IRS Reporting 25% ***Fewer*** People Getting Tax Refund This Year

[Ms. Toad]

72. Not necessarily.

It isn't a matter of "screw{ing} up their taxes."

The withholding tables were changed in a sleight of hand to make it seem as if you got a pay raise.

If less money is taken out (to make it appear you got a raise), and nothing changed in the taxes you owed, you could easily go from a refund to owing - without doing anything at all

Refunds merely balance what you have paid during the year against your end of the year tax bill. So if the government changes what you paid during the year (to make it seem as if you got a raise), even if you owe the exact same amount of taxes, you will get less money back - or even owe.

E.g. If your 2017 tax bill was $1460, and your boss withheld $50/week, you would have paid $2600, and be owed a refund of $1140.

If your 2018 tax bill is also $1460, but the government changed the withholding tables to make it seem like you got a $30/week raise (i.e. they only withheld $20/week), you would have paid $1040 - not enough, so for the exact same tax bill ($1460), with no change on your part (i.e. you didn't screw up), you would owe $420.

Without knowing what the respective tax bills were, the change in refund amounts is totally meaningless.

Note: I'm not saying the taxes owed didn't change - just that the IRS is not providing enough data to determine if it is a real change in taxes owed - or just the sleight of hand backfiring.