538.com talk about Trump's chances in 2020

[marylandblue]

7. Media doesn't drive the narrative, Media is driven by narratives.

Media , like most of us, are pretty lazy. If the candidate writes a good story (good, as in, people will watch) for them, they will run with it. This is what Trump does. He drives the narrative publicly with his outrageous lies. He does it privately as well, he often talks to the press off the record. He even leaks his own dirt. All to give the press an easy narrative that favors his view.

Obama was good at this as well. He spoke well in public, he told a good story about hope and harmony. He also cultivated good press relationships behind the scenes.

Hillary was not so good at this. she wasn't compelling in public She kept her distance from the press. She didn't trust them. So they never really heard her story. If killed her.

I see O'Rourke and Buttigieg as the best at writing narratives. I'm backing Inslee because his narrative is about climate change, not himself. That's a novel approach, but it could work.