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Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

13. If Nate got 2016 "right" he should have been booted out of his profession

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 04:32 PM

Nov 2018

There is no way a compiler could have had Trump ahead and likely to win, electorally or otherwise.

It is astonishing that people don't grasp that.

Nate summarized 2016 almost to perfection in the late going...Hillary lead but fragile and not nearly as lopsided as Obama in 2012 despite similar national margins. Nate said there were not only a high number of undecideds but if there was a polling error it would likely be in the same direction in key states and could push Trump over the top if the polling error was in his favor.

I would be going nuts if I were Nate Silver. He got everything correct while nutcases like Sam Wang were asserting 99.9%. Yet somehow the conventional wisdom goofs prefer to believe Nate Silver flubbed 2016.

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Nate Silver has 7 in 8 chance Dems take the house [View all] OnlinePoker Nov 2018 OP

Actually, I think he only had Clinton at 60% cos dem Nov 2018 #1

71.4 to 28.6 OnlinePoker Nov 2018 #3

That is not a landslide. Blue_true Nov 2018 #7

Those are odds on a single race. OilemFirchen Nov 2018 #14

And to Silver's credit... that was 25 points less than any other poll analysts had it jcgoldie Nov 2018 #26

Those are probabilities Loki Liesmith Nov 2018 #30

If Nate gets this election wrong... dubyadiprecession Nov 2018 #2

He was not wrong in 2016! Nt USALiberal Nov 2018 #6

He doesn't run a polling firm. Adrahil Nov 2018 #9

If Nate got 2016 "right" he should have been booted out of his profession Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #13

James Comey is the one who flubbed 2016. (eom) StevieM Nov 2018 #22

I agree Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #25

And don't forget, dumbass won by essentially a fluke. cos dem Nov 2018 #34

Nate doesn't have a polling firm Loki Liesmith Nov 2018 #31

Well To Be Fair, She Did Have The Votes Me. Nov 2018 #4

I think the busters and other idiots tripped her up. Blue_true Nov 2018 #8

Also Me. Nov 2018 #11

"Corporate Whore" Small-Axe Nov 2018 #17

THIS Me. Nov 2018 #18

The fake email scandal could never have taken root to nearly that degree if it was used against StevieM Nov 2018 #21

So True Me. Nov 2018 #24

Comey was more important than any of those factors. He dominated that election from start to finish. StevieM Nov 2018 #20

I've been waiting for his forecast to improve with the Senate statistics. Baitball Blogger Nov 2018 #5

Not going to happen Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #28

Double post Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #29

No prob. Thanks for the info. Baitball Blogger Nov 2018 #33

I remember how many people road Nate Silver exboyfil Nov 2018 #10

I could give a fuck maxsolomon Nov 2018 #12

The fact you use the terrm "landslide" in reference to Silver's 2016 polling... Hassin Bin Sober Nov 2018 #15

It will be interesting to see how close 538 comes to the House generic margin Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #16

As far over that half way point as we can push it! crosinski Nov 2018 #19

CNN says a GOP source says Trump's racist immigration rhetoric may have cost them election JonLP24 Nov 2018 #23

Even Republicans thought they would lose in 2016 marylandblue Nov 2018 #27

Same with me Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #32