Math says to me that Sanders has a shot at winning the nomination

[karynnj]

25. I note that the "math" is based on him retaining 75% of what he had last time

However, he has come nowhere near that on polls on DailyKos, which both would have a disportionately large share of left leaning Democrats. You would expect that a higher percent of those groups would have voted for Sanders than in the population of Democratic primary voters. So, for your analysis to be reasonable, you would expect that he would now poll better than .75 times his percent in 2016. You would expect numbers in the low to mid 30s IF this were a poll of the entire Democratic primary voting population.

Daily Kos has had two polls, Warren led the first; Harris the second, Sanders in both was at 11 or 12 percent. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/426625-kamala-harris-leads-2020-dem-field-in-second-daily-kos-straw-poll Note that Harris had not announced for the first one.

Even the DFA poll, that Sanders won in 2018, does not show he is retaining 75% of his 2016 numbers. In 2015, Sanders won the DFA endorsement after he got 88% of the DFA membership poll. His December 2018 win was at 36% - and was before any candidate announced. This is a group that disproportionately has a huge number of Sanders supporters.

Sanders strength in 2016 was a function of people strongly allied with him AND many who simply wanted a Hillary Clinton alternative.