General Discussion

John Fante

(3,479 posts)

90. "We faced the same type of incumbency disadvantage in 2004."

Tue Nov 27, 2018, 02:36 AM

Nov 2018

No, we did not. Bush was a wartime incumbent with approval ratings in the 50% range, and they got as high as 90% after 9/11. Trump has yet to sniff GWB's post-9/11 low point.. Iraq was divisive, but Americans didn't completely turn on that war until 2005-2006. Even with all that in Dubya's favor, he was pushed to the brink by Kerry.

Trump would need the economy to stay this hot to have any hope of winning re-election. It's the only thing propping him up at that point.

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

176 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

My major concern about the Beto for President push [View all] EffieBlack Nov 2018 OP

I agree, thank you. saidsimplesimon Nov 2018 #1

Beto is authentic. He talks about real problems and solutions. There applegrove Nov 2018 #2

I agree JonLP24 Nov 2018 #4

Beto does seem to have the "it" factor. InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2018 #101

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum are authentic. They talked about real problems and solutions. mcar Nov 2018 #132

They did not get millions to watch their response to town hall questions. People applegrove Nov 2018 #145

Um - people from around the country watched and we're inspired and excited by their campaigns EffieBlack Nov 2018 #148

I never said they were bad candidates. They were great candidates. Organically applegrove Nov 2018 #150

Just an FYI. applegrove Nov 2018 #158

I like Beto...very impressive, but he has to win first. Demsrule86 Nov 2018 #160

Sometimes you have to strike when the iron gets hot. Someone like applegrove Nov 2018 #162

This is not Canada. And I don't think Beto is our guy for 20...maybe in the future. Demsrule86 Nov 2018 #163

There are no announced candidates other than John Delaney Renew Deal Nov 2018 #3

Re: Beto - so far, I like what I see. TheCowsCameHome Nov 2018 #5

Didnt they say the same thing about President Obama back in 2007? nt jezebel321 Nov 2018 #6

Yes. Yes they did. Freethinker65 Nov 2018 #8

Former Obama aide: O'Rourke inspired more enthusiasm than Obama in 2004 JonLP24 Nov 2018 #10

Pfeiffer helps make my point EffieBlack Nov 2018 #17

I think the same argument can be made about Obama in 2007 and '08. All people talked about... In It to Win It Nov 2018 #51

That's not true EffieBlack Nov 2018 #62

That's not true Bradshaw3 Nov 2018 #78

Exactly Separation Nov 2018 #171

What you saw is different from what I saw. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #83

Obama served in the Illinois Senate for 7 years before he became a US Senator. LeftInTX Nov 2018 #74

I understand that but he stll got the criticism. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #76

Simply because a candidate has "crowds" and "enthusiasm" doesn't mean he doesn't have substance grantcart Nov 2018 #156

I find this difficult to understand grantcart Nov 2018 #155

Yes, but Obama won his Senate seat and was seen as a winner. Big difference. TeamPooka Nov 2018 #59

Obama wasn't running for a senate seat in a blood red state BannonsLiver Nov 2018 #131

Beto O'Rourke wasn't a black man running for statewide office held by only one other POC in history EffieBlack Nov 2018 #138

The big difference is that Obama won... Blanks Nov 2018 #151

Cornell West said he, Obama, wasn't black enough. sheshe2 Nov 2018 #60

I remember Howard Dean showing enthusiasm. It took him out Hoyt Nov 2018 #7

I think you mean Howard Dean oberliner Nov 2018 #9

Yes, thanks. Hoyt Nov 2018 #13

He was such a great candidate oberliner Nov 2018 #15

Agree. Would loved to see him have tackled healthcare, post-9/11 wars, deficit, etc. Hoyt Nov 2018 #31

Plus he promised to pass a law reuniting the Fugees. Dr Hobbitstein Nov 2018 #36

Beto lost to an incumbent senator in RED Texas. John Fante Nov 2018 #82

Agree, but there are lots of red, or could be red, states like Texas. Hoyt Nov 2018 #84

It's like comparing the LeBron led Cavaliers for falling to the Warriors. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2018 #111

It was a great effort. But it doesn't prove he's ready to run for and be President EffieBlack Nov 2018 #113

I think your concern is fair, but he does have 6 years in the House. aikoaiko Nov 2018 #11

It's been what? 150 years since we sent a Congressman to the White House without winning a state TeamPooka Nov 2018 #64

I'm not in love with Beto, but I do recognize he is a special US Rep aikoaiko Nov 2018 #77

There's always one around exciting the base, Gephardt, Kucinich, now Beto. I see him as a VP or more TeamPooka Nov 2018 #80

I think he's great and has a lot of potential. EffieBlack Nov 2018 #85

We have reality TV game show host in the White House. John Fante Nov 2018 #89

Ignore the choices the american people have made historically for a century and half TeamPooka Nov 2018 #93

63 million Americans ignored them quite easily when they voted for John Fante Nov 2018 #141

I was just gonna say that John, We have a fucking reality show person now........ Old Vet Nov 2018 #110

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum almost won in red states EffieBlack Nov 2018 #112

Just as I figured. This isn't about Beto's experience at all. John Fante Nov 2018 #143

Drat! You GOT me! EffieBlack Nov 2018 #144

You're not hard to figure out at all. John Fante Nov 2018 #146

Yes, it must be a terrible ordeal for you EffieBlack Nov 2018 #147

Wow, Are you fucking kidding me. Seems you throw that bullshit out real quick........ Old Vet Nov 2018 #164

Lol, you must be new here. John Fante Nov 2018 #165

Yeah, Ive only been here 14 years, Fairly new......... Old Vet Nov 2018 #168

I would like to know why POC who came very very close are not afforded the deep admiration of Demsrule86 Nov 2018 #161

That would make anyone from red states treestar Nov 2018 #100

Bingo! octoberlib Nov 2018 #12

Did you have similar concerns about Obama? oberliner Nov 2018 #14

No. EffieBlack Nov 2018 #16

Why not? oberliner Nov 2018 #23

2 years in the us senate nt msongs Nov 2018 #27

I don't that qualifies Barack Obama any more than Beto's 6 years in the House. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #28

+ A successful Senate election, president Harvard Law Review, 2 thoughtful books EffieBlack Nov 2018 #33

And a Constitutional Law professor. Small-Axe Nov 2018 #41

Obama had charisma and was more cerebral. The word that' MaryMagdaline Nov 2018 #53

"+ Successful Senate election, president Harvard Law Review, Hortensis Nov 2018 #118

He had me here. Right here. sheshe2 Nov 2018 #67

Yep. Me too. honest.abe Nov 2018 #135

... sheshe2 Nov 2018 #136

Thank you for sharing those insights oberliner Nov 2018 #96

Whatever. EffieBlack Nov 2018 #108

I appreciate that oberliner Nov 2018 #117

It's still early, and the field of candidates will likely be a bit of a sideshow. VOX Nov 2018 #18

While he has many qualities mokawanis Nov 2018 #19

We're totally on the same page EffieBlack Nov 2018 #20

"Steady as she goes" I think is appropriate here. libdem4life Nov 2018 #66

And to add: then have somebody dig up something really embarrassing about him/her Proud Liberal Dem Nov 2018 #120

While I completely agree with you on Beto, I think many on DU want to FSogol Nov 2018 #21

Excellent post! EffieBlack Nov 2018 #22

Thanks. n/t FSogol Nov 2018 #24

I don't care about falling in love... jcgoldie Nov 2018 #39

Good points JonLP24 Nov 2018 #48

Agreed! 100% In It to Win It Nov 2018 #61

I think a healthy skepticism is okay. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #25

I am a Texan and a Beto fan, but I have similar concerns. Lisa0825 Nov 2018 #26

I think if he runs for Cornyn's seat in 2020, I'm not convinced he will win. It will be... In It to Win It Nov 2018 #30

:) For a future presidency, I'd like to see Beto serve Hortensis Nov 2018 #97

I am concerned about losing to Donald Trump Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #29

Agreed about losing to Tump... In It to Win It Nov 2018 #32

Why specifically, based on what you know about him right now, do you think he could beat Trump? EffieBlack Nov 2018 #35

Even though people only seem to talk about the enthusiam and crowd sizes... In It to Win It Nov 2018 #40

"Enthusiasm," "supposedly distinguishing himself from Democrats who aren't running EffieBlack Nov 2018 #43

Ok. Under the current circumstances, who do you think will win against Trump? In It to Win It Nov 2018 #50

I don't know - because it's way too early in the process to annoit a savior EffieBlack Nov 2018 #57

I was never convinced that Beto was gonna win Texas. In It to Win It Nov 2018 #75

Unless he can win in Texas, assuming he can win elsewhere is all speculation. EffieBlack Nov 2018 #81

That's true In It to Win It Nov 2018 #86

unlikely voters jcgoldie Nov 2018 #102

To be honest, I don't know if Beto has the depth and nuance either In It to Win It Nov 2018 #105

I agree JonLP24 Nov 2018 #37

"We faced the same type of incumbency disadvantage in 2004." John Fante Nov 2018 #90

He needs experience first. He'd make a great VP. Initech Nov 2018 #34

What Beto said about anthem kneeling impressed the hell out of me, but... Garrett78 Nov 2018 #38

Beto has more experience on a national stage than Harris does Bradshaw3 Nov 2018 #87

And? Garrett78 Nov 2018 #88

Thanks and agreed. nt babylonsister Nov 2018 #42

I want someone who is inspiring AND knows how to work the DC machine tinrobot Nov 2018 #44

I got to see Beto in action a couple of times Gothmog Nov 2018 #45

did we rewind the tape back to 2006 Hamlette Nov 2018 #46

See my post upthread explaining why it's very different. EffieBlack Nov 2018 #49

Bingo MaryMagdaline Nov 2018 #56

Beto O'Rourke can run for US Senate in 2020 against John Cornyn instead. NT Eric J in MN Nov 2018 #47

Completely fair. JDC Nov 2018 #52

I'm gonna solve your little dilemma here....it's Beto for VP. nt UniteFightBack Nov 2018 #54

He's run a Cong. office. And Obama was in the same position in 2006. EndGOPPropaganda Nov 2018 #55

Obama had won a statewide race and ran a Senate office - much EffieBlack Nov 2018 #63

You're overstating the difference. John Fante Nov 2018 #92

You think that mountain was easy to scale for Obama? EffieBlack Nov 2018 #106

It isn't grading on a curve to recognize huge differences in demographics... jcgoldie Nov 2018 #114

Agreed 100% In It to Win It Nov 2018 #116

Agreed! In It to Win It Nov 2018 #115

Comparing Beto to Obama is apples and oranges in many respects EffieBlack Nov 2018 #119

I have a bunch of work to do to acquaint myself with 36? candidates Jarqui Nov 2018 #58

Beto has 3 out of 4 characteristics necessary for a Democrat to win andym Nov 2018 #65

What do you think about Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum EffieBlack Nov 2018 #68

Both Abrams and Gillum would be outstanding candidates andym Nov 2018 #70

:-) EffieBlack Nov 2018 #71

If Beto is in a tier below Obama based on Obama's two years John Fante Nov 2018 #166

No EffieBlack Nov 2018 #167

Most recent presidents... except Barack Obama. John Fante Nov 2018 #174

Gillum has run a large city EffieBlack Nov 2018 #175

You could have said the same for Obama early on but it worked out beautifully. nt Quixote1818 Nov 2018 #69

Actually, I couldn't EffieBlack Nov 2018 #73

I agree LeftInTX Nov 2018 #72

I'm with you, Effie. LuvLoogie Nov 2018 #79

Okay, let's go back a few years and do a little thought experiment. GoneOffShore Nov 2018 #91

I donated to Beto even though I'm from MA but did not know at the time that he voted for Tim Ryan seaglass Nov 2018 #94

You're trying to think logically in a world that is totally upside down. Vinca Nov 2018 #95

I pretty much agree with you Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2018 #125

People putting this guy in the same league as Barack Obama are funny as shit. LexVegas Nov 2018 #98

The train is largely lost on this I think dsc Nov 2018 #99

I agree with OP... Trueblue Texan Nov 2018 #103

IMHO he would make a better VP this time around. sellitman Nov 2018 #104

I thought the same about Obama Marrah_Goodman Nov 2018 #107

Absolutely Agree! peggysue2 Nov 2018 #109

Beto highlights the need of the Left for an exciting and charismatic candidate. elocs Nov 2018 #121

Me and you both ... EffieBlack Nov 2018 #124

Is it possible to get any worse than Trump in terms of ability to govern? n/t Zing Zing Zingbah Nov 2018 #122

That's not the standard I'm going for ... EffieBlack Nov 2018 #123

Beating Trump is priority number 1. Adrahil Nov 2018 #126

It's a long way off and anything can develop EffieBlack Nov 2018 #127

Why? Adrahil Nov 2018 #128

Biden had more experience but lost the primaries. EffieBlack Nov 2018 #129

We'll disagree... Adrahil Nov 2018 #130

It's almost as if people think rules still apply . . . Mr. Quackers Nov 2018 #133

What push? BannonsLiver Nov 2018 #134

I wonder how much of the attention on the national level was more anti-Cruz hype kcr Nov 2018 #137

Yes.. Texas attracts national attention because of its size (electoral votes) LeftInTX Nov 2018 #153

He might not have the national infrastructure JustAnotherGen Nov 2018 #139

The same was said about Barack Obama. Turned out pretty well. apnu Nov 2018 #140

Beto O'Rourke isn't Barack Obama EffieBlack Nov 2018 #142

I agree with Effie Black LeftInTX Nov 2018 #152

I'm going to give the new congress a few months... LanternWaste Nov 2018 #149

I think you need to take a closer look at Beto grantcart Nov 2018 #154

Well thought out post........... Old Vet Nov 2018 #169

I appreciate your post and agree it's well-thought out, but please be careful EffieBlack Nov 2018 #173

Your concern is noted. n/t X_Digger Nov 2018 #157

Looking for a savior...wrong approach. Get someone who can work in Washington like Demsrule86 Nov 2018 #159

I agree and I felt the exact same thing about Obama. nt m-lekktor Nov 2018 #170

I think Gillum would be a better choice, disillusioned73 Nov 2018 #172

The emotional voter searching for the Ubermensch is not ready for Democracy. delisen Nov 2018 #176