Why Forecasts May Be Underestimating Democrats

[karynnj]

2. A 63 pickup would be BETTER than the 63 pickup in 2010

There are now 235 Republicans. We had 255 Democrats heading into the 2010 election. Therefore, if we gain 43 -- we end up in the mirror image of their place in 2010. They are ignoring that Obama's and the Democrats win in 2008 was FAR greater than Trump's and the Republicans in 2016.

Look back at things said after the 2016 election about 2018 -- and look where we are now. You will see bars lifted on what a "good" result is. Then, given the set of Senators up - those who won in 2012 (often after first winning in 2006) - include many Democrats in states we usually lose. The initial common wisdom is that we need to hold down the losses -- that would very likely come - to put us in position to win back the Senate in 2020. Likewise, it was said that the Republicans controlling a majority of state legislatures had so gerrymandered the Congressional districts, that it would be a daunting challenge to take back the house.

Now, the CW is we will win the House and will come close, but fail in the Senate -- possibly gaining one or two seats, but not the three needed to get the majority. That result would have looked far tooo optismistic back in mid 2017.