's proof you double your chances. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #58

I will accept that double of statistical nothing is nothing. Iggo Oct 2018 #62

Absolutely. By buying 10,000 tickets, for example, you're making terrible odds better, but still Oneironaut Oct 2018 #63

So my statement is accurate. N/T WeekiWater Oct 2018 #83

The Gambler's Fallacy is that previous outcomes in random chance affect future outcomes underpants Oct 2018 #76

Second ticket? That's another chance at the same odds. Iggo Oct 2018 #4

what? Vox Populi Oct 2018 #6

You're both right. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #9

exactly correct.... Adrahil Oct 2018 #20

Equally true. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #21

You absolutely do not "double your odds". JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #10

Actually, wouldn't a better analogy be that you have 6 card decks, and you choose a card. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #11

No JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #16

If, for one draw, you buy 2 tickets, and they are different, then you do have double the odds muriel_volestrangler Oct 2018 #18

Isn't that only true for different drawings, though? Oneironaut Oct 2018 #22

But you're changing the setup. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #24

There are a finite number of possible outcomes... Adrahil Oct 2018 #17

yes they go from 1 in 292 million qazplm135 Oct 2018 #28

Yes.... which is double.... Adrahil Oct 2018 #33

Think about that. JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #37

Buying a second ticket doubles the odds. Buying a third doesn't double them again. fishwax Oct 2018 #39

+1 NT Adrahil Oct 2018 #51

NO. Adrahil Oct 2018 #42

Yep, you got it except that SECOND ticket really does Double Drahthaardogs Oct 2018 #45

That's is a unique situation. Adrahil Oct 2018 #47

Exactly, but that is where people are getting confused Drahthaardogs Oct 2018 #48

Well said. NT Adrahil Oct 2018 #49

The odds of winning the jackpot aren't 1 in 292m, though. Oneironaut Oct 2018 #59

Depends on the game Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #66

Why do you put the card back? Kaleva Oct 2018 #31

Because the stock of numbers stays the same for every play. JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #38

Not sure what you are getting at here... Adrahil Oct 2018 #43

But the play is done only once. Kaleva Oct 2018 #77

That's not correct Takket Oct 2018 #40

Yup. Adrahil Oct 2018 #44

You're doubling your chances, not your odds. JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #50

All what matters for a player is the chance to win Hav Oct 2018 #56

No JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #75

I think I'm starting to see where one part of the confusion comes from Hav Oct 2018 #82

I agree. JohnnyRingo Oct 2018 #86

Even if you bought 1000 tickets at those odds, Oneironaut Oct 2018 #61

I think he's confused because Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #65

It does. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #64

. Iggo Oct 2018 #12

IMO... if one single person is going to consistently play a lotto type game... roamer65 Oct 2018 #5

The odds at winning the Michigan Fantasy 5 is 1: 575,757 Kaleva Oct 2018 #32

how much does it cost ? JI7 Oct 2018 #35

1 dollar Kaleva Oct 2018 #78

About that.... GemDigger Oct 2018 #7

IMO you're paying for the thrill. And that's 100%. nolabear Oct 2018 #15

"The pleasure is to play. Makes no difference what you say." Iggo Oct 2018 #23

Nope. Never. The analysis is never any fun - Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #25

the only way to significantly improve your odds qazplm135 Oct 2018 #27

You'd have to have to wait for the pot to hit 584 million, Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #30

Right this is mainly a theoretical game. Adrahil Oct 2018 #34

Hardly anyone has done the math - Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #36

Isn't it $2 per ticket? grantcart Oct 2018 #84

No idea. I don't gamble. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #87

Correct but you undervalued the actual cost by 100% so it is even more grantcart Oct 2018 #88

It's at 1.6 billion now thus my comment qazplm135 Oct 2018 #41

I don't gamble, so I've got no clue what the prize is at. Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #60

You realize you can buy more than one ticket qazplm135 Oct 2018 #67

You and your team would have to buy about 850 tickets per second, from the moment after fishwax Oct 2018 #69

Given that you can buy more than one at a time qazplm135 Oct 2018 #70

at one second per number Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #72

You can buy more than one at a time, but in this case you would have to buy *specific* numbers fishwax Oct 2018 #74

Did you see my time calcualtion a few posts up? Ms. Toad Oct 2018 #71

I love this thread because of all the math geeks arguing probabilities... SidDithers Oct 2018 #46

THAT MontanaMama Oct 2018 #52

They are needed indeed Hav Oct 2018 #54

Yup.... Adrahil Oct 2018 #79

Nowhere near as epic as this one: muriel_volestrangler Oct 2018 #68

WOW Adrahil Oct 2018 #81

The odds of picking the exact sequence of cards after shuffling the deck twice lapfog_1 Oct 2018 #55

Place your bets on Democrats. Better odds. More Winners IADEMO2004 Oct 2018 #57

Your math is wrong... brooklynite Oct 2018 #73

+1 grantcart Oct 2018 #85

To quote Han Solo krispos42 Oct 2018 #80