General Discussion

Gothmog

(179,495 posts)

133. Because I live in the real world and I also know how studies like the one cited in OP are prepared

Sun Dec 2, 2018, 02:12 PM

Dec 2018

I used to be a college debater and I know now studies such as the one cited in the OP prepared. It seems that there are some fairly aggressive assumptions used in this study and I doubt that these savings will be realized in the real world. There is a reason why sanders has totally and utterly failed to get his magical single payer plan adopted in the real world which is that policy makers cannot us magical or theoretical savings to pay for a program.

Prof. Krugman and I treat the so-called societal savings the same way that we both treat the magical economic growth that is supposed to be generated from GOP tax cuts. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/01/19/weakened-at-bernies/?_r=0

On health care: leave on one side the virtual impossibility of achieving single-payer. Beyond the politics, the Sanders “plan” isn’t just lacking in detail; as Ezra Klein notes, it both promises more comprehensive coverage than Medicare or for that matter single-payer systems in other countries, and assumes huge cost savings that are at best unlikely given that kind of generosity. This lets Sanders claim that he could make it work with much lower middle-class taxes than would probably be needed in practice.

To be harsh but accurate: the Sanders health plan looks a little bit like a standard Republican tax-cut plan, which relies on fantasies about huge supply-side effects to make the numbers supposedly add up. Only a little bit: after all, this is a plan seeking to provide health care, not lavish windfalls on the rich — and single-payer really does save money, whereas there’s no evidence that tax cuts deliver growth. Still, it’s not the kind of brave truth-telling the Sanders campaign pitch might have led you to expect.

GOP tax cuts are not magical and never pay for themselves.

If you want this study to be taken seriously in the real world, then sanders needs to stop selling books and try to get his magical plan adopted in Vermont. We need proof in the real world

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New Study Shows Medicare for All Would Save US $5.1 Trillion Over Ten Years [View all] guillaumeb Dec 2018 OP

Kick dalton99a Dec 2018 #1

Just a question...... essaynnc Dec 2018 #2

How many people made buggy whips? guillaumeb Dec 2018 #3

+1 red dog 1 Dec 2018 #36

Those jobs were not erased overnight, or even over 15 years. MFA says 8 years. ehrnst Dec 2018 #177

Many jobs were erased nearly overnight. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #182

Can you provide some citations on those claims? ehrnst Dec 2018 #184

I guess not... ehrnst Dec 2018 #185

I feel no need to write a book on this topic. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #186

Right. Citing your sources is "writing a book." ehrnst Dec 2018 #187

By that logic, European healthcare systems should employ lots of insurance company workers and Doodley Dec 2018 #202

broken window Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2018 #4

Thanks for that link red dog 1 Dec 2018 #37

welcome; health insurance is not a net benefit Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2018 #44

Most single payer plans include taking care of people currently working in the Poiuyt Dec 2018 #5

You might want to take a look at PNHP's site. area51 Dec 2018 #6

Beat me to it!! Roland99 Dec 2018 #22

They Use Some of the Same Examples I Was Thinking of Leith Dec 2018 #38

They are already being phased out. KentuckyWoman Dec 2018 #9

A great number of people would likely be absorbed in Medicare Takket Dec 2018 #15

Just an answer quakerboy Dec 2018 #28

Don't know and don't care. Politicub Dec 2018 #30

This type of nonsense is now just fodder for ignore. I am so over small minded short sighted spew tymorial Dec 2018 #105

Private insurance may still be needed. Lonestarblue Dec 2018 #31

Yup Leith Dec 2018 #39

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2018 #45

Germany has a system of non-profit/profit health care system... cynatnite Dec 2018 #107

Someone still needs to administer those benefits.... Heartstrings Dec 2018 #126

It should open up more jobs in actual healthcare treestar Dec 2018 #144

That is an economic consequence that has not been addressed in M4A. (tn) ehrnst Dec 2018 #178

I remember when health insurance wasn't even a thing KentuckyWoman Dec 2018 #7

There is an enormous amount of profit to be made in the industry. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #8

we pay for an industry designed to deny Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2018 #11

Exactly. The Insurance companies make their money by denying care. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #13

That used to be true but the gross margin is now capped at 20% grantcart Dec 2018 #34

So ONLY 20% is diverted. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #59

That isn't the issue of the sub thread grantcart Dec 2018 #71

Insurance companies can declare that certain things are costs. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #73

Its not 3% and its not 20% and insurance companies cannot "declare certain things are costs" grantcart Dec 2018 #111

+++ JHan Dec 2018 #125

Amazing Reply Me. Dec 2018 #127

This message was self-deleted by its author grantcart Dec 2018 #131

Thank you grantcart Dec 2018 #138

Great post Gothmog Dec 2018 #200

I've noticed along with co pays and deductibles I am being charged with "facility fees" Autumn Dec 2018 #129

And no one challenges these unexplained costs. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #130

if the insurance company is only gonna get 79% questionseverything Dec 2018 #114

You have it reversed. If they don't spend the 80% then they have to rebate the difference grantcart Dec 2018 #122

Oh, BS! DiverDave Dec 2018 #136

As reply #122 explains Senator Al Franken crafted the perfect solution grantcart Dec 2018 #142

That's simply not true. George II Dec 2018 #132

To be fair it used to be true before the ACA. grantcart Dec 2018 #143

That is no longer the case. Under the ACA the medical loss ratio is capped grantcart Dec 2018 #32

we pay for all health care for everyone + 20% + cost of industry Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2018 #42

ACA margins are NOT based on cost plus margins. grantcart Dec 2018 #52

ACA is a step in the right direction Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2018 #55

Not arguing that we shouldn't transition to single payer but the issue grantcart Dec 2018 #58

If your income is low enough there is a program to pay for that 135 Marrah_Goodman Dec 2018 #67

I don't qualify for that but do qualify for $ 1230 monthly subsidy with ACA. grantcart Dec 2018 #72

Marrah, do you have a link to more info on this. sheshe2 Dec 2018 #82

It's called "Extra Help" Marrah_Goodman Dec 2018 #83

Thank you. sheshe2 Dec 2018 #84

CEOs making 10's of thousands per day. YAY! SammyWinstonJack Dec 2018 #47

possibly worse, Dr. Denial Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2018 #48

Thank you for understanding. KentuckyWoman Dec 2018 #51

I felt that your meaning was clear. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #60

How often do those things happen? quakerboy Dec 2018 #29

And then there are people like me. Stonepounder Dec 2018 #33

I didn't mean to blame the patient... only that for profit preys on that sort of thing KentuckyWoman Dec 2018 #50

Supported Medicare-for-All - actually MediCAID-for-All - since about 1980, as right thing to do. Hoyt Dec 2018 #10

There is also much waste in the pharmaceutical industry. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #14

No question, but that is built into the 14%. The study assumes the system is transformed. Hoyt Dec 2018 #16

The military budget, or more properly the war budget, guillaumeb Dec 2018 #19

I'm for it! ananda Dec 2018 #12

We will slowly get there for this reason. shockey80 Dec 2018 #17

Unfortunately this study is an oversimplification. Many who read these studies.... George II Dec 2018 #18

Medicare advantage is already there. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #20

That is correct. Medicare Advantage is VERY affordable (my wife and I each pay $25/month), but.... George II Dec 2018 #21

Agreed that Medicare also needs to be fixed. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #23

The only fixing I see that Medicare needs is to provide full coverage, not just 80%, but... George II Dec 2018 #27

With Medicare Advantage you are somewhat limited in your choice of hostalover Dec 2018 #49

"They are much more efficient than the US Government would be" dpibel Dec 2018 #56

Example: George II Dec 2018 #70

That article doesn't mention Medicare once, and the Pentagon is rather infamous... Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #87

The government is the government, regardless of the department or branch. George II Dec 2018 #88

So in your view, the government is incapable of running things efficiently? Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #89

There is no "evidence as applied to Medicare" because a big part of Medicare is administered.... George II Dec 2018 #92

Ok, what about equivalent systems, such as the VA or Medicaid? Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #94

I have further questions, is this problem unique to the United States? Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #90

I do not think what you think I think dpibel Dec 2018 #99

It was only a matter of time Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2018 #155

The study proposes a 3.75% national sales tax as a possible way to fund the $1,000,000,000,000 lapucelle Dec 2018 #112

Sales taxes are the most regressive taxes ever conceived.... George II Dec 2018 #113

guess you missed the exemptions part questionseverything Dec 2018 #117

What I missed was the specifics of the vague plan. So, is there anything proposed on how.... George II Dec 2018 #120

That's ridiculous. The sales tax is collected (or not) by the merchants. Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2018 #148

VATs are very regressive Gothmog Dec 2018 #149

It may also help to read we were discussing a sales tax. Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2018 #152

You do know that a VAT is a sales tax Gothmog Dec 2018 #153

Bizarre. A sales tax is a sales tax and a value added tax is a value added tax. Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2018 #154

That is so cute and adorable Gothmog Dec 2018 #156

Lol. Your own link contradicts how and why you jumped in to this silly subthread asserting.... Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2018 #157

LOL-they are both taxes on consumption and both taxes are eventually paid for by the consumer Gothmog Dec 2018 #158

And the regressive nature of the tax is that it's based on consumption (however one may define that) George II Dec 2018 #161

The Fair Tax proposal attempts to lessen the regressive effect with pre-bates Gothmog Dec 2018 #162

A sales tax has been determined to be the most regressive tax possible, except for a poll tax.... George II Dec 2018 #159

Using a very regressive tax to pay for this plan is a bad idea Gothmog Dec 2018 #163

This plan has no chance of passing in the real world Gothmog Dec 2018 #166

I don't know where you are, but in the four states in which I've lived (NY, NJ, OH, CT).... George II Dec 2018 #160

We have one percentage for the state tax but there are different tax rates for local taxes Gothmog Dec 2018 #172

That is a very regressive form of taxation Gothmog Dec 2018 #116

Actually based on studies done for the ACA, it costs 13% less for the govt to do cbdo2007 Dec 2018 #167

You are using facts concerning a study that is based on very aggresive assumptions Gothmog Dec 2018 #175

That's why the elite in general don't like it sandensea Dec 2018 #24

Cui bono. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #25

+1 sandensea Dec 2018 #26

Yeah but then it wouldn't keep people trapped working for their employers linuxuser3 Dec 2018 #35

What does Medicare for All have to do with Native American Genocide or Slavery? red dog 1 Dec 2018 #40

Welcome to DU. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #61

I worked for almost 50 years, never had a problem changing jobs because I was trapped by healthcare. George II Dec 2018 #145

Single Payer Is Good For Business Progressive2020 Dec 2018 #41

Yes, it is. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #62

True Progressive2020 Dec 2018 #78

Agreed. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #79

if we all had medicare wouldn't the cost of workmans comp questionseverything Dec 2018 #119

K&R, thanks for posting red dog 1 Dec 2018 #43

While I support medicare for all there are significant errors on the percentage grantcart Dec 2018 #46

Societal savings are not tax revenues Gothmog Dec 2018 #53

Taxes will go higher, guillaumeb Dec 2018 #63

Then why has sanders failed utterly to get his magic plan adopted in Vermont? Gothmog Dec 2018 #74

Nothing is perfect. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #75

Then sanders should stop selling his book and go work to get this plan adopted in vermont Gothmog Dec 2018 #118

Guilaumeb, Sanders did not have a workable plan Hortensis Dec 2018 #176

In my view, Sanders is helping to frame the issue. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #181

I understand some of the savings will come from funeral costs of those with inadequate... George II Dec 2018 #69

All the comparisons are with countries that have a fraction of the population of the US.... George II Dec 2018 #81

That actually makes no sense, any insurance system is more cost effective... Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #86

Yep. That's the most asinine argument against single payer that gets thrown around. Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2018 #150

I have yet to see how it is paid for. wasupaloopa Dec 2018 #54

What I would like to see is the House dems ooky Dec 2018 #57

Maybe a progressive think tank can do it. wasupaloopa Dec 2018 #65

Those who wrote the plan and are pushing it should explain how it works and is paid for.... George II Dec 2018 #85

OK, let's strengthen the ACA then... Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #96

The biggest fault in the ACA is allowing individual states to implement it differently.... George II Dec 2018 #98

True, but your going to have to abolish Federalism or find a way to Federalize the ACA... Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #102

i swear no one did the math on the aca before passing it questionseverything Dec 2018 #121

One of the issues is I think it still allows for age based discrimination... Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #123

true single pyer would be better but medicare for all is a decent starting place questionseverything Dec 2018 #124

Strengthening an already existing system rather than start from scratch is common sense to me. betsuni Dec 2018 #103

Its a good, marketable term, also, the ACA, due to the structure... Humanist_Activist Dec 2018 #109

I don't disagree with strengthening the ACA as an intermediate step. ooky Dec 2018 #104

Your taxes would increase. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #64

Yes. It would cost a business $11k per employee per year. They pay that or more now. KWR65 Dec 2018 #66

And increased taxes should be less than Americans currently pay for insurance premiums. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #68

If the savings are so clear, then why have this plan not been put into effect? Gothmog Dec 2018 #76

Bribes from the Insurance industry to politicians. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #77

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winna!! nt Ferrets are Cool Dec 2018 #108

Unfortunately every time it gets down to specifically stating how the plan would be paid for and.... George II Dec 2018 #95

Only if the hypothetical or theoritical savings are real Gothmog Dec 2018 #115

Why do you keep using the word magical? guillaumeb Dec 2018 #128

Because I live in the real world and I also know how studies like the one cited in OP are prepared Gothmog Dec 2018 #133

I know it's two years old, but the third paragraph in your link is very interesting. George II Dec 2018 #135

Agreed Gothmog Dec 2018 #137

That statistic is false dansolo Dec 2018 #165

It is a single payer system in which each province guillaumeb Dec 2018 #168

K&R lilactime Dec 2018 #80

Yep. Thanks for posting! BeckyDem Dec 2018 #91

Thank you. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #93

In solidarity! BeckyDem Dec 2018 #97

I would recommend making this source part of a separate post. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #100

Please, feel free to use the source in any way you prefer. BeckyDem Dec 2018 #101

Hell, you can't even get them to do something about climate change... Ferrets are Cool Dec 2018 #106

Voters made a difference a few weeks ago. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #110

Voters voted to protect the ACA and the coverage of pre-existing conditions Gothmog Dec 2018 #134

They voted for an imperfect something guillaumeb Dec 2018 #139

The voters did NOT vote for sanders magical single payer plan Gothmog Dec 2018 #140

Sounds like a meme. "Magical single payer". But it ignores reality. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #141

Single payer was not on the ballot but protection of pre-existing coverage was an important issue Gothmog Dec 2018 #146

This study is really sad and shows why single payer has been adopted Gothmog Dec 2018 #147

. Achilleaze Dec 2018 #151

K&R.. disillusioned73 Dec 2018 #164

The only way forward that is not just left wing debate on sites like DU GulfCoast66 Dec 2018 #169

The ACA is, at best, a temporary fix. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #170

The French system has non profit insurance companies people can choose from GulfCoast66 Dec 2018 #171

Or (in terms Republicans can understand) the cost of 3 wars Bucky Dec 2018 #173

War is very profitable, guillaumeb Dec 2018 #183

This plan will require 60 votes in the Senate Gothmog Dec 2018 #174

And then, how does the Democratic Party protect it when not in power? ehrnst Dec 2018 #179

His isn't the only proposal for reform using public programs ehrnst Dec 2018 #180

The sanders plan relies on tax increases to pay for it Gothmog Dec 2018 #188

Which will effectively reduce insurance premiums guillaumeb Dec 2018 #189

Only if the aggressive assumptions in the study are correct Gothmog Dec 2018 #190

So only in the US, as opoosed to every other country with single payer, guillaumeb Dec 2018 #191

sanders has cited the study cited in OP to justify his magical plan and has failed to get it adopted Gothmog Dec 2018 #192

Don't forget the overall savings of funeral costs for people who have inadequate healthcare!! George II Dec 2018 #193

Nicely done. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #194

... George II Dec 2018 #195

The Medicare-for-all paradox Gothmog Dec 2018 #196

Most people might be reasonably happy, guillaumeb Dec 2018 #197

I live in the real world Gothmog Dec 2018 #198

Your observation is correct, as far as it goes. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #199

There are very valid reasons why President Obama got the ACA adopted Gothmog Dec 2018 #201

Getting to the ACA was very difficult too and also started unpopularly, and the very same complaint JCanete Dec 2018 #203

Agreed. guillaumeb Dec 2018 #204