How will Republicans handle a hurricane?

[spin]

3. As I predicted the storm track has moved to the west.

Tampa is still within the cone of uncertainty and the storm could shift back to the east.

Living in Florida I for 42 years I have some experience with tropical storms and hurricanes. I usually largely ignore storm tracks that are five days away. Three days out is far more accurate.

Hurricanes can and do strange things. It is very important to consider the cone of uncertainty and ignore the center track.

I have often said in the past that if the center track of a long range forecast passes over the area that I am at, I really don't worry at all. It will move as the storm approaches.

Many here were wishing that the hurricane would hit Tampa and disrupt the Republican convention. The Tampa Bay area is very vulnerable to hurricanes. I evacuated Tampa when Hurricane Charlie was forecast to hit in 2004. It was no fun and I ended up in the worst traffic jam I have ever experienced. I headed south to Lee county where my daughter lived at.

I remember sitting in my daughter's home watching the storm pass by us on its way to Tampa. For some reason Charlie decided to turn hard right and stuck Punta Gorda. I was perhaps 60 miles from the center but while it was a strong cat 4 hurricane it was very small (the highest winds extended only to an area 7 miles form the center). We got some high wind and rain from the storm but suffered no damage.

In the 42 years that I have lived in Florida that is the closest I every came to being in the center of a hurricane. I have experience numerous tropical storms in the Tampa Bay area and where I live now in northern Florida. Tropical storms usually are merely a lot of rain and a few strong gusts of wind.