Sorry Venezuela Russia And China Will Keep Maduro In Power And Trump Won't Do Anything

[Igel]

1. It's a catch-22.

If Trump does something, it's American imperialism and somehow it's there to obey the Putin overlord. It's overthrowing a legitimately elected government (but nothing like Libya or Assad, which were equally "legimate&quot . It's disposing of a progressive, socialist leader in "our" backyard. It violates self-determination, a human right. At best, it's American militarism and even if merited, it still makes American boastful and encourages interventionism, and what's sacrificing another country to maintain our moral purity?

If Trump does nothing, then it's because Maduro is a Friend of Putin (FOP), and Trump's not allowed to take on FOPs. Or it's all about the oil. We're afraid that the worker's paradise that is Venezuela (just look at the stats as of 2012!) will make us look bad. Maybe Trump's just a blowhard and this is the proof (wait! we need more proof? what?). Or the real target is Cuba.

Or--and I've heard this from somebody who thought this worth not guffawing over--the real reason to not remove Maduro is that the Venezuelan refugees he's causing will eventually each the US, and that wave of Latino refugees will constitute a racist anti-immigrant talking point for Trump.


I suspect Trump will do nothing because that was, in effect, the plan that was worked out. The Lima Group is anti-Maduro, Guaido probably convinced them that street demonstrations and outside backing would be enough--and after he was in charge they'd need a lot of help, which is probably all lined up. Notice that this is what Hungarians believed would have happened '56 and Czechs thought would occur in '67. The anti-authoritarian revolts failed because they had no backing, the story goes, so the USSR squashed the attempted government overthrows. In the case of the later color revolutions, there was perceived backing and the governments fled. The difficulty with that is simple: If the government's willing to engage in serious oppression and has sufficient backing from anti-protestor countries, then the protests will need to be truly massive or they will fail. It's the "protests against Britain in India got freedom, protests against Hitler in Germany would have gotten 'Arbeit macht frei'-dom" contrast.

Personally I think it's a good sign that Maduro &co. are busy moving a lot of assets out of Venezuela and buying good will from countries that many support, like Turkey and Iran. Just that news should weaken their domestic support, but at this point many of their higher-level supporters still see great profit in supporting him and others see great danger in both turning against him should Maduro win and greater danger from the populace should Maduro fail. As for the military, you reward them with food, money, and reward the brass with being in charge of government departments or large businesses, and all the possibility for corruption and illicit gain, you buy their patriotism and loyalty to Maduro's fatherland.