General Discussion

Renew Deal

(85,436 posts) Mon Nov 26, 2018, 11:26 PM Nov 2018

Rough ranking of the Top 31 potential Democratic 2020 Candidates [View all]

I took a list adapted from Wikipedia and gave them a rough ranking based on their likelihood to win the nomination. It's a pain to rank 31 and probably meaningless beyond the top 10. Who is in your top 10 of likely to win? This is not who you prefer, just who you think can win.

1 Joe Biden
2 Bernie Sanders
3 Beto O'Rourke
4 Elizabeth Warren
5 John Hickenlooper
6 Sherrod Brown
7 Kirsten Gillibrand
8 Kamala Harris
9 Hillary Clinton
10 Eric Holder
11 Terry McAuliffe
12 Michael Bloomberg
13 Jay Inslee
14 Cory Booker
15 Jeff Merkley
16 Andrew Cuomo
17 Bob Casey Jr.
18 Michael Bennet
19 Deval Patrick
20 Amy Klobuchar
21 Eric Swalwell
22 Julian Castro
23 Tom Steyer
24 John Delaney
25 John Kerry
26 Martin O'Malley
27 Tulsi Gabbard
28 Eric Garcetti
29 Tim Ryan
30 Richard Ojeda
31 Michael Avenatti

I'm happy to debate the likelihood of anyone. I think I might be too generous to Biden, Sanders, and Warren, but I think the list is fair.

Honorable mentions not on this list: Tester, Mitch Landrieu, Steve Bullock, Chris Murphy, Gavin Newsome

107 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Rough ranking of the Top 31 potential Democratic 2020 Candidates [View all] Renew Deal Nov 2018 OP

Ok maybe I missed it... jcgoldie Nov 2018 #1

He didn't rule it out in an interview Renew Deal Nov 2018 #2

He had said on Morning Joe that he was NOT doing anything to run in 2020 karynnj Nov 2018 #107

Who could win? Small-Axe Nov 2018 #3

I think Booker and Harris will have difficulty connecting for opposite reasons. Renew Deal Nov 2018 #5

Have you heard Harris speak? It's hard to believe one would consider her boring. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #9

There is a difference between committee hearings and campaign speeches. Renew Deal Nov 2018 #11

What you see in committee hearings is what you'd see on stage with Trump. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #36

It will be Biden with Booker or Harris as VP IMO. Small-Axe Nov 2018 #12

Definitely possible Renew Deal Nov 2018 #15

His age not an issue in the general vs Trump. Small-Axe Nov 2018 #25

He's also the candidate that Trump fears the most Renew Deal Nov 2018 #31

Biden would shatter Trump's record for oldest person to take office. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #37

Like I said, age isn't a negative factor in Biden vs Trump. Small-Axe Nov 2018 #44

He's quite a bit older than Trump, and his Thomas-Hill past wouldn't be a non-issue. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #48

Biden could do the Polk Fatemah2774 Nov 2018 #78

Amy would also be great on the Supreme Court elfin Nov 2018 #50

32. Gavin newsome Chipper Chat Nov 2018 #4

Oprah and Affleck shouldn't be on the list at all. The Velveteen Ocelot Nov 2018 #26

Ben Affleck? crazycatlady Nov 2018 #77

Worked for donald trump Chipper Chat Nov 2018 #82

Just no crazycatlady Nov 2018 #83

Plus he has major alcohol and gambling addiction problems that he still hasn't smirkymonkey Nov 2018 #85

Amy Klobuchar is trading 4th on Predictit Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #6

Is she likely to run? Renew Deal Nov 2018 #8

Same site says 66% yes Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #103

impressive but... jcgoldie Nov 2018 #14

Trading at 12 cents or 2 cents is not exactly similar Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #104

I'm afraid Klobuchar is too meek. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #17

I don't think meek is the right word at all for her jcgoldie Nov 2018 #20

Meek and genuine aren't opposites. I agree she's genuine. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #40

I think Kamala Harris has a nasty side that will work against her Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #105

Hickenlooper too high, Booker too low marylandblue Nov 2018 #7

I think it's counter intuitive with both of them Renew Deal Nov 2018 #10

1, 2, & 3 make little sense to me. Bernie and Joe are great but their time has passed ... Persondem Nov 2018 #13

Avenatti hasn't "ruled it out" Renew Deal Nov 2018 #18

Snowball's chance in Hell. The Velveteen Ocelot Nov 2018 #28

I had liked Jay Inslee originally but now I am super excited about Tom Steyer. StevieM Nov 2018 #33

another rich guy with no government experience who bought his name recognition and TeamPooka Nov 2018 #42

Now hold on there ProudLib72 Nov 2018 #56

He put his name in all those Impeach Trump ads he bought to build his name rec TeamPooka Nov 2018 #58

I completely agree that he should not be a consideration ProudLib72 Nov 2018 #60

I would have to seen the numbers to even kinda take this as informative. A simple list doesn't do it Wintryjade Nov 2018 #16

There aren't any numbers Renew Deal Nov 2018 #21

Ok. So you cam up with the list. I am sorry I didn't understand. That makes a difference. Thanks. Wintryjade Nov 2018 #27

That list seems to be based on name recognition more so than odds of winning the nomination. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #19

It for the most part is Renew Deal Nov 2018 #22

Certainly not if Bernie decides to run. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #63

I would say better than most JonLP24 Nov 2018 #24

See post #176. Sanders had a lot going for him in 2016, and that race was over by Super Tuesday. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #45

He had a lot less name recognition JonLP24 Nov 2018 #47

He built up quite a bit of name recognition by the time Iowa voted. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #51

His support is higher among non whites than whites JonLP24 Nov 2018 #53

Again, it's not about being liked. It's about being viable. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #57

He has a great record on civil rights JonLP24 Nov 2018 #61

Sanders contributed to the absurd and racist "white working class/economic anxiety" narrative... Garrett78 Nov 2018 #67

Obama never said those who didn't vote me are racist JonLP24 Nov 2018 #68

++ JHan Nov 2018 #79

I think Harris has a better shot than Brown, Gillibrand, Beto JonLP24 Nov 2018 #23

Except for Warren, I agree. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #64

What a great bunch of humans. Why put some as "Honorable mentions"?!1 UTUSN Nov 2018 #29

The honorable mentions were not on the Wikipedia "expressed interest" list Renew Deal Nov 2018 #32

Ugh for Andrew!1 I'd rather Chris. UTUSN Nov 2018 #35

Agreed Me. Nov 2018 #52

My List Horizens Nov 2018 #30

Tom Steyer all the way. (eom) StevieM Nov 2018 #34

Brown/Beto world wide wally Nov 2018 #38

Bookmarked for future reference. Lisa0825 Nov 2018 #39

hahahaha I love a good joke post. TeamPooka Nov 2018 #41

I would follow Stacey Abrams into battle. violetpastille Nov 2018 #43

She's very impressive. I hope she either runs for federal office or challenges Kemp again. Garrett78 Nov 2018 #46

Me too... Stacey's another one who has the "it" factor. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #95

She has no legislative experience at the federal level though. John Fante Nov 2018 #102

Here are my favorite flavors: OilemFirchen Nov 2018 #49

Not bad, but I think Pure Vanilla should be ahead of Vanilla Spice and smirkymonkey Nov 2018 #88

Gillum should be on that list. lpbk2713 Nov 2018 #54

I personally support Beto...... chillfactor Nov 2018 #55

Biden and Sanders should not be that high. BlueStater Nov 2018 #59

Agreed Freddie Nov 2018 #71

Surprised to see Michael Avenatti ranked dead last... he'll definitely move up quickly once his InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #62

There is no scenario where he wins a state in the primary Renew Deal Nov 2018 #74

If I was a gambler, I'd be tempted to bet you on that. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #92

How well do you think he will do? Renew Deal Nov 2018 #97

Just basin my opinion on the way Avenatti throws punches...the Dotard would get a verbal ass-whoopin InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #99

Beto-Amy SoCalDem Nov 2018 #65

Same here Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #106

Sanders is not a Democrat. Stinky The Clown Nov 2018 #66

+1 Bleacher Creature Nov 2018 #70

Thanks for the reminder... I had forgotten. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #100

Biden/Beto or Biden/Booker..is who I think has the best chance at this moment. It's a popularity UniteFightBack Nov 2018 #69

This may sound superficial flotsam Nov 2018 #72

One term pledges are a bad idea Renew Deal Nov 2018 #73

Does anybody in America even know who John Hickenlooper is besides residents of Colorado? octoberlib Nov 2018 #75

Did anyone know Bill Clinton? Renew Deal Nov 2018 #76

Whomever has the best platform/ policies will(should) win... disillusioned73 Nov 2018 #80

Adam Schiff? lapfog_1 Nov 2018 #81

None have expressed interest in running Renew Deal Nov 2018 #84

I think Gillebreand is not in the top 10 Adrahil Nov 2018 #86

WaPo, Politico, and PredictIt all have her there Renew Deal Nov 2018 #87

I think they are wrong. I think she has no chance. Adrahil Nov 2018 #89

She was the most popular statewide elected official in 2018 Renew Deal Nov 2018 #90

Okay. We shall see (maybe). I think she craters early. Adrahil Nov 2018 #91

Several of the people on the list Trumpocalypse Nov 2018 #96

It will depend on the competition Renew Deal Nov 2018 #98

I agree. Surprised Hillary made the top 10 (9th)...but, then again, she did make it to #1 InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #94

I don't think HRC will run. Eric J in MN Nov 2018 #93

I put Adam Schiff at the top and .. ananda Nov 2018 #101