Since we no longer care about doing the right thing, let's talk about math and black women

[Awsi Dooger]

75. White male voters changed the political math

All of those "emerging majority" studies are based on a shifting demographic(s), while mostly assuming normalcy elsewhere.

We still have the wind at our back but white voters altered things considerably for the worse by moving several points more toward Republicans, and also turning out in greater dependability.

That's why we can't afford any slippage among blacks. The black female vote is indeed the single most important category because our likelihood of gaining that vote is higher than anywhere else. If let's say 100 black females decide to stay home then our opportunity cost is roughly +84 net. Compare to a 60/40 category, which is still awesome but 100 missing votes would be loss of 20 net votes.

In other words, it would require more than 400 additional votes in a 60/40 category to offset the loss of 100 black female voters. That is what the OP is referring to, and we'd be moronic to discount or ignore it.

Donald Trump is already touting that Virginia will "come home" to the GOP based on these developments. I saw that headline today.

I'm not sure Trump realizes that Hispanics have a longstanding tendency to allow benefit of a doubt to the incumbent, no matter which party we are talking about. I doubt our own party leaders and strategists are paying attention to that type of thing, as opposed to clumsily marching forward while taking too much for granted and somehow not differentiating a battle against an incumbent from any other landscape.