General Discussion

NewJeffCT

(56,848 posts)

145. Which candidates will draw away his votes? And, will they stay away?

Mon Jan 28, 2019, 07:43 AM

Jan 2019

Sanders already did poorly with minority voters in 2016.

I can see O'Rourke drawing away *some* of the youth/college vote.

Sherrod Brown possibly could get *some* white working class votes

Warren and Jeff Merkley maybe can get *some* older progressive voters that were part of Sanders' base.

Biden can get some of the white working class votes, but may also take votes from Harris and some more "establishment" Democrats.

As we get to later in the year this year and towards the holidays (Thanksgiving/Christmas), if any of these candidates drop out of the race, will their votes go back to Sanders or will they go to another Democrat in the race?

Without Biden in the race, Sanders has to be the favorite in Iowa and NH unless Warren and O'Rourke can get in there. Sanders was close in Nevada in 2016- is he the favorite in 2020?

Do Harris and Booker divide up the SC vote so it's not a decisive victory for either?

Harris then wins California, but we have the rest of the Super Tuesday states on March 3 as well - Texas (O'Rourke?), NC, VA, etc

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Math says to me that Sanders has a shot at winning the nomination [View all] NewJeffCT Jan 2019 OP

Tell Math to stop drinking in the middle of the day. Squinch Jan 2019 #1

... lapucelle Jan 2019 #3

lol PunkinPi Jan 2019 #5

Bwah! cwydro Jan 2019 #6

Snort!😂 we can do it Jan 2019 #15

+1 dalton99a Jan 2019 #16

LOL! Ha! NurseJackie Jan 2019 #17

Ha! mcar Jan 2019 #29

This!!! MrsCoffee Jan 2019 #46

Fixin' to have an aperitif 🍷after that one! 😆 sprinkleeninow Jan 2019 #55

Go home math, you're drunk! Initech Jan 2019 #58

... lunamagica Jan 2019 #65

There was a smear in my screen that made it look like "Meth says" ... Yikes Hekate Jan 2019 #71

I must have had something on my screen too that made me see "Meth says....".... Pachamama Jan 2019 #146

It was your brain, trying to reformat what you read into a logical sentence Clash City Rocker Feb 2019 #227

! icymist Jan 2019 #93

Okay, you owe me a keyboard NastyRiffraff Jan 2019 #96

... sheshe2 Jan 2019 #101

... betsuni Jan 2019 #122

.... ehrnst Jan 2019 #149

Too early to predict. Laurian Jan 2019 #2

My daughters and I won't caucus for him exboyfil Jan 2019 #7

I don't see him going third party and helping Republicans win. ooky Jan 2019 #18

He's too pure for us Dems & played games right into the Convention. He'll play games again... Hekate Jan 2019 #73

BERNIE IS NOT A DEMOCRAT. HE IS TRYING TO HURT THE PARTY. BERNIE VOTERS GAVE US TRUMP barbiegeek Jan 2019 #156

I do. awesomerwb1 Jan 2019 #78

Ummmm sheshe2 Jan 2019 #108

Ummmm ooky Jan 2019 #123

Okay. sheshe2 Jan 2019 #124

He explained that he didn't go 3rd party last time because of $$ and marketing ehrnst Jan 2019 #151

Which candidates will draw away his votes? And, will they stay away? NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #145

OK - so, let's say he retains HALF of his support NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #148

You've made assumptions to get to your conclusion manor321 Jan 2019 #4

I think you are correct. ooky Jan 2019 #23

Yes indeed. Mariana Jan 2019 #30

Thanks for realizing that NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #142

I think it could be even higher than 75% InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2019 #66

... SidDithers Jan 2019 #83

+1 Power 2 the People Jan 2019 #90

It could be 200%! Or 300%! NastyRiffraff Jan 2019 #97

Right on! (n/t) corbettkroehler Jan 2019 #208

Something else says that a whole lot of those 10 million votes will be spread... TreasonousBastard Jan 2019 #8

You must stop using OLD MATH and get onboard with NEW MATH. democratisphere Jan 2019 #9

Lol ... obnoxiousdrunk Jan 2019 #10

Reality tells me he has no shot calguy Jan 2019 #11

and now he has the #metoo problem trueblue2007 Jan 2019 #57

I agree and I think many of his early supporters soured on him by the end. Chemisse Jan 2019 #88

More fun, and completely useless math... SidDithers Jan 2019 #12

I support Bernie. Whether or not he wins the primary, his voice will be valuable during the debates. earthshine Jan 2019 #13

You got that right!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2019 #67

What exactly is "progressive" about encouraging anyone to smear and denigrate Democrats? NurseJackie Jan 2019 #76

He will have to cough up his tax returns to get in the debates. n/t Apollyonus Jan 2019 #89

When his delegates booed John Lewis at our last convention. GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #105

I remember that. JL dissed Bernie first. earthshine Jan 2019 #107

You so blithely defend booing John Lewis? GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #110

Right. This was the march that he denied Bernie's presence, yes? earthshine Jan 2019 #115

Bernie was now at the Selma March!! LOL. GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #117

Sorry. He was at the March on Washington, not Selma. My bad. earthshine Jan 2019 #125

Please. You defended the booing of John Lewis. GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #127

I did not defend the booing. Enough of that. earthshine Jan 2019 #130

Mitch McConnell was at the Washington march too. comradebillyboy Jan 2019 #134

Your reply does not address my post. So, your point is irrelevant. earthshine Jan 2019 #137

He didn't say that. "I never saw him. I never met him" is what he said. betsuni Jan 2019 #116

Read his/her last reply to me. GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #118

It IS depressing. betsuni Jan 2019 #119

And John Lewis only said he never met Bernie. Because some of his delusional supporters claimed BS GulfCoast66 Jan 2019 #120

Good point about young northern liberals in the 1880s. betsuni Jan 2019 #121

I was at the convention when the sanders delegates pulled this stunt Gothmog Jan 2019 #133

Phones with cameras blanket every square yard of civilization yet you've never posted a video. Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #158

Where you there? Gothmog Jan 2019 #160

Before I go chasing down some rabbit hole and read your long screed, no video? Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #161

Ask your fellow sanders supporters who are JPR posters Gothmog Jan 2019 #164

That's absolutely true. NurseJackie Jan 2019 #168

Are sanders supporters getting worried? Gothmog Jan 2019 #193

Here is a video I pulled off Youtube Demsrule86 Jan 2019 #211

Doesn't anyone even read threads anymore? Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #213

Time will tell Gothmog Feb 2019 #223

How about this: George II Jan 2019 #165

Nope. Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #167

I was there and so were a ton of other true Democrats Gothmog Jan 2019 #170

You know the old saying...."you can lead a horse to water................" George II Jan 2019 #171

S. Bee did a good segment on this Gothmog Jan 2019 #172

That's the one I was referring to, it was hysterical (and too true) George II Jan 2019 #177

I love Sam Bee Gothmog Feb 2019 #225

Again... ehrnst Jan 2019 #174

"To the Bernie or Bust people, you're being ridiculous" Sarah Silverman at the convention. betsuni Jan 2019 #219

"This isn't about Lewis but" Hassin Bin Sober Jan 2019 #221

There was disruption and Lewis was booed. betsuni Jan 2019 #222

The cheering by delegates was because we were warned in advance about this stunt Gothmog Jan 2019 #175

Not to mention, the whole point was that Senator Sanders had fewer delegates. KitSileya Apr 2019 #235

For this thread Gothmog Jan 2019 #169

OMG .. one must be comatose not to have remembered that Apollyonus Jan 2019 #214

I was there and I was shocked when I got the text from my whip Gothmog Feb 2019 #224

Perhaps you missed this: ehrnst Jan 2019 #173

That was outside of the convention that morning Gothmog Jan 2019 #176

The booing at Marcia Fudge when she opened the convention is also on video. ehrnst Jan 2019 #178

There were so many incidents like that incident that I lost count Gothmog Jan 2019 #179

Are you still in denial about what happen at the convention? Gothmog Feb 2019 #232

Some history Gothmog Feb 2019 #233

for This thread Gothmog Mar 2019 #234

JL said he didn't see BS at the march, most likely because BS wasn't there. lapucelle Jan 2019 #155

BERNIE TOOK NRA MONEY FLUSH FROM RUSSIA JUST LIKE TRUMP barbiegeek Jan 2019 #159

THIS n/t Apollyonus Jan 2019 #215

Talk about progressives... sheshe2 Jan 2019 #112

any candidate that pulls the party to the left is valuable in the primary. Grasswire2 Jan 2019 #126

So are you ok with the booing of John Lewis Apollyonus Jan 2019 #216

Nomination for what? Most divisive? we can do it Jan 2019 #14

Kind of agree, kinda don't. Glamrock Jan 2019 #19

Bernie won't last past NH mathematically Apollyonus Jan 2019 #217

Old Towne Media still up and running? KitSileya Apr 2019 #236

Look, I supported Sen. Sanders in the last primary Bettie Jan 2019 #20

His campaign may serve as non-violent "brass knuckles" to promote progressive policy position. David__77 Jan 2019 #36

Those things would be great and I think that we should work toward them Bettie Jan 2019 #77

The Democratic candidates are progressive enough Apollyonus Jan 2019 #92

Math needs to put away the hash pipe. The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2019 #21

I do know a lot of "Bernie" people Bettie Jan 2019 #79

Just about everybody I know supported Bernie in the primaries The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2019 #81

The key point is that many of the candidates this year Bettie Jan 2019 #82

Put away the booze or whatever you are smoking. redstatebluegirl Jan 2019 #22

Math says to me, Donald Trump would love Bernie to run against him. Doodley Jan 2019 #24

+1 2naSalit Jan 2019 #138

I note that the "math" is based on him retaining 75% of what he had last time karynnj Jan 2019 #25

That would mean both parties are running kremlin candidates. RT can host the debates. PSPS Jan 2019 #26

He's a great favorite of their hosta and his former employees/surrogates Ninsianna Jan 2019 #42

Thanks for the chilling reminder. nt Hekate Jan 2019 #87

Math DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2019 #27

Right Glamrock Jan 2019 #33

Except . . . DarthDem Jan 2019 #54

What you said. Sheesh.....🙄 sprinkleeninow Jan 2019 #60

True true. Glamrock Jan 2019 #63

Understood DarthDem Jan 2019 #106

Oh shit that's right! Glamrock Jan 2019 #132

You Got it! DarthDem Jan 2019 #181

However NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #152

Just like in 2016, Sanders will be effectively eliminated once the South and CA vote in early March. LonePirate Jan 2019 #28

And, CA will break heavily for Kamala Harris obamanut2012 Jan 2019 #48

He will keep on trucking Apollyonus Jan 2019 #86

why are you parroting RW smears against Bernie? Grasswire2 Jan 2019 #128

Bernie's tax returns will prove me wrong Apollyonus Jan 2019 #129

your disinformation is very troubling. Grasswire2 Jan 2019 #131

Wrong. The RW loves Bernie. Tad Devine and Paul Manafort R B Garr Jan 2019 #200

K&R CentralMass Jan 2019 #31

The math tells me that he has zero chance, assuming GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #32

He can switch to Dem anytime he feels like it. Glamrock Jan 2019 #34

Get back to me when he actually switches. GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #37

Be prepared. Glamrock Jan 2019 #39

But, not likely as a Democrat, which is what this post is about. GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #41

Hope that's not true Glamrock Jan 2019 #44

And stay warm up there in Chi-town Glamrock Jan 2019 #40

I live in South Carolina. GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #43

And you're a Cubs fan? Glamrock Jan 2019 #45

I was born and raised in Chicago. GoCubsGo Jan 2019 #49

My apologies! Glamrock Jan 2019 #51

Just goes to show you can use math ro prove anything if your assumptions are Takket Jan 2019 #35

No. Perhaps you don't speak Math? Ninsianna Jan 2019 #38

Math is a big part of my daily job NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #189

LOL betsuni Jan 2019 #192

Math is a big part of how I view the world especially stats and politics. Ninsianna Feb 2019 #228

the same concept NewJeffCT Feb 2019 #229

He will not win CA. I'd say he doesn't have a snow ball's chance in hell. wasupaloopa Jan 2019 #47

I am betting Kamala Harris will take CA and most southern states obamanut2012 Jan 2019 #50

Agreed. yardwork Jan 2019 #75

And, CA and many southern states are Super Tuesday states obamanut2012 Jan 2019 #186

You mispelled "meth" LongtimeAZDem Jan 2019 #52

Not if a Dem woman runs shanti Jan 2019 #53

Is this Meth Math? sarcasmo Jan 2019 #56

Public radio runs an ad for 'Math Lab'. (?) sprinkleeninow Jan 2019 #103

no reason to believe he gets 75% qazplm135 Jan 2019 #59

I voted for Bernie in the primary last time VMA131Marine Jan 2019 #61

I think your last sentence says it all DFW Jan 2019 #62

He hasnt confirmed yet he is running AlexSFCA Jan 2019 #64

... LexVegas Jan 2019 #68

Please bernie... do what's right for your country DONT run Thekaspervote Jan 2019 #69

K&R!!!!! Ernesto Jan 2019 #80

K&R barbiegeek Jan 2019 #157

Excellent analysis. Go Bernie! Joe941 Jan 2019 #70

Is he a Democrat yet? Hekate Jan 2019 #72

No ... and he never really is a Democrat. Greywing Jan 2019 #74

Fuzzy Math? nt Apollyonus Jan 2019 #84

That's not even close to how primaries play out. MyNameGoesHere Jan 2019 #85

hope not! he is too much like trump! demigoddess Jan 2019 #91

THIS Apollyonus Jan 2019 #94

A campaign based on assuring people their problems are someone else's fault Recursion Jan 2019 #136

Sanders will not get anywhere close to what he got in 2016 standingtall Jan 2019 #95

That is possible NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #99

Actually I doubt that he retains as much support as you think, BUT he does have a chance andym Jan 2019 #98

Not gonna happen. Warren will take at least half his votes. tinrobot Jan 2019 #100

He had the support of and extensive Russian operation in 2016 delisen Jan 2019 #102

Not new math, it's NewJeffMath! FSogol Jan 2019 #104

Voted Bernie on the primaries last time FreeState Jan 2019 #109

Math must not be your strong suit. honest.abe Jan 2019 #111

Not sure about the exact math... Mike Nelson Jan 2019 #113

I see that Bernie Math is back in action. Garrett78 Jan 2019 #114

I was just about to post about that Bernie math! KitSileya Jan 2019 #135

Bernie supporter last time... sfwriter Jan 2019 #139

You are the kind of person I'm talking about in post #162. (nt) apnu Jan 2019 #163

"Like Bernie, they fled the party the second they realized they are one voice among many here..." sfwriter Jan 2019 #180

The poster is right, though -- many did flee and voted for Trump obamanut2012 Jan 2019 #187

I thought only Democrats could run as a Democrat now? What did I miss? nt allgood33 Jan 2019 #140

NewJeff, start subtracting votes for Howard Schultz, Hortensis Jan 2019 #141

I don't see him as much of a factor NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #143

Me either yet, of course. But we know Bloomberg is Hortensis Jan 2019 #144

You're making too many assumptions in your calculation Blue_Tires Jan 2019 #147

That doesn't take into account vetting that has yet to be done, especially ehrnst Jan 2019 #150

Sanders got away without releasing tax returns last time NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #153

It will be different this time after all the attention focused on DT's hidden returns ehrnst Jan 2019 #154

Do these numbers presume Bernie cats stayed in the Dem party? apnu Jan 2019 #162

O'Malley wasn't on Sanders' left in 2016 NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #191

Next year won't be the same as 2016 - both Biden and Sanders will be four years older... George II Jan 2019 #166

Now math is the friend of Sanders supporters? MyNameGoesHere Jan 2019 #182

when did I say I was a Sanders supporter? NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #183

Obligatory: betsuni Jan 2019 #184

Reading comprehension is not a strength of yours now, is it? NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #188

LOL betsuni Jan 2019 #190

I love this video Gothmog Jan 2019 #195

It never gets old, very well done. betsuni Jan 2019 #220

#BernieMath...nt SidDithers Jan 2019 #185

You saw what I posted in my original post, right? NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #196

There is always a chance Apollyonus Jan 2019 #218

There is no math in January 2019, a year before people vote. themaguffin Jan 2019 #194

Provided those other candidates are still there when the primaries start. LiberalFighter Jan 2019 #197

Bernie has a chance if he runs ZeroSomeBrains Jan 2019 #198

what a list bdamomma Jan 2019 #199

well most of his followers are 4 yrs older now.. they have grown up and got jobs, married, kids... samnsara Jan 2019 #201

Math says to me Sanders would likely lead to a trump -- or other GOPer -- candidate's victory. Hoyt Jan 2019 #202

Bernie's time has past. dubyadiprecession Jan 2019 #203

How many of those 2016 voters that think he is "damaged goods" NewJeffCT Jan 2019 #205

I noticed I-Sanders is seeking photos ops with Ocasio. Hortensis Jan 2019 #210

That was then randr Jan 2019 #204

How novel, another Bernie thread. flibbitygiblets Jan 2019 #206

Of Course He Does (n/t) corbettkroehler Jan 2019 #207

I love DU math, lol cbdo2007 Jan 2019 #209

You forgot to carry the 2. nt TeamPooka Jan 2019 #212

If I understand correctly, the DNC passed a rule over the summer that says hughee99 Feb 2019 #226

Sanders May struggle in primaries Gothmog Feb 2019 #230

Yes - I had posted elsewhere just today NewJeffCT Feb 2019 #231